Price per square foot

[sdrealtor]

My prediction has never changed since Day 1 when I arrived here over 2 years ago. My prediction was 30% off the peak (+/- a couple %) with a bottom in 2010 or 2011.

I always think of things in terms of my own home which is pretty representative of the overall market here. I believe it is down roughly 20% so far. I see another 15 to 20% from where we are today. Measuring of the peak numbers I see another 10 to 13% down from here.

The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.

You said that you see the nice 4BR 2 to 3K homes in the area going into the 400 to 500K range and I dont see that. Those homes were 400K+ in the late 90’s and I have trouble seeing them under 600K let alone 500K.

When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).

I know alot of people looking for homes in the most desireable comunities here that are the real deal in terms of income and assets. If I know 10 personally there has got to be at least another 90 that I dont know and thats being conservative. There are several million folks in SD county and I think folks tend to minimize how many are doing fine and will continue to do so. I think they also underestimate the strength of the hands that many of these homes around here are in. When prices are at the bottom I have always contended that it will be very difficult to find the house you want. There will be alot more people waiting to buy those homes then there are people forced to sell them.

[Ren]

[quote=sdrealtor]
The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.
[/quote]
I have no doubt the difference between a 300k and 400k house was huge. I’m not saying that a 300k house had the same gain or will eventually have the same loss as a 400k house. I only use the ranges because it can be more visual than percentages.

Nevermind, let’s just move on and bump this in a few years…

[Ren]

[quote=sdrealtor]
The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.
[/quote]
I have no doubt the difference between a 300k and 400k house was huge. I’m not saying that a 300k house had the same gain or will eventually have the same loss as a 400k house. I only use the ranges because it can be more visual than percentages.

Nevermind, let’s just move on and bump this in a few years…

[Ren]

[quote=sdrealtor]
The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.
[/quote]
I have no doubt the difference between a 300k and 400k house was huge. I’m not saying that a 300k house had the same gain or will eventually have the same loss as a 400k house. I only use the ranges because it can be more visual than percentages.

Nevermind, let’s just move on and bump this in a few years…

[Ren]

[quote=sdrealtor]
The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.
[/quote]
I have no doubt the difference between a 300k and 400k house was huge. I’m not saying that a 300k house had the same gain or will eventually have the same loss as a 400k house. I only use the ranges because it can be more visual than percentages.

Nevermind, let’s just move on and bump this in a few years…

[Ren]

[quote=sdrealtor]
The problem with your posts are they are too loosy goosy for me. The difference between 300K and 400K in the late 90’s was huge. Probably two steps up in size, location and desirability. Throw on 200% gains and you are comparing 900K homes in the same class as 1.2M homes. It’s like comparing a basic Santa Fe Trails home with a very nice Arroyo Vista home. Its too big a spread.
[/quote]
I have no doubt the difference between a 300k and 400k house was huge. I’m not saying that a 300k house had the same gain or will eventually have the same loss as a 400k house. I only use the ranges because it can be more visual than percentages.

Nevermind, let’s just move on and bump this in a few years…

[sdduuuude]

One thing that annoys me on this forum is poorly worded predictions. Be bold, make a clear prediction on a specific size/type of house. Then make the the threat of bumping the thread.

Ren – you can bump this thread all you want, but the fact is, your predictions are not clear at all so it won’t prove anything. Earlier you said “$400-500K”. Later you said “see the 500s”, which means 599K. That’s a predicted range of 400 – 599K for a house of non-descript size and location, except to say that they sold somewhere between 300 and 500K 15 years ago.

Here’s one of mine. It aint bad for Sept 8, 2006:
[quote=sdduuuude]Just for the record, I think there is a recession coming … I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early … I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008.[/quote]

http://piggington.com/95_of_us_economists_missed_the_last_recession_after_it_had_alrea

Here is a good example of a clear prediction:

[quote=sdrealtor]When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).[/quote]

I’m not familiar with the area, but if you show me a few nice, unimpaired 4BR houses between 2500 and 3000 sqft under 600K, I’ll know sdr is wrong.

If you show me any house under 500K, I still won’t know if you have actually predicted anything.

I, too, think sdr underestimates the substitution effect on this area but I appreciate his clear predition. He’s a bit rough, but he means well. I thought his sideline comment was kind of funny, actually.

My 2-step suggestion:
1) Grow thick skin.
2) Make better prediction.

