Sandicor MLS Statics

[an]

dead cat bounce? :-D.

[zk]

Funny how year-over-year price is all that matters until the yoy is down 5.5% and the month to month is up. Then the headline (SDUT) is “County housing prices rise slightly.” Nowhere in that article was the 5.5% year-over-year price drop even mentioned. Yeah, they’re not biased.

[powayseller]

Median prices do NOT climb in a straight line.

these are median prices for San Diego detached homes for 2003, a hot year for real estate, beginining in January. Read across.
$410,250 $447,500 $449,000 $443,750 $474,750 $500,250 $466,000 $457,000 $460,000 $445,000 $440,000 $454,750

Notice the drop from June’s $500K to July’s $466K, and Aug 457K. Then back up to $460K in Oct, down to $445K in Nov.

If you want to be whiplashed, check out the prices of new home in the last year (read across). That median is all over the place.
$520,250 $527,750 $539,500 $435,000 $468,500 $475,000 $495,500 $424,000 $422,000 $425,000 $395,250 $413,500

We need to keep in mind that the median reflects the mix of homes sold, and not the value of any individual home. If last month, more buyers purchased bigger homes than smaller homes, then the median will be up, even though the value of each home sold is at 2004 or 2003 levels.

In my opinion, the best indicator is available on DEC 1, when OFHEO releases its Q3 2006 index. I am expecting a big decline. The OFHEO is the most accurate measure of home prices. Nothing else even comes close. The only limitation is that the OFHEO index is published quarterly and lags by 4 months, so today the latest number available is Q2 2006 median prices.

OFHEO’s index tracks the price of the SAME SFR, refinanced and purchased with a conventional loan, and it tracks the exotic loan financed homes amazingly well.

[santeeman]

"I have read enough to know that the amount of new listings decreasing in the fall/winter is less. But the amounts here look like they are MUCH less than they have been in the past(double), and started at a different time of the year."

OOPS! I was looking at the numbers again and I guess I goofed. They were down but, I think I transposed the amounts for total sales then listings.

 OFHEO on Dec 1st. I will be looking forward to that information.

[Anonymous]

SM, you can wait for quarterly OFHEO data (which tracks median price over repeat sales of existing homes), or you can use monthly median price for resale (not new) homes (not condos), which yields much the same answer:

[img_assist|nid=1685|title=
Median Price of Resale Home vs. OFHEO Index|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=466|height=311]

In either case, you should NOT use the headline all-in monthly median price, which combines new and resale homes and new and used condos. My recommendation: pick a category that’s important to you, and track it over time.

[santeeman]

Thanks jg, this is a real precarious situation I am in, and I need all the advice I can get.

[santeeman]

uh oh i did it again

[powayseller]

jg is right. The OFHEO index is more reliable, since it tracks sales and refis of the same SFR over time, and goes back to 1976. I have NAR data that far back, and SFR and OFHEO move together perfectly. I expect the 12/01/06 OFHEO release of Q3 06, to be down significantly. New home sales median jumps all over the place, and that is the reason the median jumps around so much. Dataquick calculates the median as the weighted median of new homes/condos, resale condo, resale SFR.

The median does not track the price change of each home, but shows the mix of homes sold that month. I would be shocked if the value of a particular home fluctuated over time. Home prices move steadily up, or down, but the median can be all over the map, depending on the types of homes sold that month.

So if the median is up 5%, that does not mean your home is worth 5% more that month. Each home is still falling in value, and it will continue to do so, as long as months supply is above 8.

[santeeman]

"So if the median is up 5%, that does not mean your home is worth 5% more that month. Each home is still falling in value, and it will continue to do so, as long as months supply is above 8."

I look at hometracker each week and this correlates with the info on there. It shows the median falling, ever so slowly, but falling. It shows a falling number of inventory too. Above 8 months, but falling. I am sure you have a better resource for that information, but I tend to hope that this information indicates it may not be too late to "cut and run", so they say.

[powayseller]

We’re still selling thousands of homes every month. If you get the price right, you will find a buyer. It’s all about having the right house at the right price. Buyers have so much choice, that they will pick the best home for their money.

A new problem for sellers is the new lending guidelines,which are going to squeeze out the first time buyer. Without the first time buyers, the SD housing market is history. I think only 5% of San diegans can afford the median house using traditional financing, and all those probably already own a house.

If I were a seller, I would be more worried about finding a buyer who can get a loan, than I would be about finding a buyer.

[Author]

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