Real Estate Bubble and California’s Economic Growth

[lonestar2000]

An excellent lecture by the Department of Economics at Humbold State University has been posted on YouTube in three parts. It explains a great deal about economics and how it affects housing, with special emphasis on its history in California. An excellent presentation that even us newbies can understant.

Grab some snacks, plop down in your easy chair, and learn a bit about how this all came about.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

[Ex-SD]

If you haven’t watched this yet………..you should. Dr. Thornberg tells it like it is. Data Quick should hire him to report the true status of the housing market. The only thing I disagree with him about is that he believes prices will drop to where they should be to equal the buying power of the consumer………..but that prices will return to where they are today by 2012. I don’t think that’s possible because buying power of the consumer can’t possibly match today’s housing prices for many, many years. However, he did this presentation in November of 2006 and I wonder if he’s changed his predictions now that he sees how this is unfolding in the middle of 2007?

Good find!

[Ex-SD]

If you haven’t watched this yet………..you should. Dr. Thornberg tells it like it is. Data Quick should hire him to report the true status of the housing market. The only thing I disagree with him about is that he believes prices will drop to where they should be to equal the buying power of the consumer………..but that prices will return to where they are today by 2012. I don’t think that’s possible because buying power of the consumer can’t possibly match today’s housing prices for many, many years. However, he did this presentation in November of 2006 and I wonder if he’s changed his predictions now that he sees how this is unfolding in the middle of 2007?

Good find!

[Ex-SD]

If you haven’t watched this yet………..you should. Dr. Thornberg tells it like it is. Data Quick should hire him to report the true status of the housing market. The only thing I disagree with him about is that he believes prices will drop to where they should be to equal the buying power of the consumer………..but that prices will return to where they are today by 2012. I don’t think that’s possible because buying power of the consumer can’t possibly match today’s housing prices for many, many years. However, he did this presentation in November of 2006 and I wonder if he’s changed his predictions now that he sees how this is unfolding in the middle of 2007?

Good find!

[PerryChase]

The best that public figures can do is warn us. They have to be circumspect as not to cause general panic and “a self fulfilling prophecy.” They need to keep the public feeling positive and working hard.

The last time, prices did not return to 1989 nominal levels until 1997. This time, I don’t think that prices will return to 2005 nominal level until 2017. Time will tell.

[PerryChase]

The best that public figures can do is warn us. They have to be circumspect as not to cause general panic and “a self fulfilling prophecy.” They need to keep the public feeling positive and working hard.

The last time, prices did not return to 1989 nominal levels until 1997. This time, I don’t think that prices will return to 2005 nominal level until 2017. Time will tell.

[PerryChase]

The best that public figures can do is warn us. They have to be circumspect as not to cause general panic and “a self fulfilling prophecy.” They need to keep the public feeling positive and working hard.

The last time, prices did not return to 1989 nominal levels until 1997. This time, I don’t think that prices will return to 2005 nominal level until 2017. Time will tell.

[Ex-SD]

PerryChase, You and I are on the same page. Incomes will not rise enough to enable buyers to qualify for mortgages (unless they re-introduce these wacky mortgage products again) until 2017 or later.

[Ex-SD]

PerryChase, You and I are on the same page. Incomes will not rise enough to enable buyers to qualify for mortgages (unless they re-introduce these wacky mortgage products again) until 2017 or later.

[Ex-SD]

PerryChase, You and I are on the same page. Incomes will not rise enough to enable buyers to qualify for mortgages (unless they re-introduce these wacky mortgage products again) until 2017 or later.

[lonestar2000]

The Midwest areas (Texas, etc.) will most doubtedly return to fundamentals well before 2017, but places such as California, Florida, Vegas, etc. that had the largest price runups will take a very long time to reach equilibrium.

I agree with Thornberg that we’re in the middle of a long and painful adjustment which was completely predictable and necessary.

[lonestar2000]

The Midwest areas (Texas, etc.) will most doubtedly return to fundamentals well before 2017, but places such as California, Florida, Vegas, etc. that had the largest price runups will take a very long time to reach equilibrium.

I agree with Thornberg that we’re in the middle of a long and painful adjustment which was completely predictable and necessary.

[lonestar2000]

The Midwest areas (Texas, etc.) will most doubtedly return to fundamentals well before 2017, but places such as California, Florida, Vegas, etc. that had the largest price runups will take a very long time to reach equilibrium.

I agree with Thornberg that we’re in the middle of a long and painful adjustment which was completely predictable and necessary.

[Author]

Posts