San Marcos Price Reduction

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[patientlywaiting]

I like to simply point out that prices are now entering into the $400's in this neighborhood. Which is firmly in 2003 pricing. As for the folks that bought or are pending at prices "well over 500k," just more knife catchers IMHO.

Its seems to me that OC renter identified a trend.   Just like realtors who identified a trend on the way up, asked for the moon and got it.  It works the same on the way down. 

Thanks, ocrenter, for a  super informative, and fun blog.  You're make a great contribution to the real estate bloggosphere.  

 

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[sdrealtor]

OCR,
Whatever. You are cherry picking to prove your point. if you go back to the threads begining you see we were talking about the 2300+sq ft model. A few times we looked at the 2100 sq ft model. Now to prove your point that we might get into the low 400’s in 2007 you pulled out a much smaller model that was never part of the thread. If you look back to August 2006 posts you will see asking prices in the low 500’s for the larger models and your speculating they would dip below 500K. One year later we still see them closing above 500K.

SD R,
Jeezuz! if 30 to 60 day comps arent current enough what is? You also missed a pending on Camino Verde with an asking price of 575,000. probably didnt go that high but certainly not in the low 400’s.

A pending of the smaller 1900 sq ft model with an asking price of $490,000 is pretty strong IMO. BTW, this floorplan was selling in the high 300’s in late 2003. Throw in the fact that Twin Oaks Valley Road now goes through San Elijo Hills dramatically improving access to the coast and I’m still calling victory on this prediction.

Guys,
I dont deny the direction of where things are heading but OCR’s call was wrong given the timing of it. As for entering 2003 pricing, that is a pretty meaningless statement as we have been there for a year already in most areas. The question is not are we in 2003 pricing but are we in January 2003 pricing which is vastly different from November 2003 pricing as there was substantial appreciation throughout the year.

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

sdrealtor I did not miss the Camino Verde pending. As I wrote, the only comps I pulled up were for the Belleza subdivision. The Camino Verde comp that you pulled up did not list Belleza as the subdivision so that is why it did not come up in my search.

Again as I wrote in my post above I am not really saying anybody is right or wrong here. I would not agree that prices are at the 2003 level. As I posted, they are “heading” in that direction, I think they will get there but no they are not there yet. Your point rings true that in other areas of the county we are certainly at 2003 prices while indeed we have not reached them yet here. I do think ocr’s point was to say that hey here is one here and one there, yes cherry picking, yet that is how it starts right? However people on this board tend to get all worked up and yes, they sometimes do take a distressed listing and extrapolate it to a much broader extreme which is erroneous to do.

Finally my point about the two comps was not to point out they are stale by any means, it was more to point out that the volume is low. Admittedly I am not an expert at this particular subdivision so maybe that volume is good for the size of the subdivision. I would say that the trend will keep putting pricing pressure on this subdivision (and area as a whole) such that we will see 03 prices here…. not sure when though.

SD Realtor

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

[sdrealtor]

Huh? Didnt miss the Camino verde pending? Of course you did. You took a short cut and searched by subdivision rather than searching by zip and pulling out the applicable comps by street name which caused you to miss it.

As for not being at 2003 prices, my point is that there is no such thing. Prices changed so dramatically throughout 2003 that you need to refer to a specific month or at least season in 2003 when refering to pricing levels. Much of North County and I suspect the rest of the county is seeing sales at prices we last saw in late 2003. That of course is nowhere near early 2003 prices.

Finally, two comps in the last 60 days is hardly low volume. In fact with the pendings its pretty darn high volume.

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