Pain in La Jolla

[XBoxBoy]

Lajolla-pig,

If it did get an offer for 1.5 that’s really crazy.

There have been a number of sales, in the 1.5 range that are better places, and I can think of several places on the market in that range that are much better deals than this place at 1.5.

But after watching the la jolla market for the last couple of years I can tell you that there is no limit to people’s foolishness.

Having said that, I will still stick to my original commentary, which is that there is a good bit of softening, and even some serious pain (ie loss of capital) in La Jolla.

XboxBoy

[Anonymous]

$1M home with an ocean view in LaJolla??

Ill go out on a limb and say i think it will happen. Im waiting for the same thing in Coronado (sans ocean view)…and i think it will happen there too.

The McMansion wannabee 4plex condos in PB are still mostly $600K+ An ocean view home in Lajolla is easily worth double that…..so as long as PB says high, LaJolla will hold. As long as Claremont stays high, PB will hold…..as long as Chula Vista stays high…oh wait, it hasnt…

It just takes time. 30 year fixed back at 8% and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down. PB is still 2x-2.5x overpriced.

8% 30 year fixed isnt much of a stretch since it tracks the 10 year treasury….yes, it’s in the tank now, but just wait. The way the fed is printing money and the world is dumping dollars, a 7% 10 year treasury is a very realistic option. And the fed simply cant buy them down, with what?? more 10 year treasuries ??

When PB goes to $250K for the Mcmansion wannabe, the homes on the back side of the hill in PB will be $500K. The homes in Lajolla on the front side of the hill will be $750k.

It all just takes time. The opion ARM, I/O, and ALT A were the toxicity of choice in Coronado and LaJolla (so ive heard)….lions share of resets in 2010.

With no ‘move up’ market comming in…..the number of fat cats with $1.5 in cash will already be in the homes. One by one, neighborhood by neighborhood the prices will fall. Each rung on the ‘move up’ ladder will captulate in order. Before this is all over…..home on the hill with an ocean view will be under $1,000,000

Jasper

P.S. Of course, this is based on 2008 dollars. If the fed keeps printing, we’ll all live in $10M homes, and drive $1M cars.

[Anonymous]

$1M home with an ocean view in LaJolla??

Ill go out on a limb and say i think it will happen. Im waiting for the same thing in Coronado (sans ocean view)…and i think it will happen there too.

The McMansion wannabee 4plex condos in PB are still mostly $600K+ An ocean view home in Lajolla is easily worth double that…..so as long as PB says high, LaJolla will hold. As long as Claremont stays high, PB will hold…..as long as Chula Vista stays high…oh wait, it hasnt…

It just takes time. 30 year fixed back at 8% and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down. PB is still 2x-2.5x overpriced.

8% 30 year fixed isnt much of a stretch since it tracks the 10 year treasury….yes, it’s in the tank now, but just wait. The way the fed is printing money and the world is dumping dollars, a 7% 10 year treasury is a very realistic option. And the fed simply cant buy them down, with what?? more 10 year treasuries ??

When PB goes to $250K for the Mcmansion wannabe, the homes on the back side of the hill in PB will be $500K. The homes in Lajolla on the front side of the hill will be $750k.

It all just takes time. The opion ARM, I/O, and ALT A were the toxicity of choice in Coronado and LaJolla (so ive heard)….lions share of resets in 2010.

With no ‘move up’ market comming in…..the number of fat cats with $1.5 in cash will already be in the homes. One by one, neighborhood by neighborhood the prices will fall. Each rung on the ‘move up’ ladder will captulate in order. Before this is all over…..home on the hill with an ocean view will be under $1,000,000

Jasper

P.S. Of course, this is based on 2008 dollars. If the fed keeps printing, we’ll all live in $10M homes, and drive $1M cars.

[Anonymous]

$1M home with an ocean view in LaJolla??

Ill go out on a limb and say i think it will happen. Im waiting for the same thing in Coronado (sans ocean view)…and i think it will happen there too.

The McMansion wannabee 4plex condos in PB are still mostly $600K+ An ocean view home in Lajolla is easily worth double that…..so as long as PB says high, LaJolla will hold. As long as Claremont stays high, PB will hold…..as long as Chula Vista stays high…oh wait, it hasnt…

It just takes time. 30 year fixed back at 8% and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down. PB is still 2x-2.5x overpriced.

