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June 1, 2009 at 5:55 PM #409365June 1, 2009 at 6:25 PM #408686SDEngineerParticipant
[quote=sobmaz]I keep hearing that line.
Need I point out that in San Diego during the early 80’s the average home price reflected 3 to 4 times annual income? So yes, when rates went up, prices stagnated rather than declined. Stagnation during inflation has the net affect of decreasing the REAL price.
Now, in North Park for example, the average house is anywhere between 7 and 10 times average wages.
It all seems pretty simple, never before have we had housing prices so out of whack. What happened in the past cannot be a predictor of the future.
Pretty simple if you ask me, interest rates will have a far far more drasitic effect compared to any other time. [/quote]
Depends on the area, of course – some places have felt significantly less pain than others, but, at least according to research done on this site by Rich (Mr. Pigg himself), prices are no longer fundamentally out of alignment. See here:
and you’ll note on the first chart that the Case Shiller median divided by per capita income is now about where it was in ’84 – well into the decline curve and fairly close to the historical bottoms.
BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.
June 1, 2009 at 6:25 PM #408926SDEngineerParticipant[quote=sobmaz]I keep hearing that line.
Need I point out that in San Diego during the early 80’s the average home price reflected 3 to 4 times annual income? So yes, when rates went up, prices stagnated rather than declined. Stagnation during inflation has the net affect of decreasing the REAL price.
Now, in North Park for example, the average house is anywhere between 7 and 10 times average wages.
It all seems pretty simple, never before have we had housing prices so out of whack. What happened in the past cannot be a predictor of the future.
Pretty simple if you ask me, interest rates will have a far far more drasitic effect compared to any other time. [/quote]
Depends on the area, of course – some places have felt significantly less pain than others, but, at least according to research done on this site by Rich (Mr. Pigg himself), prices are no longer fundamentally out of alignment. See here:
and you’ll note on the first chart that the Case Shiller median divided by per capita income is now about where it was in ’84 – well into the decline curve and fairly close to the historical bottoms.
BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.
June 1, 2009 at 6:25 PM #409172SDEngineerParticipant[quote=sobmaz]I keep hearing that line.
Need I point out that in San Diego during the early 80’s the average home price reflected 3 to 4 times annual income? So yes, when rates went up, prices stagnated rather than declined. Stagnation during inflation has the net affect of decreasing the REAL price.
Now, in North Park for example, the average house is anywhere between 7 and 10 times average wages.
It all seems pretty simple, never before have we had housing prices so out of whack. What happened in the past cannot be a predictor of the future.
Pretty simple if you ask me, interest rates will have a far far more drasitic effect compared to any other time. [/quote]
Depends on the area, of course – some places have felt significantly less pain than others, but, at least according to research done on this site by Rich (Mr. Pigg himself), prices are no longer fundamentally out of alignment. See here:
and you’ll note on the first chart that the Case Shiller median divided by per capita income is now about where it was in ’84 – well into the decline curve and fairly close to the historical bottoms.
BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.
June 1, 2009 at 6:25 PM #409234SDEngineerParticipant[quote=sobmaz]I keep hearing that line.
Need I point out that in San Diego during the early 80’s the average home price reflected 3 to 4 times annual income? So yes, when rates went up, prices stagnated rather than declined. Stagnation during inflation has the net affect of decreasing the REAL price.
Now, in North Park for example, the average house is anywhere between 7 and 10 times average wages.
It all seems pretty simple, never before have we had housing prices so out of whack. What happened in the past cannot be a predictor of the future.
Pretty simple if you ask me, interest rates will have a far far more drasitic effect compared to any other time. [/quote]
Depends on the area, of course – some places have felt significantly less pain than others, but, at least according to research done on this site by Rich (Mr. Pigg himself), prices are no longer fundamentally out of alignment. See here:
and you’ll note on the first chart that the Case Shiller median divided by per capita income is now about where it was in ’84 – well into the decline curve and fairly close to the historical bottoms.
BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.
June 1, 2009 at 6:25 PM #409385SDEngineerParticipant[quote=sobmaz]I keep hearing that line.
Need I point out that in San Diego during the early 80’s the average home price reflected 3 to 4 times annual income? So yes, when rates went up, prices stagnated rather than declined. Stagnation during inflation has the net affect of decreasing the REAL price.
Now, in North Park for example, the average house is anywhere between 7 and 10 times average wages.
It all seems pretty simple, never before have we had housing prices so out of whack. What happened in the past cannot be a predictor of the future.
Pretty simple if you ask me, interest rates will have a far far more drasitic effect compared to any other time. [/quote]
Depends on the area, of course – some places have felt significantly less pain than others, but, at least according to research done on this site by Rich (Mr. Pigg himself), prices are no longer fundamentally out of alignment. See here:
and you’ll note on the first chart that the Case Shiller median divided by per capita income is now about where it was in ’84 – well into the decline curve and fairly close to the historical bottoms.
BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.
June 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM #408710patientrenterParticipant[quote=SDEngineer] ….BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.[/quote]
SDE, I’d say that median price / median household income is a better measure of affordability over long periods. It makes no sense to compare the per capita ratio in the 1950’s when almost all households had only one income to the per capita ratio today when households have mostly two incomes. I’d be interested to see a long history of the household ratio, and the ratio in 1997 would definitely be less than 6.75, the recent low point of the SD per capita measure. Even that would be higher, I’d guess, than the ratio in the 1960’s and earlier.
