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Nor-LA-SD-guy.
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February 27, 2009 at 3:49 PM #357171February 28, 2009 at 12:17 AM #356992
temeculaguy
Participantsvelte-actually that isn’t the one I’m looking at, but the math is the same, I never actually post the exact ones, I’m too afraid another pigg will beat me so I post ones that are as close as possible then modify the numners when I post the analysis, but thanks for the heads up anyway.
peter-I’m shocked that supported the idea, you are one the bears and if yo support it, then i may be onto something. I did what you said and did my due diligence and decided to wait. Rents are pretty much the same but I drove by my old rental, it’s still vacant after two months. It’s a different management company that had the sign out front and I’m pretty sure someone moved in just after I left so I’m not sure what happened. I do know what my landlord had paid and they were losing money at the rent I was paying them, lots of it, so I’m not sure if they can lower it even $100 to stay with the trend. It was the only one vacant out of a hundred units so the jury is out, but I obviously need to look into this further.
scardeycat-I almost did the same thing, sometimes I wish I had. I remember finding ubercheap places and calculating a 5 year mortgage, I just couldn’t get the kids to get out of the car and look at it, I don’t have a spouse to convince but in the end couldn’t convince myself, yet I loved the idea. I think you need to get a bunch of friends together and take over a cheap neighborhood, the biggest drawback wasn’t the age and the size, it was the neighbors.
kewp, there hasn’t been hardly anything built in a while, new construction has pretty much been shut down for a year. Forbes listed Temecula and Murrieta as two of top 5 markets in the country for the high sales due to the price drops, Nor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes. The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there. I ran my old three car garage monitor formula, inventory is falling. Waiting hawk, as always is right, there really is no difference between mid 90’s and late 80’s here.
My biggest fear is maintenance on a 20-30 year old low end house that probably wasn’t built well to begin with, combining all the factors, I think I’ll just watch this for the next year and not act to hastily and I’ll e-mail pri-dk and compare notes, or rather just steal his, since i have only just begun taking notes.
February 28, 2009 at 12:17 AM #357294Participantsvelte-actually that isn’t the one I’m looking at, but the math is the same, I never actually post the exact ones, I’m too afraid another pigg will beat me so I post ones that are as close as possible then modify the numners when I post the analysis, but thanks for the heads up anyway.
peter-I’m shocked that supported the idea, you are one the bears and if yo support it, then i may be onto something. I did what you said and did my due diligence and decided to wait. Rents are pretty much the same but I drove by my old rental, it’s still vacant after two months. It’s a different management company that had the sign out front and I’m pretty sure someone moved in just after I left so I’m not sure what happened. I do know what my landlord had paid and they were losing money at the rent I was paying them, lots of it, so I’m not sure if they can lower it even $100 to stay with the trend. It was the only one vacant out of a hundred units so the jury is out, but I obviously need to look into this further.
scardeycat-I almost did the same thing, sometimes I wish I had. I remember finding ubercheap places and calculating a 5 year mortgage, I just couldn’t get the kids to get out of the car and look at it, I don’t have a spouse to convince but in the end couldn’t convince myself, yet I loved the idea. I think you need to get a bunch of friends together and take over a cheap neighborhood, the biggest drawback wasn’t the age and the size, it was the neighbors.
kewp, there hasn’t been hardly anything built in a while, new construction has pretty much been shut down for a year. Forbes listed Temecula and Murrieta as two of top 5 markets in the country for the high sales due to the price drops, Nor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes. The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there. I ran my old three car garage monitor formula, inventory is falling. Waiting hawk, as always is right, there really is no difference between mid 90’s and late 80’s here.
My biggest fear is maintenance on a 20-30 year old low end house that probably wasn’t built well to begin with, combining all the factors, I think I’ll just watch this for the next year and not act to hastily and I’ll e-mail pri-dk and compare notes, or rather just steal his, since i have only just begun taking notes.
