San Diego YOY Inventory now nearly flat.

[nostradamus]

Whoa you really are schizo. So what are you getting at with the op? If you are in denial of a pending spike in inventory then you might want to check out the bubble primer

Read up on some of the blogs here, it might be educational. There’s this RE bubble we’ve experienced, it may help you to understand the pending spike in ways I’m too lazy to explain to someone who doesn’t want to know.

[Bugs]

S2Buy

You’re trying too hard here.

1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLS

We’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.

Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089

Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443

Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.

We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.

[Bugs]

S2Buy

You’re trying too hard here.

1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLS

We’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.

Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089

Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443

Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.

We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.

[Bugs]

S2Buy

You’re trying too hard here.

1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLS

We’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.

Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089

Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443

Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.

We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.

[Bugs]

S2Buy

You’re trying too hard here.

1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLS

We’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.

Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089

Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443

Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.

We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.

[Bugs]

S2Buy

You’re trying too hard here.

1st Qtr 2007 – 3,939 sales of SFRs through the MLS
1st Qtr 2008 – 2,880 sales of SFRs thruogh the MLS

We’re racking up less than 1,000 closed sales per month so far.

Current Number of Actives – 12,512
Current Number of Pendings – 3,577
Total number of both – 16,089

Total sales of SFRs through the MLS in 2007 – 15,443

Do the math – we now have more than 12 months of inventory on tap and we’re just a hair’s breadth away from having more REOs coming into the inventory than the total number of sales going out.

We’re so far from stabilizing that we can’t even see the tunnel yet, let along the light at the end of it.

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I know it is frustrating sitting on the fence as you are… (or were if you have already pulled the trigger)

Indeed I do hold inventory as one of the strongest indicators as to my gauge of the market. Yet you cannot gauge the health of the market on that standalone component. You have to also consider active/pending ratios, foreclosure rates, aggregated inventory compared to the sales rates etc…

There are plenty of explanations as to why the inventory is where it is at.. For one, many resellers have punted on the idea of selling. Those with equity and time are simply going to sit the market out. Those who were planning on relocating have replanned. Many have pulled homes off the market and are going to rent the home out. Not everyone has to sell. Many who attempted to sell in 07 with hopes of a turnaround in 08 are now facing reality and dealing with it.

Now yes it is somewhat amusing sometimes to read posters prognosticating 30k inventory levels and such. However we all need to get some amusement now and then. The more I think about it, the more I become concerned of a long drawn out cycle of downwardness so to speak. Without something more catastrophic like interest rate spikes or unemployment I think we will slowly toil our way down and stay flat.

Another wildcard are the ALT A and A paper resets in 2010 and beyond. That will become an interesting situation.

Anyways, your post is the reason I posted my first 20 days of April posting. Personally I think the posting about inflation as a risk factor is something that is important to think about. Not necessarly the inventory being flat or even negative on a yoy basis. In fact I do not believe 07 inventory reached 06 inventory for that matter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I know it is frustrating sitting on the fence as you are… (or were if you have already pulled the trigger)

Indeed I do hold inventory as one of the strongest indicators as to my gauge of the market. Yet you cannot gauge the health of the market on that standalone component. You have to also consider active/pending ratios, foreclosure rates, aggregated inventory compared to the sales rates etc…

There are plenty of explanations as to why the inventory is where it is at.. For one, many resellers have punted on the idea of selling. Those with equity and time are simply going to sit the market out. Those who were planning on relocating have replanned. Many have pulled homes off the market and are going to rent the home out. Not everyone has to sell. Many who attempted to sell in 07 with hopes of a turnaround in 08 are now facing reality and dealing with it.

Now yes it is somewhat amusing sometimes to read posters prognosticating 30k inventory levels and such. However we all need to get some amusement now and then. The more I think about it, the more I become concerned of a long drawn out cycle of downwardness so to speak. Without something more catastrophic like interest rate spikes or unemployment I think we will slowly toil our way down and stay flat.

Another wildcard are the ALT A and A paper resets in 2010 and beyond. That will become an interesting situation.

Anyways, your post is the reason I posted my first 20 days of April posting. Personally I think the posting about inflation as a risk factor is something that is important to think about. Not necessarly the inventory being flat or even negative on a yoy basis. In fact I do not believe 07 inventory reached 06 inventory for that matter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I know it is frustrating sitting on the fence as you are… (or were if you have already pulled the trigger)

Indeed I do hold inventory as one of the strongest indicators as to my gauge of the market. Yet you cannot gauge the health of the market on that standalone component. You have to also consider active/pending ratios, foreclosure rates, aggregated inventory compared to the sales rates etc…

There are plenty of explanations as to why the inventory is where it is at.. For one, many resellers have punted on the idea of selling. Those with equity and time are simply going to sit the market out. Those who were planning on relocating have replanned. Many have pulled homes off the market and are going to rent the home out. Not everyone has to sell. Many who attempted to sell in 07 with hopes of a turnaround in 08 are now facing reality and dealing with it.

