Real estate vs cash or gold

[cr]

Today was a forced rally.

To me it just shows how many traders really expected this decline to continue.

So the shorts are covered, now what? These banks are suddenly profitable again?

Yeah right.

Fleckenstein (the mullet) ripped the shorting ban last night with a great line in response to the claim that shorting artificially drove prices down, and said that if the prices are artifically low, then where are the buyers?

Look at the stocks that aren’t up today, and I think it’s telling of what’s really happening. This quasi-government induced rally is only designed to pad the holdings the Government just bought with more of our borrowed money.

It will end and stocks will plummet back to where they need to be.

[stockstradr]

So it that a paper gain or booked profit ?

I must admit, I was reporting increase in paper profit over a two-day period. Also, I didn’t include the paper profit made on gold in my wife’s portfolio; I increased her 401K by 20% in about ten days. She’s thrilled.

I haven’t sold and I’m still holding all my gold. I see gold was up today, charts showing NY spot price is at a 30-day high.

I don’t have the answers on when to book profits on gold, but I’ll share my GUESSES on the gold market.

I believe this week was one of the most significant inflection points for gold in many years. The collapse of the dollar will now accelerate as the world is losing confidence in America’s ability to handle a national debt apparently expanding exponentially (Wars we cannot afford, Social Security underfunded, previously existing national debt, trade deficit, bailout of Fannie/Freddie, AND AIG, AND Bear Stearns, AND now the MASSIVE sector-wide bailout of the entire banking and mortgage system, buying up all their bad debt).

As the world now starts to flee the dollar, the Million Dollar Question is WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

The markets answered this week: at least in part, as some are clearly trading into gold.

While some of that was simply driven by fear (seeking safe haven from market chaos), the last 24 hours were very revealing.

I think you would agree that with the announcement of the new wider bailout, at least there has been an increase in the perception of increased market stability. Then as expected the stock market rallied, but we would have expected to see the gold market turn south as money moved back from gold into stocks.

That didn’t happen.

Instead, gold showed strength – because investors saw that the new bailout plan involves TRILLIONS more of debt load on the shoulders of the dollar, making it far more inevitable our government will eventually (or immediately) be forced to inflate its way out of this debt load, by devaluing the dollar.

So, I believe the dollar now renews its decline, and gold will soar through $1,000/ounce within months (or weeks) and then head towards $2,000/ounce.

[stockstradr]

So it that a paper gain or booked profit ?

I must admit, I was reporting increase in paper profit over a two-day period. Also, I didn’t include the paper profit made on gold in my wife’s portfolio; I increased her 401K by 20% in about ten days. She’s thrilled.

I haven’t sold and I’m still holding all my gold. I see gold was up today, charts showing NY spot price is at a 30-day high.

I don’t have the answers on when to book profits on gold, but I’ll share my GUESSES on the gold market.

I believe this week was one of the most significant inflection points for gold in many years. The collapse of the dollar will now accelerate as the world is losing confidence in America’s ability to handle a national debt apparently expanding exponentially (Wars we cannot afford, Social Security underfunded, previously existing national debt, trade deficit, bailout of Fannie/Freddie, AND AIG, AND Bear Stearns, AND now the MASSIVE sector-wide bailout of the entire banking and mortgage system, buying up all their bad debt).

As the world now starts to flee the dollar, the Million Dollar Question is WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

The markets answered this week: at least in part, as some are clearly trading into gold.

While some of that was simply driven by fear (seeking safe haven from market chaos), the last 24 hours were very revealing.

I think you would agree that with the announcement of the new wider bailout, at least there has been an increase in the perception of increased market stability. Then as expected the stock market rallied, but we would have expected to see the gold market turn south as money moved back from gold into stocks.

That didn’t happen.

Instead, gold showed strength – because investors saw that the new bailout plan involves TRILLIONS more of debt load on the shoulders of the dollar, making it far more inevitable our government will eventually (or immediately) be forced to inflate its way out of this debt load, by devaluing the dollar.

So, I believe the dollar now renews its decline, and gold will soar through $1,000/ounce within months (or weeks) and then head towards $2,000/ounce.

[stockstradr]

So it that a paper gain or booked profit ?

I must admit, I was reporting increase in paper profit over a two-day period. Also, I didn’t include the paper profit made on gold in my wife’s portfolio; I increased her 401K by 20% in about ten days. She’s thrilled.

I haven’t sold and I’m still holding all my gold. I see gold was up today, charts showing NY spot price is at a 30-day high.

I don’t have the answers on when to book profits on gold, but I’ll share my GUESSES on the gold market.

