San Diego County Population Now 3.3 Million—Second in State

[Escoguy]

San Diego’s population as of July 1 was estimated to be 3.301 million, an addition of about 26,000 from the same day last year. The total is the second-largest in the state, behind Los Angeles County’s 10.2 million.

San Diego County Population Now 3.3 Million—Second in State

Total of 16K new jobs:
http://sandiego.urbdezine.com/2016/12/24/obstacles-san-diego-housing-crunch/

Population growth continues to track steadily upwards. With 2.86 persons per household, effectively 9,090 households were added in the period from July 2015 to July 2016.

According to the US census, there were 1,194K housing units in San Diego county as of July 2015.
http://www.census.gov/quickfacts/table/PST045215/06073

“Of the 10,000 that were produced last year, you had only 229 single-family homes that could be sold at $500,000 or less,” Adams said. “And then you had only 471 multi-family homes produced that could be sold for $500,000 or less. The market that is not being met is the market of working middle-class families.”

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/sd-fi-apartment-construction-20161206-story.html

About 3,000 new apartment units are expected to open in San Diego County in 2017, a roughly 55 percent increase from 2016.

The growth in new apartments is fueled by big rent gains for landlords and investors, high demand by San Diegans looking for somewhere to live and lots of construction approved downtown. Less than 1,400 apartments came out this year, said data from MarketPointe Realty Advisors.

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The majority of new units, more than 2,000, will be downtown. The biggest project is The Rey on B Street that will have 475 apartments. Rent starts at $1,765 for studios, $2,050 for a one-bedroom and $2,810 for a two-bedroom.

Needless to say, no reason from this data to expect a downtrend in prices or rents or demand at least not in the near term. It looks like the market will continue to be tight on all fronts.

[spdrun]

Rents depend on what happens with…
(a) the economy. We’re coming due for a recession, 7.5 years since the last one ended
(b) immigration. A significant percentage of San Diego’s population (5-7%) is in the US illegally. Will the Orange Haired Clown make life difficult for undocumented workers? To what extent?

Under 3 people per household isn’t particularly dense, and during a slowdown, people tend to double up and share housing.

Also, rents are outpacing incomes. If borrowing rates go up for other things like car loans, credit cards, etc, where’s the money going to come from?
http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/real-estate/sd-fi-cost-burden-20161216-story.html

It’s always different, until it isn’t.

[gzz]

I am always surprised at the asking rents on these new complexes. $1765 for a studio?

On the other hand, the “big” growth in apartments projected for 2017 is equal to 0.3% of the housing stock.

I bet the number of new AirBNB units removed from the long term rental supply will actually exceed 3,000.

[gzz]

Spd, income growth rate is meaningless given that it excludes growth in wealth as well as wealth transferred from other parts of the world.

Health care and college tuition prices have gone up faster than income growth for about 40 years straight.

Like college, housing is in part a positional good and an investment. San Diego is in the Ivy League of desirable places to live, one of the lowest crime, lowest property tax, best weather and lowest pollution major cities.

The global rich, especially from Asia, will continue to want to either live here or, like Bill Gates, Mitt Romney, and John McCain, at least have a vacation home or three here.

We have underperformed the other major west coast markets and are an increasingly good value. We also have a good critical mass of Asian-Americans, long term immigrants, and cosmopolitan culture that will make additional Asian investors feel welcome.

[gzz]

The price of TV sets, clothing, a basic car, kitchen appliances, phone service, home computers, entertainment media, and many other things keep falling.

Some of that extra income will be sopped up by medical and college tuition. But for the most part, housing is the big category that will benefit from deflation in manufacturered and digital goods.

[spdrun]

Get into a trade war with China, and we’ll likely be seeing inflation in imported goods like appliances and clothing 🙂 Personally, much as I dislike Trump, I actually LOVE the idea of him shooting his fat yappah off and provoking a tariff war with China.

From an environmental/e-waste standpoint, it would be nice to see people not buy unnecessary electronics and throw easily fixed items away. Also, it would be an incentive to design for durability and repairability vs planned obsolescence.

Same goes for clothing — people buy stuff, keep it for a month, the toss it or throw it in the back of their closet. It’s not even recyclable — best use for it is to shred it and covert it into insulation or make it into shop rags.

If a trade war provokes an economic crisis that temporarily knocks down housing, so much the more entertaining. Yes, housing will increase in the long run, but a few bumps in the road would be good entertainment.

Good article about fast fashion and “cheap” clothing…
http://www.newsweek.com/2016/09/09/old-clothes-fashion-waste-crisis-494824.html

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