Sometimes a person has a set of beliefs that they operate with.
For a while, the person can be right but if they are unable to adapt to a new reality, and the developments go against their beliefs, it can be quite painful psychologically to acknowledge it.
The housing recovery has been strong, prices continue to increase.
It is almost boring now. The demographics and lack of construction will continue.
The conversation becomes more subtle. Less room for grandstanding and loud opinions without supporting data.
The statement that “the housing recovery has been strong, and prices continue to increase. It is almost boring now” I think sets the stage for 2018. No one is really talking about a turn around in housing prices – which may be a sign that the market is about to reverse!!
The stock market, and housing are flying high and could be hurt easily by interest rates, or N.K. or . . . Median income has not kept pace with housing prices(although not as bad as 2005) and a few percentage points in interest rates could make housing even more unaffordable. Plus as t-bills start to pay 4 or 5 percent, a lot of us will flee the stock market.
All in all, 2018 may be a very exciting year.
During the depths of the financial crisis, I sold most of my treasuries and bought stocks and high yield debt. When high yield recovered, I sold and bought more real estate.
Effectively, real estate (with modest leverage) replaced my bond portion of the portfolio. I know they behave very differently but do produce income. Really the only thing they have in common.
I’m more and more convinced that the 10 year will top out at most 3%.
For many purposes, that would be enough to put 30% back in intermediate treasuries with a 5-7 year duration which would likely yield about 2.5%. That would cover about 75% of my fixed rates which average 3.3%.
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