Redfin vs. traditional broker

[sdrealtor]

You sound more the exception than the rule and glad it went well. It doesnt always and you are operating from a limited pool of experience.

At the end of the day those of us in the business know the name at the top of the business card, the brokerage is meaningless whether its Redfin, Coldwell Banker, Remax, Compass or otherwise. What matters is the name at the bottom of the business card, the agent who you are entrusting to represent your best interests.

Please re read the analyst report I posted. Growing revenue by discounting and heavy marketing spend is not getting stronger. Buying houses to flip the last couple years is likely in their revenue and does not represent growth.

Through my brokerages account I have access to many analyst reports and they all have an underperform/sell rating with a target price of $25 or lower. Their stock is in a bubble at the moment. If you own any Id seriously consider selling it.

[svelte]

All I own are mutual funds…I’m not into the legalized gambling of individual stocks. 🙂

I think Redfin will be a stronger and stronger player going forward. Time will tell which of us is right.

[EconProf]

I did not know that. Thanks.

[EconProf]

The above comment referring to the 1/2% “refund” if you go on to Redfin for your purchase, after listing & selling through them.

[Coronita]

I thought I read somewhere that a few months ago Redfin laid off/furloughed half of their staff.

And I think tech/investor funded Compass did close to 20% RIF around April…

Is that true?

[svelte]

[quote=Coronita]I thought I read somewhere that a few months ago Redfin laid off/furloughed half of their staff.
[/quote]

I’m not sure if it was half, but they did go through a furlough. So did my company. So did a lot, if not most, companies.

The good news at my place is that they brought them all back. And it is starting to look like we’re going to need to hire! We just got permission this week to start advertising for any position we can’t fill internally.

[svelte]

[quote=EconProf]The above comment referring to the 1/2% “refund” if you go on to Redfin for your purchase, after listing & selling through them.[/quote]

lol thanks for the clarification – was wondering what it was about. 🙂

Here are the specifics:

https://www.redfin.com/disclaimer

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte]All I own are mutual funds…I’m not into the legalized gambling of individual stocks. 🙂

I think Redfin will be a stronger and stronger player going forward. Time will tell which of us is right.[/quote]

I’ll take that bet but advise you against it as I only take bets I know I already won like this one way back when. You can read through it but if you want to skip to the end I was right the rest werent. The actual declines came in at about half of my worst case scenario. Then we doubled down on another bet a few years later and I easily won that one too.

Shambling Towards Affordability

[sdrealtor]

[quote=Coronita]I thought I read somewhere that a few months ago Redfin laid off/furloughed half of their staff.

And I think tech/investor funded Compass did close to 20% RIF around April…

Is that true?[/quote]

LOL another house of cards. They have hundreds of software enginerds making Coronita wages. The is no way real estate brokerage profitability supports those salaries. That company was built by VC’s to be sold not to change the industry. I’ll take this bet from anyone who wants to take it also

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte]All I own are mutual funds…I’m not into the legalized gambling of individual stocks. 🙂

I think Redfin will be a stronger and stronger player going forward. Time will tell which of us is right.[/quote]

I’ll take that bet but advise you against it as I only take bets I know I already won like this one way back when. [/quote]

Ok but let’s define the parameters. When I showed you data with their sales up and their stock price up, you batted those down as not applicable because they didn’t fit your criteria of a successful company for some reason.

What criteria can we use? Their number of homes sold per year higher in 5 years than today? I think that’s a fair estimation of “stronger”.

[svelte]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=Coronita]I thought I read somewhere that a few months ago Redfin laid off/furloughed half of their staff.

And I think tech/investor funded Compass did close to 20% RIF around April…

Is that true?[/quote]

LOL another house of cards. They have hundreds of software enginerds making Coronita wages. The is no way real estate brokerage profitability supports those salaries. That company was built by VC’s to be sold not to change the industry. I’ll take this bet from anyone who wants to take it also[/quote]

Wow, Redfin really upsets the realtors! House of cards! The more information gets in the hands of the general public via the internet, the less need there is for advisors on anything, from homes to mortgages to finance to autos. Look what has happened to financial advisors – their pay is dropping. Mortgages – lots of folks on here are getting their mortgages online now. And cars – well Carvana and Vroom are taking off. I bought a new car this week and didn’t even consider Carvana and Vroom. I still like to test drive, but there are even other ways to get those – LA Auto Show and Turo for example.

Once old guys like me die off, the conversion will quicken as my kids generation is less likely than I am to deal with an individual – they do everything online now.

I submit to you that the main reason for a realtor or Redfin is to unlock the door to show you the house. Someone needs to keep thieves out. Otherwise, the fair market value can be determined through appraisals and paperwork is via standard form now. At least in California.

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte]All I own are mutual funds…I’m not into the legalized gambling of individual stocks. 🙂

I think Redfin will be a stronger and stronger player going forward. Time will tell which of us is right.[/quote]

I’ll take that bet but advise you against it as I only take bets I know I already won like this one way back when. [/quote]

Ok but let’s define the parameters. When I showed you data with their sales up and their stock price up, you batted those down as not applicable because they didn’t fit your criteria of a successful company for some reason.

