Poway Neighborhoods

[SD Realtor]

I think as the summer wears on they will be forced to lower the price if they do not get into escrow in the next 2 weeks. Yes I do think the home is somewhat overpriced and I would feel better in the low 400k area. Not sure it if will get that low though. It would be interesting to see why it fell out of escrow a few weeks ago. I have worked with the listing agent before on a short sale. He did good to get the short sale done but there were some deliverables from the sellers that he lagged on and we had to pester him but he did get them all taken care of. It seems like the addition was permitted based on the sf in the tax roll but you may wanna check that.

[jeeman]

Andy, the last sale on that house was in August of 1996. That is pretty much a month or two before the bottom of the last real estate bust. Take that value, and adjust for inflation (google “inflation calculator”), to get a bottom value that it could get to in the next year or two (or three).

I get a value of $230k for the absolute bottom. Adjust upwards for the more diverse economy in San Diego, the fact that Poway is not considered “the sticks” as much anymore, the fact that we aren’t at the bottom yet, and for the recent bounce in the market.

Personally, I wouldn’t buy that house for anything in the $400k range. Maybe somewhere in the $300ks, understanding that I could still lose another $100k in value.

[jeeman]

Andy, the last sale on that house was in August of 1996. That is pretty much a month or two before the bottom of the last real estate bust. Take that value, and adjust for inflation (google “inflation calculator”), to get a bottom value that it could get to in the next year or two (or three).

I get a value of $230k for the absolute bottom. Adjust upwards for the more diverse economy in San Diego, the fact that Poway is not considered “the sticks” as much anymore, the fact that we aren’t at the bottom yet, and for the recent bounce in the market.

Personally, I wouldn’t buy that house for anything in the $400k range. Maybe somewhere in the $300ks, understanding that I could still lose another $100k in value.

[jeeman]

Andy, the last sale on that house was in August of 1996. That is pretty much a month or two before the bottom of the last real estate bust. Take that value, and adjust for inflation (google “inflation calculator”), to get a bottom value that it could get to in the next year or two (or three).

I get a value of $230k for the absolute bottom. Adjust upwards for the more diverse economy in San Diego, the fact that Poway is not considered “the sticks” as much anymore, the fact that we aren’t at the bottom yet, and for the recent bounce in the market.

Personally, I wouldn’t buy that house for anything in the $400k range. Maybe somewhere in the $300ks, understanding that I could still lose another $100k in value.

[jeeman]

Andy, the last sale on that house was in August of 1996. That is pretty much a month or two before the bottom of the last real estate bust. Take that value, and adjust for inflation (google “inflation calculator”), to get a bottom value that it could get to in the next year or two (or three).

I get a value of $230k for the absolute bottom. Adjust upwards for the more diverse economy in San Diego, the fact that Poway is not considered “the sticks” as much anymore, the fact that we aren’t at the bottom yet, and for the recent bounce in the market.

Personally, I wouldn’t buy that house for anything in the $400k range. Maybe somewhere in the $300ks, understanding that I could still lose another $100k in value.

[jeeman]

Andy, the last sale on that house was in August of 1996. That is pretty much a month or two before the bottom of the last real estate bust. Take that value, and adjust for inflation (google “inflation calculator”), to get a bottom value that it could get to in the next year or two (or three).

I get a value of $230k for the absolute bottom. Adjust upwards for the more diverse economy in San Diego, the fact that Poway is not considered “the sticks” as much anymore, the fact that we aren’t at the bottom yet, and for the recent bounce in the market.

Personally, I wouldn’t buy that house for anything in the $400k range. Maybe somewhere in the $300ks, understanding that I could still lose another $100k in value.

[andymajumder]

Though, I agree that home prices should still go down in San Diego and to a large extent has been artificially propped up…I doubt a house like that in Poway would sell for mid 300s. You would also have to see that interest rates now are at an historic low, I could get a 4.75% 30yr fixed now, which I believe people could only dream of in the 90s. (I will admit, I am not very versed on how interest rates were in 96s…I am 30 myself and that too an immigrant…but I believe interest rates were higher in 1990s in the US).
Look, I have been on this site for more than 4 yrs and I believe home prices are still too expensive compared to purchasing power in SD. But, I doubt it will fall significantly from here, I think the federal govt will start some other scheme as soon as housing starts faltering again…it will be a gradual decline with inflation gradully cushioning the fall…

[andymajumder]

Though, I agree that home prices should still go down in San Diego and to a large extent has been artificially propped up…I doubt a house like that in Poway would sell for mid 300s. You would also have to see that interest rates now are at an historic low, I could get a 4.75% 30yr fixed now, which I believe people could only dream of in the 90s. (I will admit, I am not very versed on how interest rates were in 96s…I am 30 myself and that too an immigrant…but I believe interest rates were higher in 1990s in the US).
Look, I have been on this site for more than 4 yrs and I believe home prices are still too expensive compared to purchasing power in SD. But, I doubt it will fall significantly from here, I think the federal govt will start some other scheme as soon as housing starts faltering again…it will be a gradual decline with inflation gradully cushioning the fall…