[sdduuuude]

One thing that annoys me on this forum is poorly worded predictions. Be bold, make a clear prediction on a specific size/type of house. Then make the the threat of bumping the thread.

Ren – you can bump this thread all you want, but the fact is, your predictions are not clear at all so it won’t prove anything. Earlier you said “$400-500K”. Later you said “see the 500s”, which means 599K. That’s a predicted range of 400 – 599K for a house of non-descript size and location, except to say that they sold somewhere between 300 and 500K 15 years ago.

Here’s one of mine. It aint bad for Sept 8, 2006:
[quote=sdduuuude]Just for the record, I think there is a recession coming … I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early … I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008.[/quote]

http://piggington.com/95_of_us_economists_missed_the_last_recession_after_it_had_alrea

Here is a good example of a clear prediction:

[quote=sdrealtor]When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).[/quote]

I’m not familiar with the area, but if you show me a few nice, unimpaired 4BR houses between 2500 and 3000 sqft under 600K, I’ll know sdr is wrong.

If you show me any house under 500K, I still won’t know if you have actually predicted anything.

I, too, think sdr underestimates the substitution effect on this area but I appreciate his clear predition. He’s a bit rough, but he means well. I thought his sideline comment was kind of funny, actually.

My 2-step suggestion:
1) Grow thick skin.
2) Make better prediction.

[sdduuuude]

One thing that annoys me on this forum is poorly worded predictions. Be bold, make a clear prediction on a specific size/type of house. Then make the the threat of bumping the thread.

Ren – you can bump this thread all you want, but the fact is, your predictions are not clear at all so it won’t prove anything. Earlier you said “$400-500K”. Later you said “see the 500s”, which means 599K. That’s a predicted range of 400 – 599K for a house of non-descript size and location, except to say that they sold somewhere between 300 and 500K 15 years ago.

Here’s one of mine. It aint bad for Sept 8, 2006:
[quote=sdduuuude]Just for the record, I think there is a recession coming … I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early … I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008.[/quote]

http://piggington.com/95_of_us_economists_missed_the_last_recession_after_it_had_alrea

Here is a good example of a clear prediction:

[quote=sdrealtor]When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).[/quote]

I’m not familiar with the area, but if you show me a few nice, unimpaired 4BR houses between 2500 and 3000 sqft under 600K, I’ll know sdr is wrong.

If you show me any house under 500K, I still won’t know if you have actually predicted anything.

I, too, think sdr underestimates the substitution effect on this area but I appreciate his clear predition. He’s a bit rough, but he means well. I thought his sideline comment was kind of funny, actually.

My 2-step suggestion:
1) Grow thick skin.
2) Make better prediction.

[sdduuuude]

One thing that annoys me on this forum is poorly worded predictions. Be bold, make a clear prediction on a specific size/type of house. Then make the the threat of bumping the thread.

Ren – you can bump this thread all you want, but the fact is, your predictions are not clear at all so it won’t prove anything. Earlier you said “$400-500K”. Later you said “see the 500s”, which means 599K. That’s a predicted range of 400 – 599K for a house of non-descript size and location, except to say that they sold somewhere between 300 and 500K 15 years ago.

Here’s one of mine. It aint bad for Sept 8, 2006:
[quote=sdduuuude]Just for the record, I think there is a recession coming … I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early … I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008.[/quote]

http://piggington.com/95_of_us_economists_missed_the_last_recession_after_it_had_alrea

Here is a good example of a clear prediction:

[quote=sdrealtor]When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).[/quote]

I’m not familiar with the area, but if you show me a few nice, unimpaired 4BR houses between 2500 and 3000 sqft under 600K, I’ll know sdr is wrong.

If you show me any house under 500K, I still won’t know if you have actually predicted anything.

I, too, think sdr underestimates the substitution effect on this area but I appreciate his clear predition. He’s a bit rough, but he means well. I thought his sideline comment was kind of funny, actually.

My 2-step suggestion:
1) Grow thick skin.
2) Make better prediction.

[sdduuuude]

One thing that annoys me on this forum is poorly worded predictions. Be bold, make a clear prediction on a specific size/type of house. Then make the the threat of bumping the thread.

Ren – you can bump this thread all you want, but the fact is, your predictions are not clear at all so it won’t prove anything. Earlier you said “$400-500K”. Later you said “see the 500s”, which means 599K. That’s a predicted range of 400 – 599K for a house of non-descript size and location, except to say that they sold somewhere between 300 and 500K 15 years ago.

