- This topic has 140 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 16 years ago by HLS.
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December 12, 2008 at 3:05 PM #315405December 12, 2008 at 4:10 PM #314957HLSParticipant
Great question, it comes up often.
The biggest problem is documenting it..
If people pay by check, every month and it can be documented, I think it is possible with FHA as border income…but I think that it must be reported as income on tax returns.I HATE FHA LOANS and the fees and the guidelines, so I don’t keep up with them…
Lotsa people are getting screwed right now with FHA loans,, they could become the subprime mess of the future, leading to more foreclosures.
Lotsa mortgage ppl are pushing buyers into FHA loans,,without explaining better options to the buyers.. shame on them.
FNMA won’t accept it. .HLS
December 12, 2008 at 4:10 PM #315314HLSParticipantGreat question, it comes up often.
The biggest problem is documenting it..
If people pay by check, every month and it can be documented, I think it is possible with FHA as border income…but I think that it must be reported as income on tax returns.I HATE FHA LOANS and the fees and the guidelines, so I don’t keep up with them…
Lotsa people are getting screwed right now with FHA loans,, they could become the subprime mess of the future, leading to more foreclosures.
Lotsa mortgage ppl are pushing buyers into FHA loans,,without explaining better options to the buyers.. shame on them.
FNMA won’t accept it. .HLS
December 12, 2008 at 4:10 PM #315347HLSParticipantGreat question, it comes up often.
The biggest problem is documenting it..
If people pay by check, every month and it can be documented, I think it is possible with FHA as border income…but I think that it must be reported as income on tax returns.I HATE FHA LOANS and the fees and the guidelines, so I don’t keep up with them…
Lotsa people are getting screwed right now with FHA loans,, they could become the subprime mess of the future, leading to more foreclosures.
Lotsa mortgage ppl are pushing buyers into FHA loans,,without explaining better options to the buyers.. shame on them.
FNMA won’t accept it. .HLS
December 12, 2008 at 4:10 PM #315369HLSParticipantGreat question, it comes up often.
The biggest problem is documenting it..
If people pay by check, every month and it can be documented, I think it is possible with FHA as border income…but I think that it must be reported as income on tax returns.I HATE FHA LOANS and the fees and the guidelines, so I don’t keep up with them…
Lotsa people are getting screwed right now with FHA loans,, they could become the subprime mess of the future, leading to more foreclosures.
Lotsa mortgage ppl are pushing buyers into FHA loans,,without explaining better options to the buyers.. shame on them.
FNMA won’t accept it. .HLS
December 12, 2008 at 4:10 PM #315440HLSParticipantGreat question, it comes up often.
The biggest problem is documenting it..
If people pay by check, every month and it can be documented, I think it is possible with FHA as border income…but I think that it must be reported as income on tax returns.I HATE FHA LOANS and the fees and the guidelines, so I don’t keep up with them…
Lotsa people are getting screwed right now with FHA loans,, they could become the subprime mess of the future, leading to more foreclosures.
Lotsa mortgage ppl are pushing buyers into FHA loans,,without explaining better options to the buyers.. shame on them.
FNMA won’t accept it. .HLS
December 12, 2008 at 4:11 PM #314962peterbParticipantWe’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down. Prices are coming down on just about everything. People are losing jobs. All this means less US$ running around.The US$ gaining strength. It’s in higher demand. Banks make loans. It’s a big part of their business structure. The demand for mortgages should be declining. Rates tend to go up in a growth cycle and down in a bust.There’s far less demand for debt as economies contract. The spread is very large right now. But as the banks see that getting return will be more difficult, they will have to lower rates. And inflation wont be the big concern any longer. Risk needs to be mitigated since defaults are now the big concern. But this can be done with higher down payments and more careful documentation work.
