Sabre Springs vs Scripps Ranch schools

[permabear]

Pretty much every well-to-do zipcode has this demographic problem. It’s not isolated to Scripps Ranch. For example, 92127 – home of 4S Ranch, Del Sur, and Santaluz – has a very similar shift despite all the new homes:

http://profilewarehouse.sandag.org/profiles/est/zip92127est.pdf

So it’s not sound analysis on the part of ocrenter to say that there will be a sudden massive influx of bussed kids to Scripps Ranch High but not other places. All these neighborhoods have a demographic dip for people in their 30’s.

In fact, the real reasons are twofold. First, there was a massive dip in births in the 70’s due to the economic recession. This is very well-documented, and is commonly referred to as the “baby bust”:

http://pewsocialtrends.org/pubs/753/american-birth-rate-decline-linked-to-recession

Second, the point about housing still being unaffordable is still true. I make over 200k a year, but according to traditional calculators I can only afford a home up to 1M (and that’s with 200k cash down). Any place for us to move up would be a stretch. Which means many people are still stretching.

There’s still a lot of air to be let out of this balloon.

[ocrenter]

Scripps is part of SDUSD, there are a whole lot of places that SDUSD can bus kids to SRHS to help alleviate overcrowding at other campuses.

I do not know of any plans for PUSD to start busing kids from overcrowded Poway to 4S or Del Sur.

[ocrenter]

Scripps is part of SDUSD, there are a whole lot of places that SDUSD can bus kids to SRHS to help alleviate overcrowding at other campuses.

I do not know of any plans for PUSD to start busing kids from overcrowded Poway to 4S or Del Sur.

[ocrenter]

Scripps is part of SDUSD, there are a whole lot of places that SDUSD can bus kids to SRHS to help alleviate overcrowding at other campuses.

I do not know of any plans for PUSD to start busing kids from overcrowded Poway to 4S or Del Sur.

[ocrenter]

Scripps is part of SDUSD, there are a whole lot of places that SDUSD can bus kids to SRHS to help alleviate overcrowding at other campuses.

I do not know of any plans for PUSD to start busing kids from overcrowded Poway to 4S or Del Sur.

[ocrenter]

Scripps is part of SDUSD, there are a whole lot of places that SDUSD can bus kids to SRHS to help alleviate overcrowding at other campuses.

I do not know of any plans for PUSD to start busing kids from overcrowded Poway to 4S or Del Sur.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]the data is interesting . . .
so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.[/quote]

Absolutely right, ocrenter. This has already happened in SDUSD with all the SD local beach-area schools and the feeder neighborhoods of the following schools:

Patrick Henry High, San Diego High and (newly constructed) Lincoln Prep.

And if it weren’t for vast tracts of Navy housing, Coronado High and Serra High would have to either close down and bus its few current local students or accept at least 50% zone/interdistrict transfers.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]the data is interesting . . .
so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.[/quote]

Absolutely right, ocrenter. This has already happened in SDUSD with all the SD local beach-area schools and the feeder neighborhoods of the following schools:

Patrick Henry High, San Diego High and (newly constructed) Lincoln Prep.

And if it weren’t for vast tracts of Navy housing, Coronado High and Serra High would have to either close down and bus its few current local students or accept at least 50% zone/interdistrict transfers.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]the data is interesting . . .
so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.[/quote]

Absolutely right, ocrenter. This has already happened in SDUSD with all the SD local beach-area schools and the feeder neighborhoods of the following schools:

Patrick Henry High, San Diego High and (newly constructed) Lincoln Prep.

And if it weren’t for vast tracts of Navy housing, Coronado High and Serra High would have to either close down and bus its few current local students or accept at least 50% zone/interdistrict transfers.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]the data is interesting . . .
so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.[/quote]

Absolutely right, ocrenter. This has already happened in SDUSD with all the SD local beach-area schools and the feeder neighborhoods of the following schools:

Patrick Henry High, San Diego High and (newly constructed) Lincoln Prep.

And if it weren’t for vast tracts of Navy housing, Coronado High and Serra High would have to either close down and bus its few current local students or accept at least 50% zone/interdistrict transfers.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]the data is interesting . . .
so if Scripps Ranch as a community is not replenishing its reproductive population, then the future is a school filled with 50% bused student base.

give it 10-15 years and pull this post up, you’ll see.[/quote]

Absolutely right, ocrenter. This has already happened in SDUSD with all the SD local beach-area schools and the feeder neighborhoods of the following schools:

Patrick Henry High, San Diego High and (newly constructed) Lincoln Prep.

And if it weren’t for vast tracts of Navy housing, Coronado High and Serra High would have to either close down and bus its few current local students or accept at least 50% zone/interdistrict transfers.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.[/quote](emphasis added)

ocrenter, I knew of two younger (former) coworkers who bought cosmetic fixers on large lots in the area of SR affected by the 2003 wildfires in about ’97 and ’99 respectively. If I can remember correctly, they paid about $240K and $275K.

[quote=ocrenter]. . . the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.[/quote]

I agree with this as they had an opening to pay off their existing mortgage and sell their lot and move when their ins. cos paid out (in whole or part) their policies in 2003 and instead each elected to repair/rebuild and stay. It took several years of pain after that to have their streets “back to normal” again with most of the burned properties rebuilt. These SR owners would be about 44-48 years old today.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.[/quote](emphasis added)

ocrenter, I knew of two younger (former) coworkers who bought cosmetic fixers on large lots in the area of SR affected by the 2003 wildfires in about ’97 and ’99 respectively. If I can remember correctly, they paid about $240K and $275K.

[quote=ocrenter]. . . the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.[/quote]

I agree with this as they had an opening to pay off their existing mortgage and sell their lot and move when their ins. cos paid out (in whole or part) their policies in 2003 and instead each elected to repair/rebuild and stay. It took several years of pain after that to have their streets “back to normal” again with most of the burned properties rebuilt. These SR owners would be about 44-48 years old today.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.[/quote](emphasis added)

ocrenter, I knew of two younger (former) coworkers who bought cosmetic fixers on large lots in the area of SR affected by the 2003 wildfires in about ’97 and ’99 respectively. If I can remember correctly, they paid about $240K and $275K.

[quote=ocrenter]. . . the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.[/quote]

I agree with this as they had an opening to pay off their existing mortgage and sell their lot and move when their ins. cos paid out (in whole or part) their policies in 2003 and instead each elected to repair/rebuild and stay. It took several years of pain after that to have their streets “back to normal” again with most of the burned properties rebuilt. These SR owners would be about 44-48 years old today.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=ocrenter]right, 30-somethings can’t afford scripps now. but they were able to before the bubble.[/quote](emphasis added)

ocrenter, I knew of two younger (former) coworkers who bought cosmetic fixers on large lots in the area of SR affected by the 2003 wildfires in about ’97 and ’99 respectively. If I can remember correctly, they paid about $240K and $275K.

[quote=ocrenter]. . . the question is where is this 40-59 bracket going? majority of them have the equity and would not need to sell. some of them would consider downgrading if the price is right, but I don’t believe we will see enough 30-somethings (even when they become 40-somethings) have enough earning power or down payment to satisfy this current 40-59 bracket’s asking price. the end result is these 40-59 group will just stay put and not move.[/quote]

I agree with this as they had an opening to pay off their existing mortgage and sell their lot and move when their ins. cos paid out (in whole or part) their policies in 2003 and instead each elected to repair/rebuild and stay. It took several years of pain after that to have their streets “back to normal” again with most of the burned properties rebuilt. These SR owners would be about 44-48 years old today.

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