Scripps Ranch…What say you…

[SD Realtor]

Agreed with all said, the only thing that bums me out about the bond market part is that it may be 1 yr, 5 yrs, 10 yrs… who knows…so tailoring your decision to be bond market based may not be a good idea. What good is a great school district if your kids are closer to college then kindergarden after the wait? Consideration of alternate housing markets in other states makes more sense to me then trying to time the bond market if the decision is strictly based on dollars and sense. Even if you rationalize it and say I will not buy but I will rent, and your rent is double or triple the cost of a mortgage in another state with strong school districts… then which is the better decision?

[Ren]

I totally agree with the realtors in this thread that money isn’t an issue for many, many people. Your perception really depends on the crowd you spend your time with. If you have mostly blue collar friends, then yeah you’re not going to see much money. My wife and I have a circle of 40 or so close friends (the ones you invite to parties). Between the two of us, we make about $150k, yet our income is on the low end compared to those friends. Of the 40, there are only 6 (three couples) who make less than we do. One of those couples actually chooses to work minimally while they wait for a large inheritance. And these aren’t people who all grew up together in Beverly Hills or something, they’re from all walks of life and all areas of the country, mid-30’s to mid-40’s, most white collar professionals with degrees. Several of them (including us, thankfully) got lucky with stock options. Others run successful businesses that have been in the family for decades. Frugal parents are starting to die off, and they have paid-for houses and nice portfolios thanks to union work.

Fortunately income isn’t the only force that drives real estate prices. They will rise and fall regardless of the available money. I’m seeing a long, slow decline as SD R does.

[Ren]

I totally agree with the realtors in this thread that money isn’t an issue for many, many people. Your perception really depends on the crowd you spend your time with. If you have mostly blue collar friends, then yeah you’re not going to see much money. My wife and I have a circle of 40 or so close friends (the ones you invite to parties). Between the two of us, we make about $150k, yet our income is on the low end compared to those friends. Of the 40, there are only 6 (three couples) who make less than we do. One of those couples actually chooses to work minimally while they wait for a large inheritance. And these aren’t people who all grew up together in Beverly Hills or something, they’re from all walks of life and all areas of the country, mid-30’s to mid-40’s, most white collar professionals with degrees. Several of them (including us, thankfully) got lucky with stock options. Others run successful businesses that have been in the family for decades. Frugal parents are starting to die off, and they have paid-for houses and nice portfolios thanks to union work.

Fortunately income isn’t the only force that drives real estate prices. They will rise and fall regardless of the available money. I’m seeing a long, slow decline as SD R does.

[Ren]

I totally agree with the realtors in this thread that money isn’t an issue for many, many people. Your perception really depends on the crowd you spend your time with. If you have mostly blue collar friends, then yeah you’re not going to see much money. My wife and I have a circle of 40 or so close friends (the ones you invite to parties). Between the two of us, we make about $150k, yet our income is on the low end compared to those friends. Of the 40, there are only 6 (three couples) who make less than we do. One of those couples actually chooses to work minimally while they wait for a large inheritance. And these aren’t people who all grew up together in Beverly Hills or something, they’re from all walks of life and all areas of the country, mid-30’s to mid-40’s, most white collar professionals with degrees. Several of them (including us, thankfully) got lucky with stock options. Others run successful businesses that have been in the family for decades. Frugal parents are starting to die off, and they have paid-for houses and nice portfolios thanks to union work.

Fortunately income isn’t the only force that drives real estate prices. They will rise and fall regardless of the available money. I’m seeing a long, slow decline as SD R does.

[Ren]

I totally agree with the realtors in this thread that money isn’t an issue for many, many people. Your perception really depends on the crowd you spend your time with. If you have mostly blue collar friends, then yeah you’re not going to see much money. My wife and I have a circle of 40 or so close friends (the ones you invite to parties). Between the two of us, we make about $150k, yet our income is on the low end compared to those friends. Of the 40, there are only 6 (three couples) who make less than we do. One of those couples actually chooses to work minimally while they wait for a large inheritance. And these aren’t people who all grew up together in Beverly Hills or something, they’re from all walks of life and all areas of the country, mid-30’s to mid-40’s, most white collar professionals with degrees. Several of them (including us, thankfully) got lucky with stock options. Others run successful businesses that have been in the family for decades. Frugal parents are starting to die off, and they have paid-for houses and nice portfolios thanks to union work.