February 28, 2009 at 12:17 AM #357433Participantsvelte-actually that isn’t the one I’m looking at, but the math is the same, I never actually post the exact ones, I’m too afraid another pigg will beat me so I post ones that are as close as possible then modify the numners when I post the analysis, but thanks for the heads up anyway.
peter-I’m shocked that supported the idea, you are one the bears and if yo support it, then i may be onto something. I did what you said and did my due diligence and decided to wait. Rents are pretty much the same but I drove by my old rental, it’s still vacant after two months. It’s a different management company that had the sign out front and I’m pretty sure someone moved in just after I left so I’m not sure what happened. I do know what my landlord had paid and they were losing money at the rent I was paying them, lots of it, so I’m not sure if they can lower it even $100 to stay with the trend. It was the only one vacant out of a hundred units so the jury is out, but I obviously need to look into this further.
scardeycat-I almost did the same thing, sometimes I wish I had. I remember finding ubercheap places and calculating a 5 year mortgage, I just couldn’t get the kids to get out of the car and look at it, I don’t have a spouse to convince but in the end couldn’t convince myself, yet I loved the idea. I think you need to get a bunch of friends together and take over a cheap neighborhood, the biggest drawback wasn’t the age and the size, it was the neighbors.
kewp, there hasn’t been hardly anything built in a while, new construction has pretty much been shut down for a year. Forbes listed Temecula and Murrieta as two of top 5 markets in the country for the high sales due to the price drops, Nor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes. The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there. I ran my old three car garage monitor formula, inventory is falling. Waiting hawk, as always is right, there really is no difference between mid 90’s and late 80’s here.
My biggest fear is maintenance on a 20-30 year old low end house that probably wasn’t built well to begin with, combining all the factors, I think I’ll just watch this for the next year and not act to hastily and I’ll e-mail pri-dk and compare notes, or rather just steal his, since i have only just begun taking notes.
February 28, 2009 at 12:17 AM #357461Participantsvelte-actually that isn’t the one I’m looking at, but the math is the same, I never actually post the exact ones, I’m too afraid another pigg will beat me so I post ones that are as close as possible then modify the numners when I post the analysis, but thanks for the heads up anyway.
peter-I’m shocked that supported the idea, you are one the bears and if yo support it, then i may be onto something. I did what you said and did my due diligence and decided to wait. Rents are pretty much the same but I drove by my old rental, it’s still vacant after two months. It’s a different management company that had the sign out front and I’m pretty sure someone moved in just after I left so I’m not sure what happened. I do know what my landlord had paid and they were losing money at the rent I was paying them, lots of it, so I’m not sure if they can lower it even $100 to stay with the trend. It was the only one vacant out of a hundred units so the jury is out, but I obviously need to look into this further.
scardeycat-I almost did the same thing, sometimes I wish I had. I remember finding ubercheap places and calculating a 5 year mortgage, I just couldn’t get the kids to get out of the car and look at it, I don’t have a spouse to convince but in the end couldn’t convince myself, yet I loved the idea. I think you need to get a bunch of friends together and take over a cheap neighborhood, the biggest drawback wasn’t the age and the size, it was the neighbors.
kewp, there hasn’t been hardly anything built in a while, new construction has pretty much been shut down for a year. Forbes listed Temecula and Murrieta as two of top 5 markets in the country for the high sales due to the price drops, Nor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes. The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there. I ran my old three car garage monitor formula, inventory is falling. Waiting hawk, as always is right, there really is no difference between mid 90’s and late 80’s here.
My biggest fear is maintenance on a 20-30 year old low end house that probably wasn’t built well to begin with, combining all the factors, I think I’ll just watch this for the next year and not act to hastily and I’ll e-mail pri-dk and compare notes, or rather just steal his, since i have only just begun taking notes.
February 28, 2009 at 12:17 AM #357571Participantsvelte-actually that isn’t the one I’m looking at, but the math is the same, I never actually post the exact ones, I’m too afraid another pigg will beat me so I post ones that are as close as possible then modify the numners when I post the analysis, but thanks for the heads up anyway.
peter-I’m shocked that supported the idea, you are one the bears and if yo support it, then i may be onto something. I did what you said and did my due diligence and decided to wait. Rents are pretty much the same but I drove by my old rental, it’s still vacant after two months. It’s a different management company that had the sign out front and I’m pretty sure someone moved in just after I left so I’m not sure what happened. I do know what my landlord had paid and they were losing money at the rent I was paying them, lots of it, so I’m not sure if they can lower it even $100 to stay with the trend. It was the only one vacant out of a hundred units so the jury is out, but I obviously need to look into this further.