Now yes it is somewhat amusing sometimes to read posters prognosticating 30k inventory levels and such. However we all need to get some amusement now and then. The more I think about it, the more I become concerned of a long drawn out cycle of downwardness so to speak. Without something more catastrophic like interest rate spikes or unemployment I think we will slowly toil our way down and stay flat.

Another wildcard are the ALT A and A paper resets in 2010 and beyond. That will become an interesting situation.

Anyways, your post is the reason I posted my first 20 days of April posting. Personally I think the posting about inflation as a risk factor is something that is important to think about. Not necessarly the inventory being flat or even negative on a yoy basis. In fact I do not believe 07 inventory reached 06 inventory for that matter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I know it is frustrating sitting on the fence as you are… (or were if you have already pulled the trigger)

Indeed I do hold inventory as one of the strongest indicators as to my gauge of the market. Yet you cannot gauge the health of the market on that standalone component. You have to also consider active/pending ratios, foreclosure rates, aggregated inventory compared to the sales rates etc…

There are plenty of explanations as to why the inventory is where it is at.. For one, many resellers have punted on the idea of selling. Those with equity and time are simply going to sit the market out. Those who were planning on relocating have replanned. Many have pulled homes off the market and are going to rent the home out. Not everyone has to sell. Many who attempted to sell in 07 with hopes of a turnaround in 08 are now facing reality and dealing with it.

Now yes it is somewhat amusing sometimes to read posters prognosticating 30k inventory levels and such. However we all need to get some amusement now and then. The more I think about it, the more I become concerned of a long drawn out cycle of downwardness so to speak. Without something more catastrophic like interest rate spikes or unemployment I think we will slowly toil our way down and stay flat.

Another wildcard are the ALT A and A paper resets in 2010 and beyond. That will become an interesting situation.

Anyways, your post is the reason I posted my first 20 days of April posting. Personally I think the posting about inflation as a risk factor is something that is important to think about. Not necessarly the inventory being flat or even negative on a yoy basis. In fact I do not believe 07 inventory reached 06 inventory for that matter.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Schizo I know it is frustrating sitting on the fence as you are… (or were if you have already pulled the trigger)

Indeed I do hold inventory as one of the strongest indicators as to my gauge of the market. Yet you cannot gauge the health of the market on that standalone component. You have to also consider active/pending ratios, foreclosure rates, aggregated inventory compared to the sales rates etc…

There are plenty of explanations as to why the inventory is where it is at.. For one, many resellers have punted on the idea of selling. Those with equity and time are simply going to sit the market out. Those who were planning on relocating have replanned. Many have pulled homes off the market and are going to rent the home out. Not everyone has to sell. Many who attempted to sell in 07 with hopes of a turnaround in 08 are now facing reality and dealing with it.

Now yes it is somewhat amusing sometimes to read posters prognosticating 30k inventory levels and such. However we all need to get some amusement now and then. The more I think about it, the more I become concerned of a long drawn out cycle of downwardness so to speak. Without something more catastrophic like interest rate spikes or unemployment I think we will slowly toil our way down and stay flat.

Another wildcard are the ALT A and A paper resets in 2010 and beyond. That will become an interesting situation.

Anyways, your post is the reason I posted my first 20 days of April posting. Personally I think the posting about inflation as a risk factor is something that is important to think about. Not necessarly the inventory being flat or even negative on a yoy basis. In fact I do not believe 07 inventory reached 06 inventory for that matter.

SD Realtor

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R . . . Amen to all you have said.

I was simply making the observation that inventory which is one factor of many dictating the direction of the market is beginning to flatten. If you read my original post I went to the pains of noting that this does not portend a bottom but simply bears noting and is a shift from where it has been over the last 24+ months. Pending/actives, interest rates, jobs, foreclosures in pipeline, etc. are all equally important factors. I was just noting a direction change in one important factor . . . inventory. Its just amusing to see everyone here jump all over you if you note ANYTHING other than imminent doom, gloom, and market catastrophe on all fronts . . . including inventory. No I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. I pulled on a foreclosure but the gun didn’t fire (low ball offer not accepted sold at higher amount) so I am back to square one.

Again . . . simply bringing to Pigs attention (with link provided) an important piece of information which is beginning to shift direction.