ECRI is a respected think tank of economic analysis. They track cost and growth. Look them up. Very conservative organization. They are about to call deflation. About 3 months late in my estimation, but they are extremely careful about this sort of thing as they have a big reputation to protect.
what do I know. I just report what I’m seeing.December 12, 2008 at 4:11 PM #315318peterbParticipantWe’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down. Prices are coming down on just about everything. People are losing jobs. All this means less US$ running around.The US$ gaining strength. It’s in higher demand. Banks make loans. It’s a big part of their business structure. The demand for mortgages should be declining. Rates tend to go up in a growth cycle and down in a bust.There’s far less demand for debt as economies contract. The spread is very large right now. But as the banks see that getting return will be more difficult, they will have to lower rates. And inflation wont be the big concern any longer. Risk needs to be mitigated since defaults are now the big concern. But this can be done with higher down payments and more careful documentation work.
ECRI is a respected think tank of economic analysis. They track cost and growth. Look them up. Very conservative organization. They are about to call deflation. About 3 months late in my estimation, but they are extremely careful about this sort of thing as they have a big reputation to protect.
what do I know. I just report what I’m seeing.December 12, 2008 at 4:11 PM #315352peterbParticipantWe’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down. Prices are coming down on just about everything. People are losing jobs. All this means less US$ running around.The US$ gaining strength. It’s in higher demand. Banks make loans. It’s a big part of their business structure. The demand for mortgages should be declining. Rates tend to go up in a growth cycle and down in a bust.There’s far less demand for debt as economies contract. The spread is very large right now. But as the banks see that getting return will be more difficult, they will have to lower rates. And inflation wont be the big concern any longer. Risk needs to be mitigated since defaults are now the big concern. But this can be done with higher down payments and more careful documentation work.
ECRI is a respected think tank of economic analysis. They track cost and growth. Look them up. Very conservative organization. They are about to call deflation. About 3 months late in my estimation, but they are extremely careful about this sort of thing as they have a big reputation to protect.
what do I know. I just report what I’m seeing.December 12, 2008 at 4:11 PM #315374peterbParticipantWe’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down. Prices are coming down on just about everything. People are losing jobs. All this means less US$ running around.The US$ gaining strength. It’s in higher demand. Banks make loans. It’s a big part of their business structure. The demand for mortgages should be declining. Rates tend to go up in a growth cycle and down in a bust.There’s far less demand for debt as economies contract. The spread is very large right now. But as the banks see that getting return will be more difficult, they will have to lower rates. And inflation wont be the big concern any longer. Risk needs to be mitigated since defaults are now the big concern. But this can be done with higher down payments and more careful documentation work.
ECRI is a respected think tank of economic analysis. They track cost and growth. Look them up. Very conservative organization. They are about to call deflation. About 3 months late in my estimation, but they are extremely careful about this sort of thing as they have a big reputation to protect.
what do I know. I just report what I’m seeing.December 12, 2008 at 4:11 PM #315445peterbParticipantWe’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down. Prices are coming down on just about everything. People are losing jobs. All this means less US$ running around.The US$ gaining strength. It’s in higher demand. Banks make loans. It’s a big part of their business structure. The demand for mortgages should be declining. Rates tend to go up in a growth cycle and down in a bust.There’s far less demand for debt as economies contract. The spread is very large right now. But as the banks see that getting return will be more difficult, they will have to lower rates. And inflation wont be the big concern any longer. Risk needs to be mitigated since defaults are now the big concern. But this can be done with higher down payments and more careful documentation work.
ECRI is a respected think tank of economic analysis. They track cost and growth. Look them up. Very conservative organization. They are about to call deflation. About 3 months late in my estimation, but they are extremely careful about this sort of thing as they have a big reputation to protect.
what do I know. I just report what I’m seeing.December 12, 2008 at 4:25 PM #314972EugeneParticipant[quote]We’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down.[/quote]
I prefer the term “panic”. There is a lot of irrational fear in the markets. Mining companies like Rio and Freeport-McMoran trading below book. Blue-chip industrials like GE dipping into single digit P/E’s. Houses selling below rent and replacement value, purely because people are afraid to buy. Fear feeds on itself. We’re in a massive fear cycle.