8% 30 year fixed isnt much of a stretch since it tracks the 10 year treasury….yes, it’s in the tank now, but just wait. The way the fed is printing money and the world is dumping dollars, a 7% 10 year treasury is a very realistic option. And the fed simply cant buy them down, with what?? more 10 year treasuries ??

When PB goes to $250K for the Mcmansion wannabe, the homes on the back side of the hill in PB will be $500K. The homes in Lajolla on the front side of the hill will be $750k.

It all just takes time. The opion ARM, I/O, and ALT A were the toxicity of choice in Coronado and LaJolla (so ive heard)….lions share of resets in 2010.

With no ‘move up’ market comming in…..the number of fat cats with $1.5 in cash will already be in the homes. One by one, neighborhood by neighborhood the prices will fall. Each rung on the ‘move up’ ladder will captulate in order. Before this is all over…..home on the hill with an ocean view will be under $1,000,000

Jasper

P.S. Of course, this is based on 2008 dollars. If the fed keeps printing, we’ll all live in $10M homes, and drive $1M cars.

[Anonymous]

$1M home with an ocean view in LaJolla??

Ill go out on a limb and say i think it will happen. Im waiting for the same thing in Coronado (sans ocean view)…and i think it will happen there too.

The McMansion wannabee 4plex condos in PB are still mostly $600K+ An ocean view home in Lajolla is easily worth double that…..so as long as PB says high, LaJolla will hold. As long as Claremont stays high, PB will hold…..as long as Chula Vista stays high…oh wait, it hasnt…

It just takes time. 30 year fixed back at 8% and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down. PB is still 2x-2.5x overpriced.

8% 30 year fixed isnt much of a stretch since it tracks the 10 year treasury….yes, it’s in the tank now, but just wait. The way the fed is printing money and the world is dumping dollars, a 7% 10 year treasury is a very realistic option. And the fed simply cant buy them down, with what?? more 10 year treasuries ??

When PB goes to $250K for the Mcmansion wannabe, the homes on the back side of the hill in PB will be $500K. The homes in Lajolla on the front side of the hill will be $750k.

It all just takes time. The opion ARM, I/O, and ALT A were the toxicity of choice in Coronado and LaJolla (so ive heard)….lions share of resets in 2010.

With no ‘move up’ market comming in…..the number of fat cats with $1.5 in cash will already be in the homes. One by one, neighborhood by neighborhood the prices will fall. Each rung on the ‘move up’ ladder will captulate in order. Before this is all over…..home on the hill with an ocean view will be under $1,000,000

Jasper

P.S. Of course, this is based on 2008 dollars. If the fed keeps printing, we’ll all live in $10M homes, and drive $1M cars.

[Anonymous]

$1M home with an ocean view in LaJolla??

Ill go out on a limb and say i think it will happen. Im waiting for the same thing in Coronado (sans ocean view)…and i think it will happen there too.

The McMansion wannabee 4plex condos in PB are still mostly $600K+ An ocean view home in Lajolla is easily worth double that…..so as long as PB says high, LaJolla will hold. As long as Claremont stays high, PB will hold…..as long as Chula Vista stays high…oh wait, it hasnt…

It just takes time. 30 year fixed back at 8% and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down. PB is still 2x-2.5x overpriced.

8% 30 year fixed isnt much of a stretch since it tracks the 10 year treasury….yes, it’s in the tank now, but just wait. The way the fed is printing money and the world is dumping dollars, a 7% 10 year treasury is a very realistic option. And the fed simply cant buy them down, with what?? more 10 year treasuries ??

When PB goes to $250K for the Mcmansion wannabe, the homes on the back side of the hill in PB will be $500K. The homes in Lajolla on the front side of the hill will be $750k.

It all just takes time. The opion ARM, I/O, and ALT A were the toxicity of choice in Coronado and LaJolla (so ive heard)….lions share of resets in 2010.

With no ‘move up’ market comming in…..the number of fat cats with $1.5 in cash will already be in the homes. One by one, neighborhood by neighborhood the prices will fall. Each rung on the ‘move up’ ladder will captulate in order. Before this is all over…..home on the hill with an ocean view will be under $1,000,000

Jasper

P.S. Of course, this is based on 2008 dollars. If the fed keeps printing, we’ll all live in $10M homes, and drive $1M cars.

[Anonymous]

“and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down.”

Where did you get that information? I think you are WAY off base with tht one. Besides, what does the average income of someone who lives there and has owned his/her homwe since 1999 or 2000 have to do with it?

