Santa Fe Trails – Getting Close

[smshorttimer]

sdrealtor,

Why do you counter pointless snark with facts, eh?

Seriously, tho, it’s still a box (with a dull kitchen to boot) — and yes, I get it that tastes are subjective. If I had $850K to spend on a house, I’d go inland to find a custom-type place.

Lots of homes are close to healthcare, restaurants, freeway, libraries etc. I suppose it’s nice to live near Four Seasons Aviara but most nearby residents probably never step foot there. (Hey, it’s neat that I’m five minutes from the Golden Door!) No, not all are five minutes to beach and in good school districts.

[waiting for bottom]

sdr – you still think a place like this is 750 in 2009 and 650 in 2010? Or is this the type of house that won’t make it on the market during bad times?

[waiting for bottom]

sdr – you still think a place like this is 750 in 2009 and 650 in 2010? Or is this the type of house that won’t make it on the market during bad times?

[waiting for bottom]

sdr – you still think a place like this is 750 in 2009 and 650 in 2010? Or is this the type of house that won’t make it on the market during bad times?

[waiting for bottom]

sdr – you still think a place like this is 750 in 2009 and 650 in 2010? Or is this the type of house that won’t make it on the market during bad times?

[waiting for bottom]

sdr – you still think a place like this is 750 in 2009 and 650 in 2010? Or is this the type of house that won’t make it on the market during bad times?

[CA renter]

sdrealtor,

Wasn’t that house just as close to the beach, shopping, schools, etc. back in 1997, when it was selling in the $300K range? (don’t remember exactly when Leucadia was put all the way through, but you know what I’m saying)

Not trying to give you a hard time! 😉 Just another perspective.

[CA renter]

sdrealtor,

Wasn’t that house just as close to the beach, shopping, schools, etc. back in 1997, when it was selling in the $300K range? (don’t remember exactly when Leucadia was put all the way through, but you know what I’m saying)

Not trying to give you a hard time! 😉 Just another perspective.

[CA renter]

sdrealtor,

Wasn’t that house just as close to the beach, shopping, schools, etc. back in 1997, when it was selling in the $300K range? (don’t remember exactly when Leucadia was put all the way through, but you know what I’m saying)

Not trying to give you a hard time! 😉 Just another perspective.

[CA renter]

sdrealtor,

Wasn’t that house just as close to the beach, shopping, schools, etc. back in 1997, when it was selling in the $300K range? (don’t remember exactly when Leucadia was put all the way through, but you know what I’m saying)

Not trying to give you a hard time! 😉 Just another perspective.

[CA renter]

sdrealtor,

Wasn’t that house just as close to the beach, shopping, schools, etc. back in 1997, when it was selling in the $300K range? (don’t remember exactly when Leucadia was put all the way through, but you know what I’m saying)

Not trying to give you a hard time! 😉 Just another perspective.

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.

That house also has a pool and a large lot requiring mucho landscaping expense. Let’s be ultra-conservative and call it $450K.

Since that time the area has improved dramatically (though long time locals might not agree). In 1997, you couldnt find a place that served a decent dinner around here after 9 PM. If there was such a place we never found it. The schools are better, the shopping is better, there are numerous new medical office buidlings and specialists you previously had to drive to UTC/Kearny Mesa now have offices here. And yes Leucadia Blvd now makes that house about 10 minutes closer to the beach/freeway. The diversity of employment is drmatacilly better now than in 1997. So there are definitely very siginifcant improvements since 1997 which was a pricing bottom with high interest rates.

Let’s continue being ultra-conservative and give ourselves 3% inflation since the overshot bottom. It’s 11 YEARS LATER! The 3% compounded over 11 years is about 40%. Throw the 40% on top of our conservative cost estimate (using 1997 costs not 2008 costs) and ya got $623K.

If you think that house will see $450K I’d like some of what you’re smoking. I don’t think a house like that will see $625K but could see it breaking $700K if interest rates climb back into the 9’s.

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.

That house also has a pool and a large lot requiring mucho landscaping expense. Let’s be ultra-conservative and call it $450K.

Since that time the area has improved dramatically (though long time locals might not agree). In 1997, you couldnt find a place that served a decent dinner around here after 9 PM. If there was such a place we never found it. The schools are better, the shopping is better, there are numerous new medical office buidlings and specialists you previously had to drive to UTC/Kearny Mesa now have offices here. And yes Leucadia Blvd now makes that house about 10 minutes closer to the beach/freeway. The diversity of employment is drmatacilly better now than in 1997. So there are definitely very siginifcant improvements since 1997 which was a pricing bottom with high interest rates.

Let’s continue being ultra-conservative and give ourselves 3% inflation since the overshot bottom. It’s 11 YEARS LATER! The 3% compounded over 11 years is about 40%. Throw the 40% on top of our conservative cost estimate (using 1997 costs not 2008 costs) and ya got $623K.

If you think that house will see $450K I’d like some of what you’re smoking. I don’t think a house like that will see $625K but could see it breaking $700K if interest rates climb back into the 9’s.

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.

That house also has a pool and a large lot requiring mucho landscaping expense. Let’s be ultra-conservative and call it $450K.

Since that time the area has improved dramatically (though long time locals might not agree). In 1997, you couldnt find a place that served a decent dinner around here after 9 PM. If there was such a place we never found it. The schools are better, the shopping is better, there are numerous new medical office buidlings and specialists you previously had to drive to UTC/Kearny Mesa now have offices here. And yes Leucadia Blvd now makes that house about 10 minutes closer to the beach/freeway. The diversity of employment is drmatacilly better now than in 1997. So there are definitely very siginifcant improvements since 1997 which was a pricing bottom with high interest rates.

Let’s continue being ultra-conservative and give ourselves 3% inflation since the overshot bottom. It’s 11 YEARS LATER! The 3% compounded over 11 years is about 40%. Throw the 40% on top of our conservative cost estimate (using 1997 costs not 2008 costs) and ya got $623K.

If you think that house will see $450K I’d like some of what you’re smoking. I don’t think a house like that will see $625K but could see it breaking $700K if interest rates climb back into the 9’s.

[sdrealtor]

CA Renter,
That house sold for just under $400K in July of 1997. To close in July 1997 that house was likely purchased under contract in 1996 pulling it deeper down. I bought RE in this area in 1997 and it was cheaper to buy that to rent with 5% down, PMI and interest rates on 5/1 ARM’s in the mid 8’s. In 1997 we were at the bottom of the last cycle and had overshot on the way down.

That house also has a pool and a large lot requiring mucho landscaping expense. Let’s be ultra-conservative and call it $450K.

Since that time the area has improved dramatically (though long time locals might not agree). In 1997, you couldnt find a place that served a decent dinner around here after 9 PM. If there was such a place we never found it. The schools are better, the shopping is better, there are numerous new medical office buidlings and specialists you previously had to drive to UTC/Kearny Mesa now have offices here. And yes Leucadia Blvd now makes that house about 10 minutes closer to the beach/freeway. The diversity of employment is drmatacilly better now than in 1997. So there are definitely very siginifcant improvements since 1997 which was a pricing bottom with high interest rates.

Let’s continue being ultra-conservative and give ourselves 3% inflation since the overshot bottom. It’s 11 YEARS LATER! The 3% compounded over 11 years is about 40%. Throw the 40% on top of our conservative cost estimate (using 1997 costs not 2008 costs) and ya got $623K.

If you think that house will see $450K I’d like some of what you’re smoking. I don’t think a house like that will see $625K but could see it breaking $700K if interest rates climb back into the 9’s.

[Author]

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