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February 4, 2012 at 12:59 AM #737359February 4, 2012 at 7:46 AM #737362EconProfParticipant
Teaboy, looks like you (and others) have made good money by refinancing and “capturing” the gain resulting from the falling interest rate environment.
If I understand correctly what you have done, (and I am only relying in this thread as I have not read any other analyses of this strategy), you are resetting your long-term contract to repay a loan with each drop in prevailing interest rates.
A loan is a promise to pay a flow of funds for a certain period of time, at a fixed (in this case) interest rate. Once the loan has closed, at the then-prevailing market rate, the lender and borrower are both committed. What if, one month later, prevailing interest rates jump? You are locked in at a comparably good interest rate so you are indifferent. But the lender will kick himself because he could have waited a month and gotten much higher monthly payments for as long as 29 years, 11 months. The borrower will contratulate himself for his foresight and accumen.
Of course, if rates drop, the feelings are reversed.
If they drop enough, however, the borrower can refi at a lower rate and pay off the previous lender. That lender will not get to keep the nice premium (over new prevailing rates) that he had hoped to keep. The borrower can capture the gain via “negative points”, which the new lender will pay to get the loan done. My guess is you could forego the negative points and instead get an even lower rate. The transaction costs for all sides are apparently exceeded by the gain from the lower rate for 30 more years. So a new loan is worthwhile for both the borrower and the new lender. The previous lender kind of gets shafted, but that’s the result of not correctly predicting future interest rates.
None of this would be possible in a stable or increasing interest rate environment, which I have been predicting, wrongly so far, for a long time.This looks to be an interesting strategy, and I’m surprised we haven’t seen much about it in the national media.
February 4, 2012 at 8:55 AM #737363bearishgurlParticipant[quote=EconProf]…This looks to be an interesting strategy, and I’m surprised we haven’t seen much about it in the national media.[/quote]
EconProf, I think the reason these techniques are not highly publicized is that they are rare. How many property owners right now CAN be “serial refinancers.” First, their CREDIT has to be good enough to do so, they can’t have too much open consumer debt or student loans and they need an appropriate steady flowing income (W-2 preferred). Secondly, their mortgages cannot have prepayment penalties or other provisions to keep them in it for a period of time (6th mos?).
I just don’t see a current tsunami of “mainstream owners” being able to do this every few months, even if they wanted to.
February 6, 2012 at 10:44 AM #737410teaboyParticipant[quote=arv]My latest is around 6800 cash back on the closing which happened today.
[/quote]Arv,
6800 “cash back” sounds high. Is this net of all lender fees (“origination” fees, etc), and other fixed closing costs (appraisal, title, other fees, etc)? If so, how did you achieve this?
My understanding is you cannot receive actual cash back from the closing (as that would make it a “cash out” refinance), so the net credit you receive has to be less than the other items the borrower must fund at closing (i.e. the initial deposit for you escrow account, and the daily interest charge for the period between closing date and the first month’s new mortgage payment)
As such, it’s my understanding that, for me, the greatest net credit I can get from each refinance is ~$4k.[quote=EconProf]Teaboy, looks like you (and others) have made good money by refinancing and “capturing” the gain resulting from the falling interest rate environment.[/quote]
EconProf,
In a falling interest rate environment, as in my previous 3 refinances, I have received both a net credit plus a lower interest rate. This is a win-win.
In a rising interest rate environment, one would receive a net credit plus a higher interest rate. This is a win-lose.
However, what I am proposing is that even in a (not too steep) rising interest rate environment, the former “win” (net credit) would outweigh the latter “lose” (higher interest rate).
No-one can predict rates. From a practical point of view, also, I realize that it is most likely that I will not remain in my current house for 15-years, and so cannot reasonably expect to be able to take full advantage of a 15 or 30-year mortgage.No-one can predict rates, but if we assume that they follow a sine wave over time, assume inflation at ~3%, etc, would be the equation to model the expected profit/loss from my hypothesis?
Is there a math wiz in the house?tb
February 6, 2012 at 9:12 PM #737466arvParticipantteaboy,
property taxes + hazard insurance renewal + impound account helped to consume the rebate. So it all depends time of refinancing and loan amount and property taxes.February 6, 2012 at 9:18 PM #737467moneymakerParticipantYour MIP could be changing from a 5 year to a life of the loan. I think serial refi’ing is probably about as profitable as serial gambling, the house will always win, unless you walk away. Is that you’re strategy?
February 7, 2012 at 10:15 AM #737479teaboyParticipant[quote=moneymaker]Your MIP could be changing from a 5 year to a life of the loan.[/quote]
Regarding MIP, my mortgage is <80% LTV, so this is not relevant.[quote=moneymaker]I think serial refi'ing is probably about as profitable as serial gambling, the house will always win, unless you walk away. Is that you're strategy?[/quote]
Yes, of course I can walk away. I would continue refinancing and pulling out ~$16k/year while it made sense, then if/when rates are high enough to justify it, I'd use the saved cash to pay down or pay off the mortgage.Again, it is most likely that I will not remain in my current house for 15+ years, and so cannot reasonably expect to be able to take full advantage of a 15 or 30-year mortgage.
April 18, 2012 at 6:44 AM #741840Former SD residentParticipantCan anyone recommend their broker? I’m in North Carolina so I can’t use HLS.
April 18, 2012 at 9:33 AM #741847ljinvestorParticipantFormer SD- Why not use PenFed.org They have a 5/5 ARM at 3% and will cover your closing costs up to $10k. The rate can only increase by a max of 2% every 5yrs with lifetime max adjustment of 5%. So worst case scenario your rate would be 5% yrs 6-10 and hopefully you will be back in SD way before 10yrs.
I have used Penfed a couple of times and pretty easy to deal with. Guessing with rates so low that refi would currently take 60-90 days.
April 18, 2012 at 10:06 AM #741849Former SD residentParticipantDo you have to be a member of PenFed to get those rates? Also, tried calling Absolute Mortage and they are not licensed in NC. Does anyone have any names for me? Thanks
April 18, 2012 at 10:59 AM #741852allParticipantaimloan.com?
April 18, 2012 at 11:06 AM #741854ljinvestorParticipantI was also going to recommend aimloan.com as I have had positive experiences with them on investment property loans and they can do business in NC.
You mentioned $265k loan balance and if you have great credit scores and LTV of 80% or less then you aimloan is currently showing 4% on 30yr with only a couple hundred dollars closing costs
For Penfed you have to be a member but you can join an association for $15-$20 to qualify.
April 18, 2012 at 11:31 AM #741857Former SD residentParticipanthas anyone used goodmortgage.com? saw them on the mortgageprofessors.com website, so far they have the best rate of 3.99% with 4K credit, but they have mixed reviews online. trying to follow the advice of if sounds too good to be true it is, but then again HLS said it may be possible to get 3.875% no cost loan.
April 18, 2012 at 11:34 AM #741858Former SD residentParticipantor amerisave? currently offering 4% with $3430 credit
April 18, 2012 at 12:06 PM #741860briansd1GuestI have used ING Direct.
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