Rancho Bernardo/4S unofficial Monitor

[stansd]

Every day, I get listings in the Rancho Bernardo/4S area of single family homes and condos under 600K. I’ve noticed a lot of them lately are price reductions rather than new listings. I decided to count them up for the last 30 days:

7 New listings (1 REO, 1 Short Sale)
30 Price Reductions

To see it this way really surprised me. I don’t know what the normal ratio of price reductions to new listings is, but surely it can’t be greater than 4:1. Amount of the Reductions are listed below with an average of 30,000, and a median of 25,000 (Roughly 5%).

In my immediate neighborhood, there are 4 listings all of which have been sitting for over 60 days. I think the next few months of case shiller data are really going to start to show the downtrend.

Reduction Amounts
38,000
50,000
25,000
35,000
25,000
25,000
10,000
50,000
30,000
60,000
30,000
55,000
25,000
25,000
13,000
30,000
13,000
25,000
10,000
30,000
30,000
30,000
12,500
20,000
60,000
20,000
65,000
18,000
25,000
15,000

Stan

[ocrenter]

Check out this guy that thought he got a great bargain buying a REO in June, purchase price was $597,000 for a 1,931 sqft detached condo

Now check this one out, just a 3-5 minutes’ walk away:

16823 SAINTSBURY GLEN, SD – Rancho Bernardo, CA 92127
–1,858 sqft detached condo
–asking price: $500,000.

when I featured the story a same exact model came on the market for $550,000. that one is still on sale with no takers. now we have this.

that’s $100,000 equity loss within 3 months.

don’t catch that falling knife folks!!

[temeculaguy]

Good work Stan, the pain train seems to be just pulling into 4-S, right on schedule I might add. 5% average reduction in 3 months is a nice start but I bet that all these didn’t get snapped up once they lowered their price. This should be the start of the snowball effect, falling prices can entice some but will also send others to the sidelines, banks and builders will become agressive to get ahead of the falling curve, causing more foreclosures because people will not be able to get the appraisal needed to refi, this story will start to get real interesting from here on it, keep us posted, your data is months ahead of the media.

[SD Realtor]

Good post. The resale activity in 4S REALLY needs to come to grips with reality. It is only a matter of time.

I took a nice mountain bike ride up to the top of Black Mountain today. (ps this is a very fun ride down and some great single track on the north side) Besides being horribly out of shape it is interesting to take a look at 4S, specially all of the new grading to the south. Anyways it is only a matter of time before it goes down.

SD Realtor

[stansd]

Update

20 New listings
30 price reductions

Average reduction 41,000, median reduction 43,000.

In my immediate neighborhood, there are now 5 listings, 4 of which have been on the market for at least 90 days.

I remain convinced that Case Shiller is really going to start to dip in the next couple of months.

Reduction Amounts:
55,000
30,000
25,000
30,000
60,000
7,000
10,000
30,000
20,000
50,000
30,000
50,000
50,000
20,000
10,000
40,000
50,000
50,000
55,000
52,000
25,000
45,000
50,000
20,000
45,000
150,000
60,000
30,000
45,000
25,000

[bsrsharma]

Stan,

Do you have more info on the 150K drop?

Does the list contain repeated price drops? If so, it will be interesting to see any 100K drops. I have a hunch that 100K+ drop in 30- days may indicate desperation (the Wile E Coyote moment).

[stansd]

Detail on the 150K below…it’s gone pending…was initially overpriced, new listing was priced to sell for sure.

List does contain repeated drops, so it does overstate some…even with that caveat, I continue to be amazed at how many drops versus listings there are.

SF Detached Status: Pending LP: $525,000 – $575,876 REF #: 6
MLS #: 076057362 OLP: $700,876
Media: 13 – V.T.
Address: 17268 BERNARDO OAKS DR. Close of Escrow:
Subdivision: Greens
City: San Diego Zip : 92128-
Cross Street: Rancho Bernardo Community: RANCHO BERNARDO
Map Code: 1170B2 MT: 80 AMT: 80 LD: 7/17/2007
Directions To Property: Rancho Bernardo Rd;North on Bernardo Oaks Dr.