June 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM #408951patientrenterParticipant[quote=SDEngineer] ….BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.[/quote]
SDE, I’d say that median price / median household income is a better measure of affordability over long periods. It makes no sense to compare the per capita ratio in the 1950’s when almost all households had only one income to the per capita ratio today when households have mostly two incomes. I’d be interested to see a long history of the household ratio, and the ratio in 1997 would definitely be less than 6.75, the recent low point of the SD per capita measure. Even that would be higher, I’d guess, than the ratio in the 1960’s and earlier.
June 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM #409197patientrenterParticipant[quote=SDEngineer] ….BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.[/quote]
SDE, I’d say that median price / median household income is a better measure of affordability over long periods. It makes no sense to compare the per capita ratio in the 1950’s when almost all households had only one income to the per capita ratio today when households have mostly two incomes. I’d be interested to see a long history of the household ratio, and the ratio in 1997 would definitely be less than 6.75, the recent low point of the SD per capita measure. Even that would be higher, I’d guess, than the ratio in the 1960’s and earlier.
June 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM #409259patientrenterParticipant[quote=SDEngineer] ….BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.[/quote]
SDE, I’d say that median price / median household income is a better measure of affordability over long periods. It makes no sense to compare the per capita ratio in the 1950’s when almost all households had only one income to the per capita ratio today when households have mostly two incomes. I’d be interested to see a long history of the household ratio, and the ratio in 1997 would definitely be less than 6.75, the recent low point of the SD per capita measure. Even that would be higher, I’d guess, than the ratio in the 1960’s and earlier.
June 1, 2009 at 6:58 PM #409410patientrenterParticipant[quote=SDEngineer] ….BTW, median prices have never been as low as 3-4x individual incomes in San Diego – about the lowest they get is about 6.5x individual, or about 4x household income. There really is a “sunshine tax”, and it’s pretty well historically documented.[/quote]
SDE, I’d say that median price / median household income is a better measure of affordability over long periods. It makes no sense to compare the per capita ratio in the 1950’s when almost all households had only one income to the per capita ratio today when households have mostly two incomes. I’d be interested to see a long history of the household ratio, and the ratio in 1997 would definitely be less than 6.75, the recent low point of the SD per capita measure. Even that would be higher, I’d guess, than the ratio in the 1960’s and earlier.
June 1, 2009 at 8:24 PM #408784raty4RParticipantI’m the opposite of most of you. Had a Wamu card 7.99% 12,000 limit balance at ~11,500. Wamu gets bought by Chase. My Wamu payment was always due on the 1/2/or 3rd of the month. I make my payment on the 1st. Chase changes my due date to the 28th?? so I’m “late” they jack up my rates to 20 something percent. I Go to BofA get a 0% CC(1 year) and transfer the balance :). Oh yah about 3 months ago BofA gave me a pesonal equity line for 20,000 @12.99%.
About the mortgage rates… geithner and that other person went to China, wonder what they’re taking about? “please buy more at lower rates.. we’ll give you x if you do. I expect short term for the rates to stabilize, if not go lower. Gotta keep the hope alive you know.June 1, 2009 at 8:24 PM #409026raty4RParticipantI’m the opposite of most of you. Had a Wamu card 7.99% 12,000 limit balance at ~11,500. Wamu gets bought by Chase. My Wamu payment was always due on the 1/2/or 3rd of the month. I make my payment on the 1st. Chase changes my due date to the 28th?? so I’m “late” they jack up my rates to 20 something percent. I Go to BofA get a 0% CC(1 year) and transfer the balance :). Oh yah about 3 months ago BofA gave me a pesonal equity line for 20,000 @12.99%.
About the mortgage rates… geithner and that other person went to China, wonder what they’re taking about? “please buy more at lower rates.. we’ll give you x if you do. I expect short term for the rates to stabilize, if not go lower. Gotta keep the hope alive you know.June 1, 2009 at 8:24 PM #409272raty4RParticipantI’m the opposite of most of you. Had a Wamu card 7.99% 12,000 limit balance at ~11,500. Wamu gets bought by Chase. My Wamu payment was always due on the 1/2/or 3rd of the month. I make my payment on the 1st. Chase changes my due date to the 28th?? so I’m “late” they jack up my rates to 20 something percent. I Go to BofA get a 0% CC(1 year) and transfer the balance :). Oh yah about 3 months ago BofA gave me a pesonal equity line for 20,000 @12.99%.
About the mortgage rates… geithner and that other person went to China, wonder what they’re taking about? “please buy more at lower rates.. we’ll give you x if you do. I expect short term for the rates to stabilize, if not go lower. Gotta keep the hope alive you know.June 1, 2009 at 8:24 PM #409334raty4RParticipantI’m the opposite of most of you. Had a Wamu card 7.99% 12,000 limit balance at ~11,500. Wamu gets bought by Chase. My Wamu payment was always due on the 1/2/or 3rd of the month. I make my payment on the 1st. Chase changes my due date to the 28th?? so I’m “late” they jack up my rates to 20 something percent. I Go to BofA get a 0% CC(1 year) and transfer the balance :). Oh yah about 3 months ago BofA gave me a pesonal equity line for 20,000 @12.99%.
About the mortgage rates… geithner and that other person went to China, wonder what they’re taking about? “please buy more at lower rates.. we’ll give you x if you do. I expect short term for the rates to stabilize, if not go lower. Gotta keep the hope alive you know. -
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