S&P 500 Presidential Year Cycle for June-Oct

[equalizer]

I heard that in last 50+ years during June-Oct of Presidential election year, only in 1 year did the SP500 go down and average return was 3.6%. So the odds dont favor a big correction.

IT, healthcare, consumer durables are strong in recessionary period. Gamble is on consumer discretionary stocks that may jump. Someone have time to dig up tables to back up this claim?

[LA_Renter]

Did any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??

[LA_Renter]

Did any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??

[LA_Renter]

Did any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??

[LA_Renter]

Did any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??

[LA_Renter]

Did any of those elections occur in the throws of the worst housing bust in this country’s history resulting in a debilitating credit crunch and just for good measure $130 oil??

[j]

And home prices never go down.

There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.

[j]

And home prices never go down.

There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.

[j]

And home prices never go down.

There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.

[j]

And home prices never go down.

There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.

[j]

And home prices never go down.

There is no major correlation between a Presidential election year and SP500 average. The SP500 goes up most of the time, or I would not invest in it. That being said in 50 years there are only 12 Presidential elections, so it’s not like saying the hottest in 50 years. It’s more like saying the largest egg in a dozen.

[equalizer]

“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”

https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/targetedCopy/InvestorPages/EOM/equityCommentary_ViewPoint.jhtml;sessionid=ZIUU2DRXVV1MNLARENV4GJQ?intcmp=investor_homepage_expert_commentary

The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.

Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/

[equalizer]

“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”

https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/targetedCopy/InvestorPages/EOM/equityCommentary_ViewPoint.jhtml;sessionid=ZIUU2DRXVV1MNLARENV4GJQ?intcmp=investor_homepage_expert_commentary

The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.

Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/

[equalizer]

“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”

https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/targetedCopy/InvestorPages/EOM/equityCommentary_ViewPoint.jhtml;sessionid=ZIUU2DRXVV1MNLARENV4GJQ?intcmp=investor_homepage_expert_commentary

The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.

Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/

[equalizer]

“The theory has been described in interesting terms like “statistical fluke,” and “an accident of history.” Unfortunately, there are insufficient observations, given only 43 presidents in our country’s history, to scientifically validate the thesis and satisfy naysayers. Nonetheless, the theory has often been surprisingly accurate, although less so in more recent years.”

https://www.oppenheimerfunds.com/targetedCopy/InvestorPages/EOM/equityCommentary_ViewPoint.jhtml;sessionid=ZIUU2DRXVV1MNLARENV4GJQ?intcmp=investor_homepage_expert_commentary

The trend I posted is just one factor to analyze along with interest rates, P/E ratios, technical indicators including Dow Theory, etc. Richard Russell the permabear is bullish right now. Bob Brinker, whose newsletter is highly rated over 15 years by Hulbert Financial Digest is neutral to bullish now. P/E ratios are moderate. Overall sentiment is negative. The trend is also positive until Oct. The trend may be a fluke, but I wouldn’t go 100% neg now. My point is that it is not time to panic sell. Be defensive, but not all short.

Here’s article that discusses June to Oct. trends.
http://www.thestockadvisors.com/content/view/2123/9/

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