Fortunately income isn’t the only force that drives real estate prices. They will rise and fall regardless of the available money. I’m seeing a long, slow decline as SD R does.

[Ren]

I totally agree with the realtors in this thread that money isn’t an issue for many, many people. Your perception really depends on the crowd you spend your time with. If you have mostly blue collar friends, then yeah you’re not going to see much money. My wife and I have a circle of 40 or so close friends (the ones you invite to parties). Between the two of us, we make about $150k, yet our income is on the low end compared to those friends. Of the 40, there are only 6 (three couples) who make less than we do. One of those couples actually chooses to work minimally while they wait for a large inheritance. And these aren’t people who all grew up together in Beverly Hills or something, they’re from all walks of life and all areas of the country, mid-30’s to mid-40’s, most white collar professionals with degrees. Several of them (including us, thankfully) got lucky with stock options. Others run successful businesses that have been in the family for decades. Frugal parents are starting to die off, and they have paid-for houses and nice portfolios thanks to union work.

Fortunately income isn’t the only force that drives real estate prices. They will rise and fall regardless of the available money. I’m seeing a long, slow decline as SD R does.

[localguy]

Warren Buffett has a saying, “When everyone is greedy, be cautious. When everyone is cautious, be greedy”. This mindset worked for us. We never ATM’ed our previous house, and dumped it when everything tanked in 2008. We were fortunate to land a great deal, at that time, in SB. As a previous post alluded to, considering who else is in the same market for the house we purchased, we scored. I don’t count on the house being an investment vehicle. If in 20 years it is worth what I paid for it, great. I would venture a guess that many Scripps Ranch buyers are somewhat insulated against market fluctuations.
localguy

[localguy]

Warren Buffett has a saying, “When everyone is greedy, be cautious. When everyone is cautious, be greedy”. This mindset worked for us. We never ATM’ed our previous house, and dumped it when everything tanked in 2008. We were fortunate to land a great deal, at that time, in SB. As a previous post alluded to, considering who else is in the same market for the house we purchased, we scored. I don’t count on the house being an investment vehicle. If in 20 years it is worth what I paid for it, great. I would venture a guess that many Scripps Ranch buyers are somewhat insulated against market fluctuations.
localguy

[localguy]

Warren Buffett has a saying, “When everyone is greedy, be cautious. When everyone is cautious, be greedy”. This mindset worked for us. We never ATM’ed our previous house, and dumped it when everything tanked in 2008. We were fortunate to land a great deal, at that time, in SB. As a previous post alluded to, considering who else is in the same market for the house we purchased, we scored. I don’t count on the house being an investment vehicle. If in 20 years it is worth what I paid for it, great. I would venture a guess that many Scripps Ranch buyers are somewhat insulated against market fluctuations.
localguy

[localguy]

Warren Buffett has a saying, “When everyone is greedy, be cautious. When everyone is cautious, be greedy”. This mindset worked for us. We never ATM’ed our previous house, and dumped it when everything tanked in 2008. We were fortunate to land a great deal, at that time, in SB. As a previous post alluded to, considering who else is in the same market for the house we purchased, we scored. I don’t count on the house being an investment vehicle. If in 20 years it is worth what I paid for it, great. I would venture a guess that many Scripps Ranch buyers are somewhat insulated against market fluctuations.
localguy

[localguy]

Warren Buffett has a saying, “When everyone is greedy, be cautious. When everyone is cautious, be greedy”. This mindset worked for us. We never ATM’ed our previous house, and dumped it when everything tanked in 2008. We were fortunate to land a great deal, at that time, in SB. As a previous post alluded to, considering who else is in the same market for the house we purchased, we scored. I don’t count on the house being an investment vehicle. If in 20 years it is worth what I paid for it, great. I would venture a guess that many Scripps Ranch buyers are somewhat insulated against market fluctuations.
localguy

