Santa Fe Trails – Getting Close

[sdrealtor]

AN
My comment was not a knock on MM but rather a reference to the area you follow like a hawk and base your conclusions on. I also suspect the schools you are referencing are in Northwest MM (more the exception than the rule in MM) which are probably alot further from penciling than the SE MM homes which already do.

In case you missed it, I clarified my post which was admittedly not clear. While some homes rent vs by made sense in my area in 1997 (I bought one) homes like the one we are discussing never did. Bigger nicer homes rarely cash flow and probably wont in NW MM either. The homes which cash flow are small, low end properties like 3BR/2BA 1100 sq ft homes in SE MM.

Lastly the school for that home is OPE (Olivehain Pioneer and the API score is 931. 40 points is a big margin. Its the difference between very good schools and the creme of the crop. People who can afford it will overpay for the best…. always have and always will. It’s part of the ownership premium for an area like this.

BTW, I have great respect for your culture as they place a huge emphasis on education and value it greatly like my own.

[an]

sdrealtor, I follow MM, PQ, and 4S very closely. It’s just that MM has come the closest to penciling out right now. You are right, the elementary school I mentioned are for the NW area, but middle schools are for the west area and MMHS is for all of MM.

I did miss read your comment and I was about to fix my own, but you posted before I got a chance to. I do see some 3/2 1100 sq-ft houses in NW MM that are also around $320k. That comes to about 10-20k more than SE MM. But regarding this house, how much was rent of similar house back then? I’m trying to see what kind of premium people give to such house when compare to rent at the bottom. I don’t know this area well, that’s why I’m asking your for more info regarding this area at the bottom of last cycle to see where we might be at the bottom of this cycle.

Sorry for choosing the wrong Elementary school. I do agree that people will overpay for the best. I’m not saying they don’t. But I hardly consider these school cream of the crop when compare to CV. CV schools are at least 30-40 points higher than the schools in SFT across the board. Don’t take this as me knocking on your ‘hood. I really like these areas. Just trying to know more about it.

[an]

sdrealtor, I follow MM, PQ, and 4S very closely. It’s just that MM has come the closest to penciling out right now. You are right, the elementary school I mentioned are for the NW area, but middle schools are for the west area and MMHS is for all of MM.

I did miss read your comment and I was about to fix my own, but you posted before I got a chance to. I do see some 3/2 1100 sq-ft houses in NW MM that are also around $320k. That comes to about 10-20k more than SE MM. But regarding this house, how much was rent of similar house back then? I’m trying to see what kind of premium people give to such house when compare to rent at the bottom. I don’t know this area well, that’s why I’m asking your for more info regarding this area at the bottom of last cycle to see where we might be at the bottom of this cycle.

Sorry for choosing the wrong Elementary school. I do agree that people will overpay for the best. I’m not saying they don’t. But I hardly consider these school cream of the crop when compare to CV. CV schools are at least 30-40 points higher than the schools in SFT across the board. Don’t take this as me knocking on your ‘hood. I really like these areas. Just trying to know more about it.

[an]

sdrealtor, I follow MM, PQ, and 4S very closely. It’s just that MM has come the closest to penciling out right now. You are right, the elementary school I mentioned are for the NW area, but middle schools are for the west area and MMHS is for all of MM.

I did miss read your comment and I was about to fix my own, but you posted before I got a chance to. I do see some 3/2 1100 sq-ft houses in NW MM that are also around $320k. That comes to about 10-20k more than SE MM. But regarding this house, how much was rent of similar house back then? I’m trying to see what kind of premium people give to such house when compare to rent at the bottom. I don’t know this area well, that’s why I’m asking your for more info regarding this area at the bottom of last cycle to see where we might be at the bottom of this cycle.

Sorry for choosing the wrong Elementary school. I do agree that people will overpay for the best. I’m not saying they don’t. But I hardly consider these school cream of the crop when compare to CV. CV schools are at least 30-40 points higher than the schools in SFT across the board. Don’t take this as me knocking on your ‘hood. I really like these areas. Just trying to know more about it.

[an]

sdrealtor, I follow MM, PQ, and 4S very closely. It’s just that MM has come the closest to penciling out right now. You are right, the elementary school I mentioned are for the NW area, but middle schools are for the west area and MMHS is for all of MM.

