San Diego Home Price Index Blog

[temeculaguy]

I like the site, thanks for the link. If it is esmith, nice work, again. In his writings he links ocrenter on BMIT, another nice piece of work, I need to get out more and see what others are doing. Both have more credibility every time I look at their work. When this housing bubble is all over with there will be a serious waste of writing talent, these guys make newspaper reporters look like third graders with crayons.

So if I read the analysis correctly, the last bastions of high pricing are set up for a fall and my beloved outskirts doesn’t have many exciting things in store for me, oh well. It’s not like things will be turning around anytime soon, especially if CV and the coast goes into the tank and gas breaks $5, I’ll be O.K. and you 52 corridor folks will have a nice year watching it fall.

[Eugene]

It is indeed my blog. I agree, the biggest point of contention is whether houses were fairly priced in 2002. Almost all appreciation between 2000-2002 (especially in the top tier) can be explained by falling interest rates. Before that real estate was probably still recovering from the 1990 bust.

You could also say that houses weren’t fairly priced because interest rates were abnormally low, and that they are still abnormally low. Who knows, maybe they will shoot back up to 8%.

Finally, interest rates are only one part of the story. The other important factor is availability of down payments. A good chunk of buyers does not have cash for a 20% down payment. In 2002 you could get a second loan for 20%, but today your only option is a FHA loan that’s hard to get and you’re penalized by paying a slightly higher rate. OTOH, in 2002 lending standards weren’t as lax as they were at the peak.

This reasoning is very general and very approximate, it’s best to watch prices and see where they are going.

[Eugene]

It is indeed my blog. I agree, the biggest point of contention is whether houses were fairly priced in 2002. Almost all appreciation between 2000-2002 (especially in the top tier) can be explained by falling interest rates. Before that real estate was probably still recovering from the 1990 bust.

You could also say that houses weren’t fairly priced because interest rates were abnormally low, and that they are still abnormally low. Who knows, maybe they will shoot back up to 8%.

Finally, interest rates are only one part of the story. The other important factor is availability of down payments. A good chunk of buyers does not have cash for a 20% down payment. In 2002 you could get a second loan for 20%, but today your only option is a FHA loan that’s hard to get and you’re penalized by paying a slightly higher rate. OTOH, in 2002 lending standards weren’t as lax as they were at the peak.

This reasoning is very general and very approximate, it’s best to watch prices and see where they are going.

[Eugene]

It is indeed my blog. I agree, the biggest point of contention is whether houses were fairly priced in 2002. Almost all appreciation between 2000-2002 (especially in the top tier) can be explained by falling interest rates. Before that real estate was probably still recovering from the 1990 bust.

You could also say that houses weren’t fairly priced because interest rates were abnormally low, and that they are still abnormally low. Who knows, maybe they will shoot back up to 8%.

Finally, interest rates are only one part of the story. The other important factor is availability of down payments. A good chunk of buyers does not have cash for a 20% down payment. In 2002 you could get a second loan for 20%, but today your only option is a FHA loan that’s hard to get and you’re penalized by paying a slightly higher rate. OTOH, in 2002 lending standards weren’t as lax as they were at the peak.

This reasoning is very general and very approximate, it’s best to watch prices and see where they are going.

[Eugene]

It is indeed my blog. I agree, the biggest point of contention is whether houses were fairly priced in 2002. Almost all appreciation between 2000-2002 (especially in the top tier) can be explained by falling interest rates. Before that real estate was probably still recovering from the 1990 bust.

You could also say that houses weren’t fairly priced because interest rates were abnormally low, and that they are still abnormally low. Who knows, maybe they will shoot back up to 8%.

Finally, interest rates are only one part of the story. The other important factor is availability of down payments. A good chunk of buyers does not have cash for a 20% down payment. In 2002 you could get a second loan for 20%, but today your only option is a FHA loan that’s hard to get and you’re penalized by paying a slightly higher rate. OTOH, in 2002 lending standards weren’t as lax as they were at the peak.

This reasoning is very general and very approximate, it’s best to watch prices and see where they are going.