I believe this week was one of the most significant inflection points for gold in many years. The collapse of the dollar will now accelerate as the world is losing confidence in America’s ability to handle a national debt apparently expanding exponentially (Wars we cannot afford, Social Security underfunded, previously existing national debt, trade deficit, bailout of Fannie/Freddie, AND AIG, AND Bear Stearns, AND now the MASSIVE sector-wide bailout of the entire banking and mortgage system, buying up all their bad debt).

As the world now starts to flee the dollar, the Million Dollar Question is WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

The markets answered this week: at least in part, as some are clearly trading into gold.

While some of that was simply driven by fear (seeking safe haven from market chaos), the last 24 hours were very revealing.

I think you would agree that with the announcement of the new wider bailout, at least there has been an increase in the perception of increased market stability. Then as expected the stock market rallied, but we would have expected to see the gold market turn south as money moved back from gold into stocks.

That didn’t happen.

Instead, gold showed strength – because investors saw that the new bailout plan involves TRILLIONS more of debt load on the shoulders of the dollar, making it far more inevitable our government will eventually (or immediately) be forced to inflate its way out of this debt load, by devaluing the dollar.

So, I believe the dollar now renews its decline, and gold will soar through $1,000/ounce within months (or weeks) and then head towards $2,000/ounce.

[stockstradr]

So it that a paper gain or booked profit ?

I must admit, I was reporting increase in paper profit over a two-day period. Also, I didn’t include the paper profit made on gold in my wife’s portfolio; I increased her 401K by 20% in about ten days. She’s thrilled.

I haven’t sold and I’m still holding all my gold. I see gold was up today, charts showing NY spot price is at a 30-day high.

I don’t have the answers on when to book profits on gold, but I’ll share my GUESSES on the gold market.

I believe this week was one of the most significant inflection points for gold in many years. The collapse of the dollar will now accelerate as the world is losing confidence in America’s ability to handle a national debt apparently expanding exponentially (Wars we cannot afford, Social Security underfunded, previously existing national debt, trade deficit, bailout of Fannie/Freddie, AND AIG, AND Bear Stearns, AND now the MASSIVE sector-wide bailout of the entire banking and mortgage system, buying up all their bad debt).

As the world now starts to flee the dollar, the Million Dollar Question is WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

The markets answered this week: at least in part, as some are clearly trading into gold.

While some of that was simply driven by fear (seeking safe haven from market chaos), the last 24 hours were very revealing.

I think you would agree that with the announcement of the new wider bailout, at least there has been an increase in the perception of increased market stability. Then as expected the stock market rallied, but we would have expected to see the gold market turn south as money moved back from gold into stocks.

That didn’t happen.

Instead, gold showed strength – because investors saw that the new bailout plan involves TRILLIONS more of debt load on the shoulders of the dollar, making it far more inevitable our government will eventually (or immediately) be forced to inflate its way out of this debt load, by devaluing the dollar.

So, I believe the dollar now renews its decline, and gold will soar through $1,000/ounce within months (or weeks) and then head towards $2,000/ounce.

[stockstradr]

So it that a paper gain or booked profit ?

I must admit, I was reporting increase in paper profit over a two-day period. Also, I didn’t include the paper profit made on gold in my wife’s portfolio; I increased her 401K by 20% in about ten days. She’s thrilled.

I haven’t sold and I’m still holding all my gold. I see gold was up today, charts showing NY spot price is at a 30-day high.

I don’t have the answers on when to book profits on gold, but I’ll share my GUESSES on the gold market.

I believe this week was one of the most significant inflection points for gold in many years. The collapse of the dollar will now accelerate as the world is losing confidence in America’s ability to handle a national debt apparently expanding exponentially (Wars we cannot afford, Social Security underfunded, previously existing national debt, trade deficit, bailout of Fannie/Freddie, AND AIG, AND Bear Stearns, AND now the MASSIVE sector-wide bailout of the entire banking and mortgage system, buying up all their bad debt).

As the world now starts to flee the dollar, the Million Dollar Question is WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

The markets answered this week: at least in part, as some are clearly trading into gold.

While some of that was simply driven by fear (seeking safe haven from market chaos), the last 24 hours were very revealing.

I think you would agree that with the announcement of the new wider bailout, at least there has been an increase in the perception of increased market stability. Then as expected the stock market rallied, but we would have expected to see the gold market turn south as money moved back from gold into stocks.

That didn’t happen.

Instead, gold showed strength – because investors saw that the new bailout plan involves TRILLIONS more of debt load on the shoulders of the dollar, making it far more inevitable our government will eventually (or immediately) be forced to inflate its way out of this debt load, by devaluing the dollar.