I did miss read your comment and I was about to fix my own, but you posted before I got a chance to. I do see some 3/2 1100 sq-ft houses in NW MM that are also around $320k. That comes to about 10-20k more than SE MM. But regarding this house, how much was rent of similar house back then? I’m trying to see what kind of premium people give to such house when compare to rent at the bottom. I don’t know this area well, that’s why I’m asking your for more info regarding this area at the bottom of last cycle to see where we might be at the bottom of this cycle.

Sorry for choosing the wrong Elementary school. I do agree that people will overpay for the best. I’m not saying they don’t. But I hardly consider these school cream of the crop when compare to CV. CV schools are at least 30-40 points higher than the schools in SFT across the board. Don’t take this as me knocking on your ‘hood. I really like these areas. Just trying to know more about it.

[an]

sdrealtor, I follow MM, PQ, and 4S very closely. It’s just that MM has come the closest to penciling out right now. You are right, the elementary school I mentioned are for the NW area, but middle schools are for the west area and MMHS is for all of MM.

I did miss read your comment and I was about to fix my own, but you posted before I got a chance to. I do see some 3/2 1100 sq-ft houses in NW MM that are also around $320k. That comes to about 10-20k more than SE MM. But regarding this house, how much was rent of similar house back then? I’m trying to see what kind of premium people give to such house when compare to rent at the bottom. I don’t know this area well, that’s why I’m asking your for more info regarding this area at the bottom of last cycle to see where we might be at the bottom of this cycle.

Sorry for choosing the wrong Elementary school. I do agree that people will overpay for the best. I’m not saying they don’t. But I hardly consider these school cream of the crop when compare to CV. CV schools are at least 30-40 points higher than the schools in SFT across the board. Don’t take this as me knocking on your ‘hood. I really like these areas. Just trying to know more about it.

[sdrealtor]

AN
My guess is that rent in 1997 would have been about $2500 for a home that size. I just thought about it and the current rent of 3500 comes out to 40% higher. That’s another data point which suggests 40% appreciation since the bottom is a very reasonable assumption.

My hypothesis for an overshot bottom has always been about $625K for homes like this in this area. You can go back 2 years and you will find my posts confirming that. I dont believe they will get lower than that and even that would take some work. To be clear, I am not talking about 1 or 2 homes selling at that price but rather that being a general price level for homes like that in the area.

BTW, you chose the right elementary school not the wrong one and hopefully thats the one you are angling for. But it is likely the exception. In my area about half the elementary schools (4 of them fall in this range).

Also FWIW, API scores of 930 put a school in the top tier of schools in the county. Probably with a ranking somewhere between 10 and 20 in a county of close to 3 Million people. I’d call that the creme of the crop.

One quick question AN. What do you think prices in PQ will look like this Winter for a decent 3/2 SFR with at least 1400 sq ft?

[sdrealtor]

AN
My guess is that rent in 1997 would have been about $2500 for a home that size. I just thought about it and the current rent of 3500 comes out to 40% higher. That’s another data point which suggests 40% appreciation since the bottom is a very reasonable assumption.

My hypothesis for an overshot bottom has always been about $625K for homes like this in this area. You can go back 2 years and you will find my posts confirming that. I dont believe they will get lower than that and even that would take some work. To be clear, I am not talking about 1 or 2 homes selling at that price but rather that being a general price level for homes like that in the area.

BTW, you chose the right elementary school not the wrong one and hopefully thats the one you are angling for. But it is likely the exception. In my area about half the elementary schools (4 of them fall in this range).

Also FWIW, API scores of 930 put a school in the top tier of schools in the county. Probably with a ranking somewhere between 10 and 20 in a county of close to 3 Million people. I’d call that the creme of the crop.

One quick question AN. What do you think prices in PQ will look like this Winter for a decent 3/2 SFR with at least 1400 sq ft?

[sdrealtor]

AN
My guess is that rent in 1997 would have been about $2500 for a home that size. I just thought about it and the current rent of 3500 comes out to 40% higher. That’s another data point which suggests 40% appreciation since the bottom is a very reasonable assumption.

My hypothesis for an overshot bottom has always been about $625K for homes like this in this area. You can go back 2 years and you will find my posts confirming that. I dont believe they will get lower than that and even that would take some work. To be clear, I am not talking about 1 or 2 homes selling at that price but rather that being a general price level for homes like that in the area.

BTW, you chose the right elementary school not the wrong one and hopefully thats the one you are angling for. But it is likely the exception. In my area about half the elementary schools (4 of them fall in this range).

Also FWIW, API scores of 930 put a school in the top tier of schools in the county. Probably with a ranking somewhere between 10 and 20 in a county of close to 3 Million people. I’d call that the creme of the crop.