But people don’t change easily. They might cut down on spending temporarily because their 401k’s drop 20% in one month. But that does not suddenly make them frugal in the long run. 6 months later, a stock-market rally might make their portfolios rise 20% and they will go on a shopping spree. People don’t cancel decisions to buy new cars because the economy is bad – they merely delay them. Everyone still needs to drive to work. A dip in new car sales in 2008 will be matched by a spike above the trendline in 2009 or 2010. If GM and Chrysler aren’t around to provide the supply of new cars, Toyota and Honda will make a killing – and so will everyone who buys TM and HMC today, when the night seems darkest.
December 12, 2008 at 4:25 PM #315328EugeneParticipant[quote]We’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down.[/quote]
I prefer the term “panic”. There is a lot of irrational fear in the markets. Mining companies like Rio and Freeport-McMoran trading below book. Blue-chip industrials like GE dipping into single digit P/E’s. Houses selling below rent and replacement value, purely because people are afraid to buy. Fear feeds on itself. We’re in a massive fear cycle.
But people don’t change easily. They might cut down on spending temporarily because their 401k’s drop 20% in one month. But that does not suddenly make them frugal in the long run. 6 months later, a stock-market rally might make their portfolios rise 20% and they will go on a shopping spree. People don’t cancel decisions to buy new cars because the economy is bad – they merely delay them. Everyone still needs to drive to work. A dip in new car sales in 2008 will be matched by a spike above the trendline in 2009 or 2010. If GM and Chrysler aren’t around to provide the supply of new cars, Toyota and Honda will make a killing – and so will everyone who buys TM and HMC today, when the night seems darkest.
December 12, 2008 at 4:25 PM #315362EugeneParticipant[quote]We’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down.[/quote]
I prefer the term “panic”. There is a lot of irrational fear in the markets. Mining companies like Rio and Freeport-McMoran trading below book. Blue-chip industrials like GE dipping into single digit P/E’s. Houses selling below rent and replacement value, purely because people are afraid to buy. Fear feeds on itself. We’re in a massive fear cycle.
But people don’t change easily. They might cut down on spending temporarily because their 401k’s drop 20% in one month. But that does not suddenly make them frugal in the long run. 6 months later, a stock-market rally might make their portfolios rise 20% and they will go on a shopping spree. People don’t cancel decisions to buy new cars because the economy is bad – they merely delay them. Everyone still needs to drive to work. A dip in new car sales in 2008 will be matched by a spike above the trendline in 2009 or 2010. If GM and Chrysler aren’t around to provide the supply of new cars, Toyota and Honda will make a killing – and so will everyone who buys TM and HMC today, when the night seems darkest.
December 12, 2008 at 4:25 PM #315384EugeneParticipant[quote]We’re in a massive deflationary cycle right now. $30T lost in the markets, $3T lost in housing equity, $50T or more in CDS,etc…. I count credit as part of the money supply. So we’ve lost a huge amount of it in the last year. Look around. Commodities down about 75% accross the board. Homes around the country are about 25% down.[/quote]
I prefer the term “panic”. There is a lot of irrational fear in the markets. Mining companies like Rio and Freeport-McMoran trading below book. Blue-chip industrials like GE dipping into single digit P/E’s. Houses selling below rent and replacement value, purely because people are afraid to buy. Fear feeds on itself. We’re in a massive fear cycle.
But people don’t change easily. They might cut down on spending temporarily because their 401k’s drop 20% in one month. But that does not suddenly make them frugal in the long run. 6 months later, a stock-market rally might make their portfolios rise 20% and they will go on a shopping spree. People don’t cancel decisions to buy new cars because the economy is bad – they merely delay them. Everyone still needs to drive to work. A dip in new car sales in 2008 will be matched by a spike above the trendline in 2009 or 2010. If GM and Chrysler aren’t around to provide the supply of new cars, Toyota and Honda will make a killing – and so will everyone who buys TM and HMC today, when the night seems darkest.
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