General Information

Bedrooms: 3 View: Golf Course
Optional BR: Exterior: Wood/Stucco
Baths: 2 Floors: Slab
Est SqFt: 2,083 Heat: Forced Air
Year Built: 1964 Cooling: Central Forced Air
Stories: 1 Story Pool: Community
Lot SqFt: 8200 Lot Size: Up to & Inc .25 Acres
Source of SqFt: Assessor Record Sewer: Sewer Connected
Ownership: Fee Simple School District: PUSD
Roof: Tile Age Restriction: N/K
Acres: 0.1882 Water: Meter on Property
Zoning: R1 Topography: Level
APN: 273-220-08-00 Pets: Yes
Fireplace: FP in Living Room

Remarks

Seller will entertain offers between $525,000-$575,876. Fantastic golf course location w/ beautiful views & gorgeous new upgrades throughout from floor to ceiling including travertine flooring, granite & tumbled stone counters, maple cabinets, decorator paint, new carpet & more! Best value in the neighborhood!

Rooms Information

Living Room: 22×14 Dining Room: 17×12 Family Room: 26×18 Kitchen: 13×9 Extra Room: –
Master Bed: 15×13 Bedroom 2: 14×12 Bedroom 3: 14×10 Bedroom 4: – Bedroom 5: –

Additional Features

Add Land Use: N/K Parking: 2 Car Garage
Boat Facilities: N/K Security: N/K
Guest House: N/K Patio: Covered, Stone/Tile
Frontage: Golf Course Spa: Community
Laundry: Garage Telecom: Cable
Irrigation: Sprinklers
Complex Features: N/K
Equipment: Dishwasher, Disposal, Garage Door Opener, Microwave, Range/Oven

Assessments and Fees

Assessments: School, Other/Remarks Mello-Roos: 0/N/K
H.O. Fee: 0/N/K HOF Includes: N/K
Other Fee: 348/Annual Type of OF: Club Fees

Stan

[bsrsharma]

Per Zillow, this was last sold in June 2004 for $610K. So, the seller is taking a haircut of 35K-85K + selling costs. Not a tragedy, but there is probably some interesting story.

[stansd]

I’m wondering, though if it sold for more than asking…that’s a really cheap price for that size in that area. Will be interesting to see.

Stan

[sdrealtor]

Stan,
I dont think a 4 : 1 ratio of price changes to new listings is unusual. In fact I think it is a good sign from a market stability point. It indicates relatively fewer new listings coming online while sellers of homes on the market are taking steps to find what the current fair market value of their house is.

[flyer]

Stan/sdrealtor

Thanks for this post. We want to move to 4S. (We’re currently in our AZ home waiting for the right time to buy back in San Diego after selling in CV in 2005.)

We’d like to buy a new home, but the builders are still very “sticky” with pricing right now. In fact, some of the builders seem to be raising prices! Some are only releasing a few homes at a time, and apparently, they have buyers.

Any thoughts on when new 3000SF homes there might drop to the $550-650K range??

[stansd]

SDR,

I don’t think it’s unusual in this market, but in a market where prices are not in a freefall, would you expect anything like that? I just saw it as an indication that prices are working their way down.

on the 3,000 ft house for those prices question…that’s a lot of depreciation…I’m not sure I see that in the cards, but I’m not as bearish as some.

I know several people who own those types of houses…plenty of money there, and those folks don’t even look elsewhere when they work in RB.

Stan

[bsrsharma]

I think the 417K “Brick Wall” effect might also be influencing the price drops. There is probably a strong attractor at the 521K price point for many homes in RB.

[Anonymous]

Future neighborhoods at 4S… Anybody knows the status of the land that is north of Pienza and Evergreen? It seems the land has already been graded, but last time I checked no builder had signed up to build on that land.

[Tuba]

John Laing looks like they might be getting close to your asking price. You can always give them an offer, we are getting close to most builders 4th qtr year end and they need to make those numbers.

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-076077593-10448_Richard_Rd_San_Diego_CA_92127

[Author]

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