One quick question AN. What do you think prices in PQ will look like this Winter for a decent 3/2 SFR with at least 1400 sq ft?

[sdrealtor]

AN
My guess is that rent in 1997 would have been about $2500 for a home that size. I just thought about it and the current rent of 3500 comes out to 40% higher. That’s another data point which suggests 40% appreciation since the bottom is a very reasonable assumption.

My hypothesis for an overshot bottom has always been about $625K for homes like this in this area. You can go back 2 years and you will find my posts confirming that. I dont believe they will get lower than that and even that would take some work. To be clear, I am not talking about 1 or 2 homes selling at that price but rather that being a general price level for homes like that in the area.

BTW, you chose the right elementary school not the wrong one and hopefully thats the one you are angling for. But it is likely the exception. In my area about half the elementary schools (4 of them fall in this range).

Also FWIW, API scores of 930 put a school in the top tier of schools in the county. Probably with a ranking somewhere between 10 and 20 in a county of close to 3 Million people. I’d call that the creme of the crop.

One quick question AN. What do you think prices in PQ will look like this Winter for a decent 3/2 SFR with at least 1400 sq ft?

[sdrealtor]

AN
My guess is that rent in 1997 would have been about $2500 for a home that size. I just thought about it and the current rent of 3500 comes out to 40% higher. That’s another data point which suggests 40% appreciation since the bottom is a very reasonable assumption.

My hypothesis for an overshot bottom has always been about $625K for homes like this in this area. You can go back 2 years and you will find my posts confirming that. I dont believe they will get lower than that and even that would take some work. To be clear, I am not talking about 1 or 2 homes selling at that price but rather that being a general price level for homes like that in the area.

BTW, you chose the right elementary school not the wrong one and hopefully thats the one you are angling for. But it is likely the exception. In my area about half the elementary schools (4 of them fall in this range).

Also FWIW, API scores of 930 put a school in the top tier of schools in the county. Probably with a ranking somewhere between 10 and 20 in a county of close to 3 Million people. I’d call that the creme of the crop.

One quick question AN. What do you think prices in PQ will look like this Winter for a decent 3/2 SFR with at least 1400 sq ft?

[zzz]

Thanks pemeliza and sdr, very helpful to get some specifics. I think its easy to look at price and well staged homes, but not so easy to evaluate the other details, such as construction, schools covering the entire age specturm, neighborhood upkeep/culture unless you have context based on history or experience. I’m really not familiar with the nuances of North County, schools, construction, etc so this is all great information. Come to think of it, I don’t think I’m really that familiar with any neighborhood when you break it down by community within the same zip code or when you go 5-10 miles in any direction of a given spot. I’ve been very “casually” evaluating the market for some time now and the devil is always in the details.

[zzz]

Thanks pemeliza and sdr, very helpful to get some specifics. I think its easy to look at price and well staged homes, but not so easy to evaluate the other details, such as construction, schools covering the entire age specturm, neighborhood upkeep/culture unless you have context based on history or experience. I’m really not familiar with the nuances of North County, schools, construction, etc so this is all great information. Come to think of it, I don’t think I’m really that familiar with any neighborhood when you break it down by community within the same zip code or when you go 5-10 miles in any direction of a given spot. I’ve been very “casually” evaluating the market for some time now and the devil is always in the details.

[zzz]

Thanks pemeliza and sdr, very helpful to get some specifics. I think its easy to look at price and well staged homes, but not so easy to evaluate the other details, such as construction, schools covering the entire age specturm, neighborhood upkeep/culture unless you have context based on history or experience. I’m really not familiar with the nuances of North County, schools, construction, etc so this is all great information. Come to think of it, I don’t think I’m really that familiar with any neighborhood when you break it down by community within the same zip code or when you go 5-10 miles in any direction of a given spot. I’ve been very “casually” evaluating the market for some time now and the devil is always in the details.

[zzz]

Thanks pemeliza and sdr, very helpful to get some specifics. I think its easy to look at price and well staged homes, but not so easy to evaluate the other details, such as construction, schools covering the entire age specturm, neighborhood upkeep/culture unless you have context based on history or experience. I’m really not familiar with the nuances of North County, schools, construction, etc so this is all great information. Come to think of it, I don’t think I’m really that familiar with any neighborhood when you break it down by community within the same zip code or when you go 5-10 miles in any direction of a given spot. I’ve been very “casually” evaluating the market for some time now and the devil is always in the details.

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