“INVESTORS” who haven’t learned their lessons?

[carlsbadworker]

[quote=peterb]Theories should have some analytical basis as support. Consider the logic, place your bets. History may not exactly repeat itself, but it sure does tend to rhyme.
Here’s a couple that I find compelling:

http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/

http://www.frbsf.org/publications/economics/letter/2009/el2009-16.pdf%5B/quote%5D

I’m missing your point. Some of the links explicitly says that in the low-cost area the pain training has passed through already because it was largely subprime. If you are talking about coastal area, I think we all agree there’re a lot rooms for price to drop.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]

It really can be quite simple.

Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]

It really can be quite simple.

Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]

It really can be quite simple.

Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]

It really can be quite simple.

Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

[quote=scaredycat]it’s not simple. it’s pretty complex. it’s impossible to predict any market short term. we may have some degree of confidence of where a market is going, but the way it gets there can be very surprising and the timing can be impossible to pin down. i’d say even if you knwo witha high degree of confidence that the general trajectory is down, you can be very surprised at the circuitous path it takes to get there. or as the late Kurt vonegut said, I think more or less, “Sometimes you ahve to go a very long ways out of your way to go a short ways correctly”.[/quote]

It really can be quite simple.

Rich’s original thesis for Piggington was that homes were overpriced by fundamental measures and therefore the prices were unsustainable. Simple and True.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I have to point something out here. The comments about people in here being ahead of the curve is inaccurate. There is very much of an overall extreme herd mentality in here. Anyone doing something they don’t agree with is an idiot. Corrections always over correct ( this statement clearly is made by people with no understanding of statistics ).

I always wonder what it is that makes someone who rents because they don’t have enough money to be a 500k house smarter than someone who has made millions of dollars investing. There have been so many in here who fit this critiquing wealthy investors for what they do. This is like a 36 handicap golfer criticizing Tiger Woods.

I have no idea if people investing in RE here and now are timing this right, I think they are pretty close in terms of price maybe not in time. I do know that the majority of the people here will miss the opportunity to buy at good levels by having the day trader mentality with all of this.

This continues to be a good place to fade the consensus in spite of several exceptions of very sharp people in here. The overall sentiment in here is pretty typical of the US as a whole in my view and that is how I use it, to fade it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I have to point something out here. The comments about people in here being ahead of the curve is inaccurate. There is very much of an overall extreme herd mentality in here. Anyone doing something they don’t agree with is an idiot. Corrections always over correct ( this statement clearly is made by people with no understanding of statistics ).

I always wonder what it is that makes someone who rents because they don’t have enough money to be a 500k house smarter than someone who has made millions of dollars investing. There have been so many in here who fit this critiquing wealthy investors for what they do. This is like a 36 handicap golfer criticizing Tiger Woods.

I have no idea if people investing in RE here and now are timing this right, I think they are pretty close in terms of price maybe not in time. I do know that the majority of the people here will miss the opportunity to buy at good levels by having the day trader mentality with all of this.

This continues to be a good place to fade the consensus in spite of several exceptions of very sharp people in here. The overall sentiment in here is pretty typical of the US as a whole in my view and that is how I use it, to fade it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I have to point something out here. The comments about people in here being ahead of the curve is inaccurate. There is very much of an overall extreme herd mentality in here. Anyone doing something they don’t agree with is an idiot. Corrections always over correct ( this statement clearly is made by people with no understanding of statistics ).

I always wonder what it is that makes someone who rents because they don’t have enough money to be a 500k house smarter than someone who has made millions of dollars investing. There have been so many in here who fit this critiquing wealthy investors for what they do. This is like a 36 handicap golfer criticizing Tiger Woods.

I have no idea if people investing in RE here and now are timing this right, I think they are pretty close in terms of price maybe not in time. I do know that the majority of the people here will miss the opportunity to buy at good levels by having the day trader mentality with all of this.

This continues to be a good place to fade the consensus in spite of several exceptions of very sharp people in here. The overall sentiment in here is pretty typical of the US as a whole in my view and that is how I use it, to fade it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I have to point something out here. The comments about people in here being ahead of the curve is inaccurate. There is very much of an overall extreme herd mentality in here. Anyone doing something they don’t agree with is an idiot. Corrections always over correct ( this statement clearly is made by people with no understanding of statistics ).

I always wonder what it is that makes someone who rents because they don’t have enough money to be a 500k house smarter than someone who has made millions of dollars investing. There have been so many in here who fit this critiquing wealthy investors for what they do. This is like a 36 handicap golfer criticizing Tiger Woods.

I have no idea if people investing in RE here and now are timing this right, I think they are pretty close in terms of price maybe not in time. I do know that the majority of the people here will miss the opportunity to buy at good levels by having the day trader mentality with all of this.

This continues to be a good place to fade the consensus in spite of several exceptions of very sharp people in here. The overall sentiment in here is pretty typical of the US as a whole in my view and that is how I use it, to fade it.

[Chris Scoreboard Johnston]

I have to point something out here. The comments about people in here being ahead of the curve is inaccurate. There is very much of an overall extreme herd mentality in here. Anyone doing something they don’t agree with is an idiot. Corrections always over correct ( this statement clearly is made by people with no understanding of statistics ).

I always wonder what it is that makes someone who rents because they don’t have enough money to be a 500k house smarter than someone who has made millions of dollars investing. There have been so many in here who fit this critiquing wealthy investors for what they do. This is like a 36 handicap golfer criticizing Tiger Woods.

I have no idea if people investing in RE here and now are timing this right, I think they are pretty close in terms of price maybe not in time. I do know that the majority of the people here will miss the opportunity to buy at good levels by having the day trader mentality with all of this.

This continues to be a good place to fade the consensus in spite of several exceptions of very sharp people in here. The overall sentiment in here is pretty typical of the US as a whole in my view and that is how I use it, to fade it.

[peterb]

I’m not disagreeing that higher priced property is in for a big drop. But, my point is to look at the macro picture and extrapolate from the situation.It’s not a stretch to go much further. Odds of any prices increasing are bad for quite a while. So they go sideways or down. Not an investment I want to be in on.

CA unemployment at 11.3% and growing. Worst in post WII history. Next stop 1930’s?
The state of CA is about to lay-off thousands of employees. That may have some downward pressure on all levels of housing as well?

[peterb]

I’m not disagreeing that higher priced property is in for a big drop. But, my point is to look at the macro picture and extrapolate from the situation.It’s not a stretch to go much further. Odds of any prices increasing are bad for quite a while. So they go sideways or down. Not an investment I want to be in on.

CA unemployment at 11.3% and growing. Worst in post WII history. Next stop 1930’s?
The state of CA is about to lay-off thousands of employees. That may have some downward pressure on all levels of housing as well?

[peterb]

I’m not disagreeing that higher priced property is in for a big drop. But, my point is to look at the macro picture and extrapolate from the situation.It’s not a stretch to go much further. Odds of any prices increasing are bad for quite a while. So they go sideways or down. Not an investment I want to be in on.

CA unemployment at 11.3% and growing. Worst in post WII history. Next stop 1930’s?
The state of CA is about to lay-off thousands of employees. That may have some downward pressure on all levels of housing as well?

[peterb]

I’m not disagreeing that higher priced property is in for a big drop. But, my point is to look at the macro picture and extrapolate from the situation.It’s not a stretch to go much further. Odds of any prices increasing are bad for quite a while. So they go sideways or down. Not an investment I want to be in on.

CA unemployment at 11.3% and growing. Worst in post WII history. Next stop 1930’s?
The state of CA is about to lay-off thousands of employees. That may have some downward pressure on all levels of housing as well?

[Author]

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