scardeycat-I almost did the same thing, sometimes I wish I had. I remember finding ubercheap places and calculating a 5 year mortgage, I just couldn’t get the kids to get out of the car and look at it, I don’t have a spouse to convince but in the end couldn’t convince myself, yet I loved the idea. I think you need to get a bunch of friends together and take over a cheap neighborhood, the biggest drawback wasn’t the age and the size, it was the neighbors.
kewp, there hasn’t been hardly anything built in a while, new construction has pretty much been shut down for a year. Forbes listed Temecula and Murrieta as two of top 5 markets in the country for the high sales due to the price drops, Nor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes. The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there. I ran my old three car garage monitor formula, inventory is falling. Waiting hawk, as always is right, there really is no difference between mid 90’s and late 80’s here.
My biggest fear is maintenance on a 20-30 year old low end house that probably wasn’t built well to begin with, combining all the factors, I think I’ll just watch this for the next year and not act to hastily and I’ll e-mail pri-dk and compare notes, or rather just steal his, since i have only just begun taking notes.
February 28, 2009 at 1:04 AM #357002CA renter
ParticipantNor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes.
How many of those homes are being “snapped up” by other investors who are looking at the same numbers you are? I’m hearing enough stories to believe that many of today’s sales are NOT to owner-occupants, but to investors. This is potential “pent-up” supply, either as rentals or new foreclosures/sales down the road that will drop the value of your new rental. This could reduce rents, too, because people will opt to buy the new, cheap houses instead of rent.
The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there.
Agree that these homes are the bread-and-butter of the smart investors. There will ALWAYS be a demand for low-priced housing, no matter what the economy does, and dollar-for-dollar, even if prices do drop, your potential loss is less than if you would have bought a $500K house.
I think it’s a good idea to wait. Good luck, either way. 🙂
February 28, 2009 at 1:04 AM #357304ParticipantNor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes.
How many of those homes are being “snapped up” by other investors who are looking at the same numbers you are? I’m hearing enough stories to believe that many of today’s sales are NOT to owner-occupants, but to investors. This is potential “pent-up” supply, either as rentals or new foreclosures/sales down the road that will drop the value of your new rental. This could reduce rents, too, because people will opt to buy the new, cheap houses instead of rent.
The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there.
Agree that these homes are the bread-and-butter of the smart investors. There will ALWAYS be a demand for low-priced housing, no matter what the economy does, and dollar-for-dollar, even if prices do drop, your potential loss is less than if you would have bought a $500K house.
I think it’s a good idea to wait. Good luck, either way. 🙂
February 28, 2009 at 1:04 AM #357443ParticipantNor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes.
How many of those homes are being “snapped up” by other investors who are looking at the same numbers you are? I’m hearing enough stories to believe that many of today’s sales are NOT to owner-occupants, but to investors. This is potential “pent-up” supply, either as rentals or new foreclosures/sales down the road that will drop the value of your new rental. This could reduce rents, too, because people will opt to buy the new, cheap houses instead of rent.
The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there.
Agree that these homes are the bread-and-butter of the smart investors. There will ALWAYS be a demand for low-priced housing, no matter what the economy does, and dollar-for-dollar, even if prices do drop, your potential loss is less than if you would have bought a $500K house.
I think it’s a good idea to wait. Good luck, either way. 🙂
February 28, 2009 at 1:04 AM #357471ParticipantNor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes.
How many of those homes are being “snapped up” by other investors who are looking at the same numbers you are? I’m hearing enough stories to believe that many of today’s sales are NOT to owner-occupants, but to investors. This is potential “pent-up” supply, either as rentals or new foreclosures/sales down the road that will drop the value of your new rental. This could reduce rents, too, because people will opt to buy the new, cheap houses instead of rent.
The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there.
Agree that these homes are the bread-and-butter of the smart investors. There will ALWAYS be a demand for low-priced housing, no matter what the economy does, and dollar-for-dollar, even if prices do drop, your potential loss is less than if you would have bought a $500K house.
I think it’s a good idea to wait. Good luck, either way. 🙂
February 28, 2009 at 1:04 AM #357581ParticipantNor is right about the activity, bread last longer at the store than houses these days, listings can’t be measured in days, but should be in hours sometimes.
