Sandicor MLS Statics / AUGUST

[SD Realtor]

lol…

“Are you high?”

Now that is a post… little lady direct and to the point.

SD Realtor

[little lady]

“little lady direct and to the point.”

Too funny, one of my best friends said that to me this morning…guess I am…who knew?

[Bugs]

Standing inventory tells a story, but the number of REOs and short sale listings in that standing inventory would tell a more important story.

2300+ NODs for August could translate out to 1400 foreclosures by December. Even if the number of foreclosures were to plateau (which basically can’t happen at this point), think about what a 1400/month REO rate does to a 2200/month avg rate of sales.

For the period during which we’re adding 1400 foreclosures to the standing inventory every month it almost doesn’t matter what the other 20,000 listings do. That number could drop to 5,000 listings – not that it will – and it still wouldn’t matter because the REOs all have to be sold for whatever the market will bear at that time, regardless of the losses involved.

For those couple of you who can’t see this happening right in front of your eyes I can only express my profound condolences. It’s people like you who are surprised when the train that’s coming down the track you’re standing on hits you.

[schizo2buyORnot]

Are you blind or just can’t read a statistical read out? The link to inventory, not sales, clearly lays out that for the past 2 months the yoy inventory numbers have been essentially flat. Sales have weakened and thus the “months of inventory” has expanded. Actual inventory numbers yoy have been flat. Attack the numbers/statistics all you want’ its right there.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Artifact]

schizo –

Like I said in the other thread you posted that data in, I agree that yoy has stayed relatively flat.

I still think that what is interesting in the data you are citing is that last year at this point inventory was falling, this year it is still going up. What happens next month will be interesting – if inventory stays level or increases, the yoy comparison will start changing in a hurry. I do think it is an artifact of the decreasing sales, like you said.

T

[Anonymous]

I guess i dont understand months of inventory…

From the Sandicor stats, just the last 3 months:

Month / New listings / # Closed Sales
Jun / 7124 / 2468
Jul / 7014 / 2189
Aug / 6936 / 2182

After June we have (7124-2468)=4656 remaining unsold.
Then, plus the new listings in July (7014+4656)=11,670.
After July we have (11,670-2189)=9481 remaining unsold.
Then, plus the new listings in Aug (9481+6936)=16,417.
After Aug we have (16,417-2182)=14,235 remaining unsold.

So, with an average (Jun-Aug) monthly sales of 2280, that leaves us with (14,235/2280)=6 months of unsold inventory. That’s 6 months of inventory accumulated in ONLY the last 3 months. If we add in all the unsolds from Jan-May, or prior, it seems like the months of unsold inventory should skyrocket accordingly.

So what am I missing? Thanks.

[little lady]

It’s not flat according to the Union Tribune, INFACT quite the opposite.

But what do they know, so go ahead BUY, BUY, BUY!

A fool and his money are soon parted anyway.

Put this in your pipe and smoke it………..

——————————————————————————–

Median house value dips $20K
With sales falling, the median price of homes here tumbles to $475,000, down $20,000 from a year ago and $14,000 from a month earlier

CHECK IT OUT,”schitzo2buy”

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070912-9999-bn12housing.ht…

[schizo2buyORnot]

little one . . . you’ll notice from my posts I don’t unilateraly engage in the inane ad hominem attacks or worthless blather of “go ahead buy a house! a huh a huh a huh yuck yuck yuck . . . . etc.” I cite hard facts and statistics and ask for feedback from PIGS as to the facts’ meanings. But I am amused when my anonymous alias is attacked by someone such as you and I do rather enjoy responding . . . thanks for the entertainment.

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[little lady]

“I cite hard facts and statistics ”

NOT

YOU are delusional………San Diego County housing prices continued their slide in August as home sales dropped to a 15-year low, DataQuick Information Systems reported yesterday. READ IT and weep sucker………..

http://www.signonsandiego.com/news/business/20070913-9999-1b13housing.html

[Ex-SD]

Schizo lives in an imaginary world where facts mean nothing and his inane ramblings just keep tumbling out of his mouth like the prices that are falling all around him. I’ve been around the horn with him before and it’s just a big waste of time. I’m convinced that he’s just trolling in an attempt to irritate anyone who will take the bait. If enough people ignore him, maybe he will slink back into his hole.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

Actually schizo is correct that inventory has been flat for a couple of months. But in a vacuum, this means nothing. Sales have been declining as well, resulting in further downward pressure on prices. Salt in the obvious things already stated in this thread regarding mortgage shakedown and I think it’s obvious where we are headed.

These facts should provide the necessary medication to help schizo avoid another attack. But at some point the underlying disease will cause symptoms to re-emerge.

I think the following definition says it all.

Schizophrenia, from the Greek roots schizein (σχίζειν, “to split”) and phrēn, phren- (φρήν, φρεν-, “mind”), is a psychiatric diagnosis that describes a mental illness characterized by impairments in the perception or expression of reality , most commonly manifesting as auditory hallucinations, paranoid or bizarre delusions or disorganized speech and thinking in the context of significant social or occupational dysfunction .

[Duck]

Schizo was talking about inventory stabilizng and the article points out that inventory (despite all the REO’s on the market) is actually 2,000 units below last year’s level at this point. If you want to figure out what is happening you have to be objective.

I find it strange that the median price for resale homes was actually up YOY in August when it was widely assumed that Jumbo loans were becoming very hard to get. While median is not a great indicator, I would have thought a lot more lower priced homes would have sold in the face of poor liquidity for non-conforming loans.

If you look at the numbers from this article, the overall median (for all homes) was influenced mostly by the big drop in new home/condo sales prices. REO’s and new homes are “must sell”. As those inventories increase prices (overall) should continue to drift lower. It would be interesting to get an accurate reading on inventories of REO’s and new homes and be able to track that.

[LostCat]

Seem right. I keep hearing that sales are down to 2002 numbers. 2002 was a good year, just not compared to 2004.

[schizo2buyORnot]

Facts can be a troubling thing . . . especially when the facts are on the other side of your argument.

And I quote from Rich Toscano

“August resale inventory was actually down almost 4 percent from a year prior.”

Here’s the link to his article . . . .

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/09/13/toscano/880augsupply091207.txt

He is making exactly the only point I have made here. Inventories have stablized, or in Rich’s assessment declined 4% yoy. I have always granted its just one factor in a mix of factors which indicate more downside from here taken in total. However, leveling inventories bears watching nonetheless. Nothing “imaginary” or “inane” here just facts cited by the Toscano himself which mirror exactly what I have posited.

Props to FormerSanDiegan for getting my point . . . .

“Actually schizo is correct that inventory has been flat for a couple of months.”

I guess its just not in line with the whole “rah rah rah . . . housing is going to crash and we are going to buy at the bottom” mentality/group think crowd’s hopes and dreams. It is in line with those who take a dispassionate and objective analysis of what will be perhaps the most important financial decision we will ever make.

Still impatiently renting . . . .

In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[little lady]

“sales volume was down 20 percent from August 2006.”

There’s the reality………housing IS crashing.

http://www.voiceofsandiego.org/articles/2007/09/13/toscano/880augsupply0…

Haven’t you noticed abandonded houses in your area? I saw 2 this morning…..

Where are you? Hiding under a rock?

[Author]

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