Here’s one of mine. It aint bad for Sept 8, 2006:
[quote=sdduuuude]Just for the record, I think there is a recession coming … I just think the early 2007 timeline is a bit early … I just think it will take time – very late 2007 or early 2008.[/quote]

http://piggington.com/95_of_us_economists_missed_the_last_recession_after_it_had_alrea

Here is a good example of a clear prediction:

[quote=sdrealtor]When all is said and done I believe you will still have to pony up at least 600K to get a nice 4BR between 2500 and 3000 sqft around that is not impaired in some way (i.e. backing to a busy street, trashed, under power lines, tiny yard etc.).[/quote]

I’m not familiar with the area, but if you show me a few nice, unimpaired 4BR houses between 2500 and 3000 sqft under 600K, I’ll know sdr is wrong.

If you show me any house under 500K, I still won’t know if you have actually predicted anything.

I, too, think sdr underestimates the substitution effect on this area but I appreciate his clear predition. He’s a bit rough, but he means well. I thought his sideline comment was kind of funny, actually.

My 2-step suggestion:
1) Grow thick skin.
2) Make better prediction.

[sdrealtor]

Thanks sdduuuude,
That is exactly my point. There are too many poorly worded predictions and I dont want to see the “psuedo kreskins” of the blog return with see I was right comments about these broad statements. We all know the direction and have for years around hear. We make money in this world by beating the market not matching. That is the skill not posting a link to some article confirming your biases or making a broad statement that you will be able to find a data point that sorta supports it.

Yeah Ren, sometimes I get a bit pissy and thats just me. Its how I get my points across in a crowded noisy blog. I do mean well and wish in my heart of hearts only the best for people (except the dishonest slimebag jerk offs that I despise of which no one on this blog has ever qualified as). The truth is I do mean well and hope everyone here gets the home they want without having to witness the collapse of our economy and the destruction of the lives of foolish/greedy but other good people.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Thanks sdduuuude,
That is exactly my point. There are too many poorly worded predictions and I dont want to see the “psuedo kreskins” of the blog return with see I was right comments about these broad statements. We all know the direction and have for years around hear. We make money in this world by beating the market not matching. That is the skill not posting a link to some article confirming your biases or making a broad statement that you will be able to find a data point that sorta supports it.

Yeah Ren, sometimes I get a bit pissy and thats just me. Its how I get my points across in a crowded noisy blog. I do mean well and wish in my heart of hearts only the best for people (except the dishonest slimebag jerk offs that I despise of which no one on this blog has ever qualified as). The truth is I do mean well and hope everyone here gets the home they want without having to witness the collapse of our economy and the destruction of the lives of foolish/greedy but other good people.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Thanks sdduuuude,
That is exactly my point. There are too many poorly worded predictions and I dont want to see the “psuedo kreskins” of the blog return with see I was right comments about these broad statements. We all know the direction and have for years around hear. We make money in this world by beating the market not matching. That is the skill not posting a link to some article confirming your biases or making a broad statement that you will be able to find a data point that sorta supports it.

Yeah Ren, sometimes I get a bit pissy and thats just me. Its how I get my points across in a crowded noisy blog. I do mean well and wish in my heart of hearts only the best for people (except the dishonest slimebag jerk offs that I despise of which no one on this blog has ever qualified as). The truth is I do mean well and hope everyone here gets the home they want without having to witness the collapse of our economy and the destruction of the lives of foolish/greedy but other good people.

sdr

[sdrealtor]

Thanks sdduuuude,
That is exactly my point. There are too many poorly worded predictions and I dont want to see the “psuedo kreskins” of the blog return with see I was right comments about these broad statements. We all know the direction and have for years around hear. We make money in this world by beating the market not matching. That is the skill not posting a link to some article confirming your biases or making a broad statement that you will be able to find a data point that sorta supports it.

Yeah Ren, sometimes I get a bit pissy and thats just me. Its how I get my points across in a crowded noisy blog. I do mean well and wish in my heart of hearts only the best for people (except the dishonest slimebag jerk offs that I despise of which no one on this blog has ever qualified as). The truth is I do mean well and hope everyone here gets the home they want without having to witness the collapse of our economy and the destruction of the lives of foolish/greedy but other good people.

sdr

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