So, I believe the dollar now renews its decline, and gold will soar through $1,000/ounce within months (or weeks) and then head towards $2,000/ounce.

[wannabe2077]

I have been researching the housing bubble. Spike in gold and commodities is a distinct possibility.

wannabe

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/

[wannabe2077]

I have been researching the housing bubble. Spike in gold and commodities is a distinct possibility.

wannabe

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/

[wannabe2077]

I have been researching the housing bubble. Spike in gold and commodities is a distinct possibility.

wannabe

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/

[wannabe2077]

I have been researching the housing bubble. Spike in gold and commodities is a distinct possibility.

wannabe

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/

[wannabe2077]

I have been researching the housing bubble. Spike in gold and commodities is a distinct possibility.

wannabe

http://journeytocriticalmass.blogspot.com/

[Anonymous]

Some more confused ramblings.

When we say dollar will decline, are we saying that it is against just the ‘real’ stuff like gold/oil/houses, or also against other (fiat) currencies.

I understand it might be a mix of the two, but lets see how it might turn out, by taking extremes conditions of the two cases.

Lets consider the first scenerio:
If it is against just the stuff, and other currencies also decline (more or less same amount), it implies a world wide inflation.
Every body in the world just adds a zero to the price of everything.
Savers are loosers, the ones who took a loan (US gov on top of the list) win.
Things go back to the old way.
Only question : Does that require that US houses also inflate ? US Wages ?

What about the other scenerio:
If it the other way, only the dollar falls.
Rest (the real stuff and ‘other’ currencies) remain equally priced in terms of each other.
Is that a stable position ?

What happens then to other stuff?
Anything produced within US remains priced same in US$, anything external/global rises in $ terms.

Lets do a simple projection.
Dollar drops to its one-fourth ‘value’ in around two years.
Possible ? Lets say, yes.

Today:
Yen: 1 cent
Oil: 100 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 1000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 20M Y
US domestic company stock (Not sure an example): 10 $ = 1000 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 50 $ = 5000 Y

After two years:
Yen: 4 cents
Oil: 400 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 4000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 5M Y
US domestic company stock : 10 $ 250 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 200 $ = 5000 Y

How can this situation continue? You (americans) wont be able to afford gas.
US Imports will be unviable.

US exporters will be in a great position.
Foreign buyers will buy the US stocks and US houses (now much cheaper for them)
But they need to pay for them in dollars !!
So now they need to buy the dollars again.

I think this is not a stable situation.

The very fact that dollar falls and US stuff is cheaper for others, will encourage them to buy US produce and in turn prop up dollar again.

On the side note:

WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

IF ‘I’ had lots and lots of dollars, I wont buy gold, Euro etc.
I will buy US houses. They are cheap compared to houses in my third world town, considering the quality of life, infrastructure etc.

Oh wait, I should rather wait for our own little real estate bubble to burst.

[Anonymous]

Some more confused ramblings.

When we say dollar will decline, are we saying that it is against just the ‘real’ stuff like gold/oil/houses, or also against other (fiat) currencies.

I understand it might be a mix of the two, but lets see how it might turn out, by taking extremes conditions of the two cases.

Lets consider the first scenerio:
If it is against just the stuff, and other currencies also decline (more or less same amount), it implies a world wide inflation.
Every body in the world just adds a zero to the price of everything.
Savers are loosers, the ones who took a loan (US gov on top of the list) win.
Things go back to the old way.
Only question : Does that require that US houses also inflate ? US Wages ?

What about the other scenerio:
If it the other way, only the dollar falls.
Rest (the real stuff and ‘other’ currencies) remain equally priced in terms of each other.
Is that a stable position ?

What happens then to other stuff?
Anything produced within US remains priced same in US$, anything external/global rises in $ terms.

Lets do a simple projection.
Dollar drops to its one-fourth ‘value’ in around two years.
Possible ? Lets say, yes.

Today:
Yen: 1 cent
Oil: 100 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 1000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 20M Y
US domestic company stock (Not sure an example): 10 $ = 1000 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 50 $ = 5000 Y

After two years:
Yen: 4 cents
Oil: 400 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 4000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 5M Y
US domestic company stock : 10 $ 250 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 200 $ = 5000 Y

How can this situation continue? You (americans) wont be able to afford gas.
US Imports will be unviable.

US exporters will be in a great position.
Foreign buyers will buy the US stocks and US houses (now much cheaper for them)
But they need to pay for them in dollars !!
So now they need to buy the dollars again.

I think this is not a stable situation.

The very fact that dollar falls and US stuff is cheaper for others, will encourage them to buy US produce and in turn prop up dollar again.