Isn’t it the affordability for people looking to buy that is relevant? Unfortunately for many, PB likely is not going to be affordable for the middle class again.

[Anonymous]

“and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down.”

Where did you get that information? I think you are WAY off base with tht one. Besides, what does the average income of someone who lives there and has owned his/her homwe since 1999 or 2000 have to do with it?

Isn’t it the affordability for people looking to buy that is relevant? Unfortunately for many, PB likely is not going to be affordable for the middle class again.

[Anonymous]

“and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down.”

Where did you get that information? I think you are WAY off base with tht one. Besides, what does the average income of someone who lives there and has owned his/her homwe since 1999 or 2000 have to do with it?

Isn’t it the affordability for people looking to buy that is relevant? Unfortunately for many, PB likely is not going to be affordable for the middle class again.

[Anonymous]

“and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down.”

Where did you get that information? I think you are WAY off base with tht one. Besides, what does the average income of someone who lives there and has owned his/her homwe since 1999 or 2000 have to do with it?

Isn’t it the affordability for people looking to buy that is relevant? Unfortunately for many, PB likely is not going to be affordable for the middle class again.

[Anonymous]

“and the avg PB income can only afford $250Kish but would need 10% down.”

Where did you get that information? I think you are WAY off base with tht one. Besides, what does the average income of someone who lives there and has owned his/her homwe since 1999 or 2000 have to do with it?

Isn’t it the affordability for people looking to buy that is relevant? Unfortunately for many, PB likely is not going to be affordable for the middle class again.

[34f3f3f]

If some people are prepared to pay these sorts of prices, and no doubt there are a few, that’s pretty desperate, and wherever there is desperation, it’s an indication that it’s neither the time not place to be looking. The notion that it’s still a great time to buy in places where prices are still appreciating is history. Buyers with any grasp of reality don’t want to hear that. Every time a Realtor tells me that prices are still appreciating, or properties are getting multiple offers, I just walk straight out of the door, because it’s just the same old insanity that got us into this mess in the first place. It doesn’t work as an incentive or pressure in this market anymore. Yes, La Jolla is nice, but not that nice that I’d want to throw stupid money at. No doubt cache is a big part of pricing, and that is probably the hard outer shell that needs more than just a little tap to crack.

[34f3f3f]

If some people are prepared to pay these sorts of prices, and no doubt there are a few, that’s pretty desperate, and wherever there is desperation, it’s an indication that it’s neither the time not place to be looking. The notion that it’s still a great time to buy in places where prices are still appreciating is history. Buyers with any grasp of reality don’t want to hear that. Every time a Realtor tells me that prices are still appreciating, or properties are getting multiple offers, I just walk straight out of the door, because it’s just the same old insanity that got us into this mess in the first place. It doesn’t work as an incentive or pressure in this market anymore. Yes, La Jolla is nice, but not that nice that I’d want to throw stupid money at. No doubt cache is a big part of pricing, and that is probably the hard outer shell that needs more than just a little tap to crack.

[34f3f3f]

If some people are prepared to pay these sorts of prices, and no doubt there are a few, that’s pretty desperate, and wherever there is desperation, it’s an indication that it’s neither the time not place to be looking. The notion that it’s still a great time to buy in places where prices are still appreciating is history. Buyers with any grasp of reality don’t want to hear that. Every time a Realtor tells me that prices are still appreciating, or properties are getting multiple offers, I just walk straight out of the door, because it’s just the same old insanity that got us into this mess in the first place. It doesn’t work as an incentive or pressure in this market anymore. Yes, La Jolla is nice, but not that nice that I’d want to throw stupid money at. No doubt cache is a big part of pricing, and that is probably the hard outer shell that needs more than just a little tap to crack.

[34f3f3f]

If some people are prepared to pay these sorts of prices, and no doubt there are a few, that’s pretty desperate, and wherever there is desperation, it’s an indication that it’s neither the time not place to be looking. The notion that it’s still a great time to buy in places where prices are still appreciating is history. Buyers with any grasp of reality don’t want to hear that. Every time a Realtor tells me that prices are still appreciating, or properties are getting multiple offers, I just walk straight out of the door, because it’s just the same old insanity that got us into this mess in the first place. It doesn’t work as an incentive or pressure in this market anymore. Yes, La Jolla is nice, but not that nice that I’d want to throw stupid money at. No doubt cache is a big part of pricing, and that is probably the hard outer shell that needs more than just a little tap to crack.

[Author]

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