How many of those homes are being “snapped up” by other investors who are looking at the same numbers you are? I’m hearing enough stories to believe that many of today’s sales are NOT to owner-occupants, but to investors. This is potential “pent-up” supply, either as rentals or new foreclosures/sales down the road that will drop the value of your new rental. This could reduce rents, too, because people will opt to buy the new, cheap houses instead of rent.
The point of the thread was the smaller places in cruddier hoods more than 20 years old without hoa’s are being overlooked and as Russell pointed out from his past experience, sometimes that is where the better investments are located. If you look at my example, prices are more than half off, that is why the glut isn’t there.
Agree that these homes are the bread-and-butter of the smart investors. There will ALWAYS be a demand for low-priced housing, no matter what the economy does, and dollar-for-dollar, even if prices do drop, your potential loss is less than if you would have bought a $500K house.
I think it’s a good idea to wait. Good luck, either way. 🙂
February 28, 2009 at 9:16 AM #357152peterb
ParticipantI’ve made very good money in RE. My bearish sentiment is only when the numbers or the trend stinks. The trend is against you right now. But if the numbers are good enough, you can beat the trend. If you can cash flow enough positive each month…you’ve got a fairly good cushion for future problems. Being a landlord is a WORLD unto itself. You’ve got your analysis down, so I’d start learning the tricks to being a LL, if I were you. A guy named Mike Cantu is the best I’ve seen. You may want to Google him to see if you can learn from him.
Again, I’d really sus out the market to make sure you can keep the unit occupied with reliable tenants for the next 5 years. Few people are good at being LL’s and the end-game is usually to sell the place at big profit. Some want to own free and clear and have a cash cow for decades. But that’s a real long-term strategy you may not be willing to live through.
February 28, 2009 at 9:16 AM #357454ParticipantI’ve made very good money in RE. My bearish sentiment is only when the numbers or the trend stinks. The trend is against you right now. But if the numbers are good enough, you can beat the trend. If you can cash flow enough positive each month…you’ve got a fairly good cushion for future problems. Being a landlord is a WORLD unto itself. You’ve got your analysis down, so I’d start learning the tricks to being a LL, if I were you. A guy named Mike Cantu is the best I’ve seen. You may want to Google him to see if you can learn from him.
Again, I’d really sus out the market to make sure you can keep the unit occupied with reliable tenants for the next 5 years. Few people are good at being LL’s and the end-game is usually to sell the place at big profit. Some want to own free and clear and have a cash cow for decades. But that’s a real long-term strategy you may not be willing to live through.
February 28, 2009 at 9:16 AM #357593ParticipantI’ve made very good money in RE. My bearish sentiment is only when the numbers or the trend stinks. The trend is against you right now. But if the numbers are good enough, you can beat the trend. If you can cash flow enough positive each month…you’ve got a fairly good cushion for future problems. Being a landlord is a WORLD unto itself. You’ve got your analysis down, so I’d start learning the tricks to being a LL, if I were you. A guy named Mike Cantu is the best I’ve seen. You may want to Google him to see if you can learn from him.
Again, I’d really sus out the market to make sure you can keep the unit occupied with reliable tenants for the next 5 years. Few people are good at being LL’s and the end-game is usually to sell the place at big profit. Some want to own free and clear and have a cash cow for decades. But that’s a real long-term strategy you may not be willing to live through.
February 28, 2009 at 9:16 AM #357623ParticipantI’ve made very good money in RE. My bearish sentiment is only when the numbers or the trend stinks. The trend is against you right now. But if the numbers are good enough, you can beat the trend. If you can cash flow enough positive each month…you’ve got a fairly good cushion for future problems. Being a landlord is a WORLD unto itself. You’ve got your analysis down, so I’d start learning the tricks to being a LL, if I were you. A guy named Mike Cantu is the best I’ve seen. You may want to Google him to see if you can learn from him.
Again, I’d really sus out the market to make sure you can keep the unit occupied with reliable tenants for the next 5 years. Few people are good at being LL’s and the end-game is usually to sell the place at big profit. Some want to own free and clear and have a cash cow for decades. But that’s a real long-term strategy you may not be willing to live through.
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