On the side note:

WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

IF ‘I’ had lots and lots of dollars, I wont buy gold, Euro etc.
I will buy US houses. They are cheap compared to houses in my third world town, considering the quality of life, infrastructure etc.

Oh wait, I should rather wait for our own little real estate bubble to burst.

[Anonymous]

Some more confused ramblings.

When we say dollar will decline, are we saying that it is against just the ‘real’ stuff like gold/oil/houses, or also against other (fiat) currencies.

I understand it might be a mix of the two, but lets see how it might turn out, by taking extremes conditions of the two cases.

Lets consider the first scenerio:
If it is against just the stuff, and other currencies also decline (more or less same amount), it implies a world wide inflation.
Every body in the world just adds a zero to the price of everything.
Savers are loosers, the ones who took a loan (US gov on top of the list) win.
Things go back to the old way.
Only question : Does that require that US houses also inflate ? US Wages ?

What about the other scenerio:
If it the other way, only the dollar falls.
Rest (the real stuff and ‘other’ currencies) remain equally priced in terms of each other.
Is that a stable position ?

What happens then to other stuff?
Anything produced within US remains priced same in US$, anything external/global rises in $ terms.

Lets do a simple projection.
Dollar drops to its one-fourth ‘value’ in around two years.
Possible ? Lets say, yes.

Today:
Yen: 1 cent
Oil: 100 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 1000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 20M Y
US domestic company stock (Not sure an example): 10 $ = 1000 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 50 $ = 5000 Y

After two years:
Yen: 4 cents
Oil: 400 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 4000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 5M Y
US domestic company stock : 10 $ 250 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 200 $ = 5000 Y

How can this situation continue? You (americans) wont be able to afford gas.
US Imports will be unviable.

US exporters will be in a great position.
Foreign buyers will buy the US stocks and US houses (now much cheaper for them)
But they need to pay for them in dollars !!
So now they need to buy the dollars again.

I think this is not a stable situation.

The very fact that dollar falls and US stuff is cheaper for others, will encourage them to buy US produce and in turn prop up dollar again.

On the side note:

WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

IF ‘I’ had lots and lots of dollars, I wont buy gold, Euro etc.
I will buy US houses. They are cheap compared to houses in my third world town, considering the quality of life, infrastructure etc.

Oh wait, I should rather wait for our own little real estate bubble to burst.

[Anonymous]

Some more confused ramblings.

When we say dollar will decline, are we saying that it is against just the ‘real’ stuff like gold/oil/houses, or also against other (fiat) currencies.

I understand it might be a mix of the two, but lets see how it might turn out, by taking extremes conditions of the two cases.

Lets consider the first scenerio:
If it is against just the stuff, and other currencies also decline (more or less same amount), it implies a world wide inflation.
Every body in the world just adds a zero to the price of everything.
Savers are loosers, the ones who took a loan (US gov on top of the list) win.
Things go back to the old way.
Only question : Does that require that US houses also inflate ? US Wages ?

What about the other scenerio:
If it the other way, only the dollar falls.
Rest (the real stuff and ‘other’ currencies) remain equally priced in terms of each other.
Is that a stable position ?

What happens then to other stuff?
Anything produced within US remains priced same in US$, anything external/global rises in $ terms.

Lets do a simple projection.
Dollar drops to its one-fourth ‘value’ in around two years.
Possible ? Lets say, yes.

Today:
Yen: 1 cent
Oil: 100 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 1000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 20M Y
US domestic company stock (Not sure an example): 10 $ = 1000 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 50 $ = 5000 Y

After two years:
Yen: 4 cents
Oil: 400 $ = 10K Y
Gold: 4000 $ = 100K Y
US House: 200K $ = 5M Y
US domestic company stock : 10 $ 250 Y
US global company stock (Boeing): 200 $ = 5000 Y

How can this situation continue? You (americans) wont be able to afford gas.
US Imports will be unviable.

US exporters will be in a great position.
Foreign buyers will buy the US stocks and US houses (now much cheaper for them)
But they need to pay for them in dollars !!
So now they need to buy the dollars again.

I think this is not a stable situation.

The very fact that dollar falls and US stuff is cheaper for others, will encourage them to buy US produce and in turn prop up dollar again.

On the side note:

WHAT will they trade their millions of dollars into? EUROS? GOLD? RMB? Swiss Francs?

IF ‘I’ had lots and lots of dollars, I wont buy gold, Euro etc.
I will buy US houses. They are cheap compared to houses in my third world town, considering the quality of life, infrastructure etc.

Oh wait, I should rather wait for our own little real estate bubble to burst.

[Author]

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