[Scarlett]

[quote=sdrealtor]Interest rates werent 9% in 1997 when I bought my 1st home here and when they are higher folks will just opt for adjustable rates in the short term and refi when they drop. Expecting and waiting for 9% interest rates is a folly IMO and will leave you waiting to buy well past the prime years of your life. Rules of thumb like that are dangerous to get stuck on. Watch, run numbersd and take the plunge when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for some mythical number.[/quote]

Are you saying that increasing rates from current to e.g. 9% will not affect the prices that much because of the ARMs and such?

You can run now all the numbers you want but if the rates go to 9% or God forbid, double digits, I believe the housing prices will also go down significantly, (i.e. > 20%). If you have to sell for whatever reason at that point, you will be taking a bath. (to be clear, I am talking more mid-range housing), that’s what most potential buyers are afraid of. But, you have to tolerate some risk in RE, and go on with your life, so maybe you buy something less that what you could afford, or move to another state.

[Scarlett]

[quote=sdrealtor]Interest rates werent 9% in 1997 when I bought my 1st home here and when they are higher folks will just opt for adjustable rates in the short term and refi when they drop. Expecting and waiting for 9% interest rates is a folly IMO and will leave you waiting to buy well past the prime years of your life. Rules of thumb like that are dangerous to get stuck on. Watch, run numbersd and take the plunge when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for some mythical number.[/quote]

Are you saying that increasing rates from current to e.g. 9% will not affect the prices that much because of the ARMs and such?

You can run now all the numbers you want but if the rates go to 9% or God forbid, double digits, I believe the housing prices will also go down significantly, (i.e. > 20%). If you have to sell for whatever reason at that point, you will be taking a bath. (to be clear, I am talking more mid-range housing), that’s what most potential buyers are afraid of. But, you have to tolerate some risk in RE, and go on with your life, so maybe you buy something less that what you could afford, or move to another state.

[Scarlett]

[quote=sdrealtor]Interest rates werent 9% in 1997 when I bought my 1st home here and when they are higher folks will just opt for adjustable rates in the short term and refi when they drop. Expecting and waiting for 9% interest rates is a folly IMO and will leave you waiting to buy well past the prime years of your life. Rules of thumb like that are dangerous to get stuck on. Watch, run numbersd and take the plunge when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for some mythical number.[/quote]

Are you saying that increasing rates from current to e.g. 9% will not affect the prices that much because of the ARMs and such?

You can run now all the numbers you want but if the rates go to 9% or God forbid, double digits, I believe the housing prices will also go down significantly, (i.e. > 20%). If you have to sell for whatever reason at that point, you will be taking a bath. (to be clear, I am talking more mid-range housing), that’s what most potential buyers are afraid of. But, you have to tolerate some risk in RE, and go on with your life, so maybe you buy something less that what you could afford, or move to another state.

[Scarlett]

[quote=sdrealtor]Interest rates werent 9% in 1997 when I bought my 1st home here and when they are higher folks will just opt for adjustable rates in the short term and refi when they drop. Expecting and waiting for 9% interest rates is a folly IMO and will leave you waiting to buy well past the prime years of your life. Rules of thumb like that are dangerous to get stuck on. Watch, run numbersd and take the plunge when it makes sense for you rather than waiting for some mythical number.[/quote]

Are you saying that increasing rates from current to e.g. 9% will not affect the prices that much because of the ARMs and such?

You can run now all the numbers you want but if the rates go to 9% or God forbid, double digits, I believe the housing prices will also go down significantly, (i.e. > 20%). If you have to sell for whatever reason at that point, you will be taking a bath. (to be clear, I am talking more mid-range housing), that’s what most potential buyers are afraid of. But, you have to tolerate some risk in RE, and go on with your life, so maybe you buy something less that what you could afford, or move to another state.

[Author]

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