[andymajumder]

Though, I agree that home prices should still go down in San Diego and to a large extent has been artificially propped up…I doubt a house like that in Poway would sell for mid 300s. You would also have to see that interest rates now are at an historic low, I could get a 4.75% 30yr fixed now, which I believe people could only dream of in the 90s. (I will admit, I am not very versed on how interest rates were in 96s…I am 30 myself and that too an immigrant…but I believe interest rates were higher in 1990s in the US).
Look, I have been on this site for more than 4 yrs and I believe home prices are still too expensive compared to purchasing power in SD. But, I doubt it will fall significantly from here, I think the federal govt will start some other scheme as soon as housing starts faltering again…it will be a gradual decline with inflation gradully cushioning the fall…

[andymajumder]

Though, I agree that home prices should still go down in San Diego and to a large extent has been artificially propped up…I doubt a house like that in Poway would sell for mid 300s. You would also have to see that interest rates now are at an historic low, I could get a 4.75% 30yr fixed now, which I believe people could only dream of in the 90s. (I will admit, I am not very versed on how interest rates were in 96s…I am 30 myself and that too an immigrant…but I believe interest rates were higher in 1990s in the US).
Look, I have been on this site for more than 4 yrs and I believe home prices are still too expensive compared to purchasing power in SD. But, I doubt it will fall significantly from here, I think the federal govt will start some other scheme as soon as housing starts faltering again…it will be a gradual decline with inflation gradully cushioning the fall…

[andymajumder]

Though, I agree that home prices should still go down in San Diego and to a large extent has been artificially propped up…I doubt a house like that in Poway would sell for mid 300s. You would also have to see that interest rates now are at an historic low, I could get a 4.75% 30yr fixed now, which I believe people could only dream of in the 90s. (I will admit, I am not very versed on how interest rates were in 96s…I am 30 myself and that too an immigrant…but I believe interest rates were higher in 1990s in the US).
Look, I have been on this site for more than 4 yrs and I believe home prices are still too expensive compared to purchasing power in SD. But, I doubt it will fall significantly from here, I think the federal govt will start some other scheme as soon as housing starts faltering again…it will be a gradual decline with inflation gradully cushioning the fall…

[Anonymous]

sd-realtor:
Your comparative analysis is spot on. My close friend was in escrow with that property. She told me that the appraisal came in at $420K ($40K less than the listing price). When she looked into the appraisal report, she realized that the listing agent had the sq footage inflated by 15% in the MLS listing. The listing agent refused to admit anything and demanded the same original contract price. He presented comparables showing the price for that home was in the range $475-$520K! The listing agent also tried to intimidate the home inspector after he found things that were totally unsafe or needed immediate attention. Moreover, they also demanded a 2-month rent-back. My friend was thoroughly disgusted and walked away. I know she was totally relieved after that. After it fell out of escrow, the listing was corrected to reflect the correct sq footage. What unscrupulous people!

[Anonymous]

sd-realtor:
Your comparative analysis is spot on. My close friend was in escrow with that property. She told me that the appraisal came in at $420K ($40K less than the listing price). When she looked into the appraisal report, she realized that the listing agent had the sq footage inflated by 15% in the MLS listing. The listing agent refused to admit anything and demanded the same original contract price. He presented comparables showing the price for that home was in the range $475-$520K! The listing agent also tried to intimidate the home inspector after he found things that were totally unsafe or needed immediate attention. Moreover, they also demanded a 2-month rent-back. My friend was thoroughly disgusted and walked away. I know she was totally relieved after that. After it fell out of escrow, the listing was corrected to reflect the correct sq footage. What unscrupulous people!

[Anonymous]

sd-realtor:
Your comparative analysis is spot on. My close friend was in escrow with that property. She told me that the appraisal came in at $420K ($40K less than the listing price). When she looked into the appraisal report, she realized that the listing agent had the sq footage inflated by 15% in the MLS listing. The listing agent refused to admit anything and demanded the same original contract price. He presented comparables showing the price for that home was in the range $475-$520K! The listing agent also tried to intimidate the home inspector after he found things that were totally unsafe or needed immediate attention. Moreover, they also demanded a 2-month rent-back. My friend was thoroughly disgusted and walked away. I know she was totally relieved after that. After it fell out of escrow, the listing was corrected to reflect the correct sq footage. What unscrupulous people!

[Anonymous]

sd-realtor:
Your comparative analysis is spot on. My close friend was in escrow with that property. She told me that the appraisal came in at $420K ($40K less than the listing price). When she looked into the appraisal report, she realized that the listing agent had the sq footage inflated by 15% in the MLS listing. The listing agent refused to admit anything and demanded the same original contract price. He presented comparables showing the price for that home was in the range $475-$520K! The listing agent also tried to intimidate the home inspector after he found things that were totally unsafe or needed immediate attention. Moreover, they also demanded a 2-month rent-back. My friend was thoroughly disgusted and walked away. I know she was totally relieved after that. After it fell out of escrow, the listing was corrected to reflect the correct sq footage. What unscrupulous people!

[Author]

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