Home › Forums › Financial Markets/Economics › Recession during a labor shortage?
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May 3, 2022 at 7:42 PM #825367May 3, 2022 at 9:40 PM #825371JPJonesParticipant
Thanks guys! These are some great takes and I appreciate the time. We’ve heard ‘stagflation’ kicked around and know happened in the ’70s. I don’t have a good understand of what it looks like, but I wonder if that’s what we’re already seeing. I took a trip to a couple Targets and a BestBuy yesterday with my kid and was shocked at how empty the shelves were outside of the food isles. Add to that, we bought a car in this earlier this year. We started shopping last October and couldn’t get the exact one we wanted until the end of March, which we only got because we gave up on an important feature.
May 4, 2022 at 12:56 AM #825374flyerParticipantEP, so glad to hear you’re doing well. Although there do seem to be more and more people who can’t make it CA, we know a number of people, like you, who have chosen to leave CA, and not because they couldn’t make it here.
Many feel they have maxed out their California experience over a period of many years, and just want a change, or have other reasons. Most are in a position where they can come back anytime, so leaving temporarily, or otherwise, is not really an issue.
Personally, we love everything about our lives in CA, and, after seeing what most of the world has to offer, really don’t feel the need to make a change, but still respect the need or desire others may have to do so.
May 4, 2022 at 5:00 AM #825375EconProfParticipantThanks Flyer, and completely agree. COVID plus the ability to work remotely from home has upended decisions of where to live in many ways. It’s not just a San Diego vs. St. George issue. People are fleeing the big cities for both outer suburbs and ex-urbs (example–LA to Riverside County).
St. George has a building boom of big houses near our airport because of direct daily flights to LA so CA workers can check in once a month or once a week with their employer.May 4, 2022 at 5:04 AM #825376EconProfParticipant[quote=flyer]EP, so glad to hear you’re doing well. Although there do seem to be more and more people who can’t make it CA, we know a number of people, like you, who have chosen to leave CA, and not because they couldn’t make it here.
Many feel they have maxed out their California experience over a period of many years, and just want a change, or have other reasons. Most are in a position where they can come back anytime, so leaving temporarily, or otherwise, is not really an issue.
Personally, we love everything about our lives in CA, and, after seeing what most of the world has to offer, really don’t feel the need to make a change, but still respect the need or desire others may have to do so.[/quote]
May 4, 2022 at 5:06 AM #825377EconProfParticipantWhoops, still trying to figure out the Piggington posting rules!
May 4, 2022 at 7:43 AM #825378sdrealtorParticipant[quote=EconProf]Thanks Flyer, and completely agree. COVID plus the ability to work remotely from home has upended decisions of where to live in many ways. It’s not just a San Diego vs. St. George issue. People are fleeing the big cities for both outer suburbs and ex-urbs (example–LA to Riverside County).
St. George has a building boom of big houses near our airport because of direct daily flights to LA so CA workers can check in once a month or once a week with their employer.[/quote]But none of that has anything to do with why you left. You constantly put forth subterfuge and strangely, like many, choose to take repeated pot shots at a California that treated you very well in life’s journey. I’m pretty certain you already or someday will look back and cherish your time here. You left to be with family and that’s a wonderful reason! There’s no need to justify it any further. You don’t have to put a beat down on California to make you feel better about leaving. You had the best reason already. All kidding aside I hope you and they are doing great
May 5, 2022 at 1:00 PM #825405gzzParticipant1. The labor “shortage” are cheap businessmen unwilling to pay market wages.
2. The economy is booming to the point of overheating due to the covid stimulus bills being too large. Not ideal, but better than undershooting.
3. Nominal GDP and tax revenue are on
May 5, 2022 at 2:10 PM #825406gzzParticipant$575 for a run down 3/1 that is missing its siding and requires $4500 in meth repairs?
A good reminder that while Utah and other interior west markets like Phoenix, Denver, Bend, Sacramento, are cheaper than San Diego, they aren’t that much cheaper.
Here’s a much nicer 3/1 for $599 in city heights: 3087 38th St, San Diego, CA 92105.
Here’s a nice looking 2/2 in Lakeside for $575:
12516 Castle Court Dr, Lakeside, CA 92040Seems easier to just move 10 miles to the suburbs than to a methlab house in SLC for the same price.
How much meth did they cook up there that they randomly dropped enough on the carpet to detect and need thousands to remove it?
May 5, 2022 at 4:27 PM #825408sdrealtorParticipantEconProf has been in Utah for a year. That’s sufficient time to have cooked several batches of meth. I’ll defer to him as our meth expert
May 5, 2022 at 7:34 PM #825411EconProfParticipant[quote=sdrealtor]EconProf has been in Utah for a year. That’s sufficient time to have cooked several batches of meth. I’ll defer to him as our meth expert[/quote]
Stay classy, sdr.
May 6, 2022 at 8:04 AM #825416sdrealtorParticipant[quote=EconProf][quote=sdrealtor]EconProf has been in Utah for a year. That’s sufficient time to have cooked several batches of meth. I’ll defer to him as our meth expert[/quote]
Stay classy, sdr.[/quote]
OK WW. Let’s role tape on some data. Top emerging markets in America per WSJ. Utah seems to be underperforming. Give you one guess where 20% of the top 10 and top 50 markets are? Hint: Utah did not have a single entry in the top 50. Arizona did have one but it was Yuma so basically Baja California
May 10, 2022 at 2:35 PM #825472sdduuuudeParticipant[quote=gzz]1. The labor “shortage” are cheap businessmen unwilling to pay market wages.
[/quote]An increase in labor cost is devastating to a business plan because it can force a business owner to raise prices so much that their own business becomes no longer viable. It is a frightening prospect.
I believe this phenomenon – how higher wages force labor-heavy business into pricing themselves out of the market – is why labor shortages can turn to job shortages so quickly.
To call them “cheap” is very unfair and demonstrates a lack of understanding of what a business owner has to deal with..
May 10, 2022 at 4:21 PM #825474gzzParticipantEmployers too often have an attitude of entitlement to cheap labor, and we Americans excessively valorize “job creators” like they are providing a gratuitous service.
People think when they charge higher prices it is because of the merit of their labor, product or service but when someone else raises prices it is unfair inflation.
Over the past 45 years corporate profits have taken a larger share of GDP and labor a small share. I haven’t seen the numbers yet, but if employers are making less because of rising wages, I think that’s great.
May 10, 2022 at 4:54 PM #825475XBoxBoyParticipant[quote=sdduuuude]
An increase in labor cost is devastating to a business plan because it can force a business owner to raise prices so much that their own business becomes no longer viable. It is a frightening prospect.
[/quote]If a business is no longer viable because market rate for wages rise that’s not something to cry about. That’s called capitalism. The constant replacement of existing businesses with businesses that are more capable of meeting the market’s needs is a strength of market based economies.
[quote=sdduuuude]
To call them “cheap” is very unfair and demonstrates a lack of understanding of what a business owner has to deal with..[/quote]As a former business owner, I don’t agree. If market rates for wages rise, a business owner needs to pay them and/or find other ways to maintain employee loyalty. Not whine to the media about how they can’t find employees. And given how incomes for the wealthiest part of our population have risen so much and how rank and file workers have lagged behind, I suggest you rethink where you put your sympathies.
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