What criteria can we use? Their number of homes sold per year higher in 5 years than today? I think that’s a fair estimation of “stronger”.[/quote]

I only use one criteria. Profitability. Buying market share is easy when you are playing with VC/IPO money but it only last so long. To be viable as a going concern you need to be profitable. Eventually you have to make money. I think we’d all agree on that

Like seriously. They have a $4B market cap, never made a penny and probably won’t. Some joker in Carlsbad is more profitable then they are or will ever be

[sdrealtor]

[quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor][quote=Coronita]I thought I read somewhere that a few months ago Redfin laid off/furloughed half of their staff.

And I think tech/investor funded Compass did close to 20% RIF around April…

Is that true?[/quote]

LOL another house of cards. They have hundreds of software enginerds making Coronita wages. The is no way real estate brokerage profitability supports those salaries. That company was built by VC’s to be sold not to change the industry. I’ll take this bet from anyone who wants to take it also[/quote]

Wow, Redfin really upsets the realtors! House of cards! The more information gets in the hands of the general public via the internet, the less need there is for advisors on anything, from homes to mortgages to finance to autos. Look what has happened to financial advisors – their pay is dropping. Mortgages – lots of folks on here are getting their mortgages online now. And cars – well Carvana and Vroom are taking off. I bought a new car this week and didn’t even consider Carvana and Vroom. I still like to test drive, but there are even other ways to get those – LA Auto Show and Turo for example.

Once old guys like me die off, the conversion will quicken as my kids generation is less likely than I am to deal with an individual – they do everything online now.

I submit to you that the main reason for a realtor or Redfin is to unlock the door to show you the house. Someone needs to keep thieves out. Otherwise, the fair market value can be determined through appraisals and paperwork is via standard form now. At least in California.[/quote]

You’re going down the rabbit hole now. I only comment and care about companies like redfin, compass and Zillow as a potential investor. I have run an efficient, profitable business for close to 20 years. Most in this business (make that nearly all in this business) never achieve close to that. I’ve made several very profitable personal real estate investments that have made me as much as I made selling real estate to others. That is how the smartest agents use their front row seat in the business to get ahead.

I always laugh at all the top producers with massive mortgages. A downturn and only the strongest make it through with their homes. I watched dozens on alleged top agents and mortgage guys walk away from homes ten years ago.

In my mind if you can’t make a killing trading your own account you’ll never get a chance at my money. I’m almost to the point where my annual dividend income exceeds my earned income. Look at our host Rich. He made a great move at the right time buying his home and has done well investing elsewhere. Smart people do business with people that are successful trading their own accounts. Everyone one else hopes for the best whether they realize it or not

[Coronita]

[quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte][quote=sdrealtor][quote=svelte]All I own are mutual funds…I’m not into the legalized gambling of individual stocks. 🙂

I think Redfin will be a stronger and stronger player going forward. Time will tell which of us is right.[/quote]

I’ll take that bet but advise you against it as I only take bets I know I already won like this one way back when. [/quote]

Ok but let’s define the parameters. When I showed you data with their sales up and their stock price up, you batted those down as not applicable because they didn’t fit your criteria of a successful company for some reason.

What criteria can we use? Their number of homes sold per year higher in 5 years than today? I think that’s a fair estimation of “stronger”.[/quote]

I only use one criteria. Profitability. Buying market share is easy when you are playing with VC/IPO money but it only last so long. To be viable as a going concern you need to be profitable. Eventually you have to make money. I think we’d all agree on that

Like seriously. They have a $4B market cap, never made a penny and probably won’t. Some joker in Carlsbad is more profitable then they are or will ever be[/quote]

Wait, so basically the Compass business model is like the business model of CarOrder.com and MoviePass where you sell (give?) a loss leader product away in exchange for the right to name you as a customer with the hopes that your business will reach critical mass and have a huge pool of customers that you can sell much more lucrative business or services to, like Google ads.

[svelte]

We shall see if Redfin is profitable in 5 years.

I didn’t even know about the iBuyer concept – looks like it has about 3% of the market share of the 18 biggest markets:

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/ibuyers-rapidly-snap-up-market-share-across-southern-metros-redfin-finds-300972952.html

Seriously, if I were buying and selling a home I wouldn’t really care if Redfin was profitable right now – I’d just look at how I could get the most money.

As for the quality of the agents, I can’t really vouch because I’ve only dealt with two and they were both great. I could tell you horror stories about traditional realtors I’ve dealt with. For example, when I was selling a house about 15 years ago, my first realtor approached me with a deal to sell my house for $100K over the asking price if I would return that $100K to the buyer after the transaction. I fired him. Another one told me he submitted my bid on a home in northern California to the seller’s agent. When I didn’t get a response from the seller, I contacted him directly. Apparently the offer was never presented to him. We were able to work out a deal.

[Author]

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