[Eugene]

It is indeed my blog. I agree, the biggest point of contention is whether houses were fairly priced in 2002. Almost all appreciation between 2000-2002 (especially in the top tier) can be explained by falling interest rates. Before that real estate was probably still recovering from the 1990 bust.

You could also say that houses weren’t fairly priced because interest rates were abnormally low, and that they are still abnormally low. Who knows, maybe they will shoot back up to 8%.

Finally, interest rates are only one part of the story. The other important factor is availability of down payments. A good chunk of buyers does not have cash for a 20% down payment. In 2002 you could get a second loan for 20%, but today your only option is a FHA loan that’s hard to get and you’re penalized by paying a slightly higher rate. OTOH, in 2002 lending standards weren’t as lax as they were at the peak.

This reasoning is very general and very approximate, it’s best to watch prices and see where they are going.

[feraina]

esmith, very interesting & informative blog!

Do you have graphical data for the false bottoms of 93, 94, and 95? From the first and second figures, it really looks like many neighborhoods have leveled off, and some have even begun an uptick. I’m curious what those earlier false bottoms looked like at this timescale.

Thanks for the blog & analysis!

[feraina]

esmith, very interesting & informative blog!

Do you have graphical data for the false bottoms of 93, 94, and 95? From the first and second figures, it really looks like many neighborhoods have leveled off, and some have even begun an uptick. I’m curious what those earlier false bottoms looked like at this timescale.

Thanks for the blog & analysis!

[feraina]

esmith, very interesting & informative blog!

Do you have graphical data for the false bottoms of 93, 94, and 95? From the first and second figures, it really looks like many neighborhoods have leveled off, and some have even begun an uptick. I’m curious what those earlier false bottoms looked like at this timescale.

Thanks for the blog & analysis!

[feraina]

esmith, very interesting & informative blog!

Do you have graphical data for the false bottoms of 93, 94, and 95? From the first and second figures, it really looks like many neighborhoods have leveled off, and some have even begun an uptick. I’m curious what those earlier false bottoms looked like at this timescale.

Thanks for the blog & analysis!

[feraina]

esmith, very interesting & informative blog!

Do you have graphical data for the false bottoms of 93, 94, and 95? From the first and second figures, it really looks like many neighborhoods have leveled off, and some have even begun an uptick. I’m curious what those earlier false bottoms looked like at this timescale.

Thanks for the blog & analysis!

[sdrealtor]

Great Work esmith.

Isnt it nice that we are talking about Real Estate again? I’m gonna go back and look at 2002 pricing of individual home sales for areas I know well. It will be anecdotal but I’ll try to comment on the pricing levels relative to typical incomes for those areas. It may take a couple days though as I have a ton of work to catch up on.

Anyone else with something to pitch in here would be appreciated.

Cant we all just git along?
RK

[sdrealtor]

Great Work esmith.

Isnt it nice that we are talking about Real Estate again? I’m gonna go back and look at 2002 pricing of individual home sales for areas I know well. It will be anecdotal but I’ll try to comment on the pricing levels relative to typical incomes for those areas. It may take a couple days though as I have a ton of work to catch up on.

Anyone else with something to pitch in here would be appreciated.

Cant we all just git along?
RK

[sdrealtor]

Great Work esmith.

Isnt it nice that we are talking about Real Estate again? I’m gonna go back and look at 2002 pricing of individual home sales for areas I know well. It will be anecdotal but I’ll try to comment on the pricing levels relative to typical incomes for those areas. It may take a couple days though as I have a ton of work to catch up on.

Anyone else with something to pitch in here would be appreciated.

Cant we all just git along?
RK

[sdrealtor]

Great Work esmith.

Isnt it nice that we are talking about Real Estate again? I’m gonna go back and look at 2002 pricing of individual home sales for areas I know well. It will be anecdotal but I’ll try to comment on the pricing levels relative to typical incomes for those areas. It may take a couple days though as I have a ton of work to catch up on.

Anyone else with something to pitch in here would be appreciated.

Cant we all just git along?
RK

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