I agree on inflation. On a closely related note the tanking dollar at some point will also have to be factored in. I don’t buy the notion that rich Asians/Indians from overseas will sustain the SD RE market but I have to believe that they will have at least a growing influence if the US dollar continues to tank. Having lost 15% of its value already this year, SD RE is all the more cheaper to someone whose cash is in Euros, Yen, or Pounds. Again a factor which by itself is not market shifting but has an influence. This and all the other factors is what makes predicting the direction of Adam Smith’s proverbial “invisible hand” so hard to predict. Thus the need to continue . . . . In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R . . . Amen to all you have said.

I was simply making the observation that inventory which is one factor of many dictating the direction of the market is beginning to flatten. If you read my original post I went to the pains of noting that this does not portend a bottom but simply bears noting and is a shift from where it has been over the last 24+ months. Pending/actives, interest rates, jobs, foreclosures in pipeline, etc. are all equally important factors. I was just noting a direction change in one important factor . . . inventory. Its just amusing to see everyone here jump all over you if you note ANYTHING other than imminent doom, gloom, and market catastrophe on all fronts . . . including inventory. No I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. I pulled on a foreclosure but the gun didn’t fire (low ball offer not accepted sold at higher amount) so I am back to square one.

Again . . . simply bringing to Pigs attention (with link provided) an important piece of information which is beginning to shift direction.

I agree on inflation. On a closely related note the tanking dollar at some point will also have to be factored in. I don’t buy the notion that rich Asians/Indians from overseas will sustain the SD RE market but I have to believe that they will have at least a growing influence if the US dollar continues to tank. Having lost 15% of its value already this year, SD RE is all the more cheaper to someone whose cash is in Euros, Yen, or Pounds. Again a factor which by itself is not market shifting but has an influence. This and all the other factors is what makes predicting the direction of Adam Smith’s proverbial “invisible hand” so hard to predict. Thus the need to continue . . . . In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R . . . Amen to all you have said.

I was simply making the observation that inventory which is one factor of many dictating the direction of the market is beginning to flatten. If you read my original post I went to the pains of noting that this does not portend a bottom but simply bears noting and is a shift from where it has been over the last 24+ months. Pending/actives, interest rates, jobs, foreclosures in pipeline, etc. are all equally important factors. I was just noting a direction change in one important factor . . . inventory. Its just amusing to see everyone here jump all over you if you note ANYTHING other than imminent doom, gloom, and market catastrophe on all fronts . . . including inventory. No I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. I pulled on a foreclosure but the gun didn’t fire (low ball offer not accepted sold at higher amount) so I am back to square one.

Again . . . simply bringing to Pigs attention (with link provided) an important piece of information which is beginning to shift direction.

I agree on inflation. On a closely related note the tanking dollar at some point will also have to be factored in. I don’t buy the notion that rich Asians/Indians from overseas will sustain the SD RE market but I have to believe that they will have at least a growing influence if the US dollar continues to tank. Having lost 15% of its value already this year, SD RE is all the more cheaper to someone whose cash is in Euros, Yen, or Pounds. Again a factor which by itself is not market shifting but has an influence. This and all the other factors is what makes predicting the direction of Adam Smith’s proverbial “invisible hand” so hard to predict. Thus the need to continue . . . . In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[schizo2buyORnot]

SD R . . . Amen to all you have said.

I was simply making the observation that inventory which is one factor of many dictating the direction of the market is beginning to flatten. If you read my original post I went to the pains of noting that this does not portend a bottom but simply bears noting and is a shift from where it has been over the last 24+ months. Pending/actives, interest rates, jobs, foreclosures in pipeline, etc. are all equally important factors. I was just noting a direction change in one important factor . . . inventory. Its just amusing to see everyone here jump all over you if you note ANYTHING other than imminent doom, gloom, and market catastrophe on all fronts . . . including inventory. No I haven’t pulled the trigger yet. I pulled on a foreclosure but the gun didn’t fire (low ball offer not accepted sold at higher amount) so I am back to square one.

Again . . . simply bringing to Pigs attention (with link provided) an important piece of information which is beginning to shift direction.

I agree on inflation. On a closely related note the tanking dollar at some point will also have to be factored in. I don’t buy the notion that rich Asians/Indians from overseas will sustain the SD RE market but I have to believe that they will have at least a growing influence if the US dollar continues to tank. Having lost 15% of its value already this year, SD RE is all the more cheaper to someone whose cash is in Euros, Yen, or Pounds. Again a factor which by itself is not market shifting but has an influence. This and all the other factors is what makes predicting the direction of Adam Smith’s proverbial “invisible hand” so hard to predict. Thus the need to continue . . . . In search of a crystal ball . . . .

[Author]

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