OT What is a knife cacther…

[temeculaguy]

We may not know exactly what is going to happen in the future but many of us study a variety of factors, data and history to get a vague idea. On these boards we discuss our vague ideas in search of more data and some clarity. Can anyone predict exactly, ni, can we get fairly close, YES.

Everyone is not a knife catcher, the term applies only to those buying in a falling market and buy too early. It has no applications in a rising market or at market peak. Market peak buyers are called “fb” or “fb’s” an abbreviation of f—ed buyer, and that is generally reserved for those who bought at peak with adjustable low or no down loans in the hopes of selling or refinancing when values went up, they can’t carry the fully amortized payment. Values went down, so now they are f—ed.

I also use the term “butterknife cathers” for those who have seen prices fall within affordability, perhaps they are paying pre 2003 prces and half price compared to peak. People with 20% down and fixed mortgages that they can afford with doc’d income. They are not risking near as much as those paying near peak and they are immune to further declines because their fundamentals don’t require appreciation. Those examples are only in the exurbs and some other areas. 92126 is still in knifecatcher territory.

[Navydoc]

I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.

[Navydoc]

I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.

[Navydoc]

I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.

[Navydoc]

I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.

[Navydoc]

I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.

[Veritas]

It is nicer than saying dumb a$$.

[Veritas]

It is nicer than saying dumb a$$.

[Veritas]

It is nicer than saying dumb a$$.

[Veritas]

It is nicer than saying dumb a$$.

[Veritas]

It is nicer than saying dumb a$$.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Navydoc]I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.[/quote]

I agree actually.
Very much.
I am currently helping a friend look at places in 92126. It is currently the best selection of development in a small geographic where the market is one of the most perfect.
By perfect I mean that there are lots of houses with identical floorplans and relatively large percentage of distress sales. That means that you are dealing with a Wal-Mart effect. I have good insurance but deal with all my optical at Wal-Mart because they are dramatically cheaper than Kaiser (not interested in hearing your opinion on Kaiser).
When making offers there (Mira Mesa), I just take the lowest comp (usually a model match) and present it with my offer. Makes for a VERY buyer-centric market.

Whether or not my clients are fools for making offers is frankly irrelevant. They can totally afford a 30-year fixed and they can rent it out (should they need to down the road) for more than the price of mortgage.

They are getting a place they like which has the capacity to generate positive cash flow. I do not like to predicate value based on expectations of future profit, but these places are unlikely to continue to depreciate indefinitely. This is especially true considering their proximity to UCSD and positive cash flow capacity.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Navydoc]I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.[/quote]

I agree actually.
Very much.
I am currently helping a friend look at places in 92126. It is currently the best selection of development in a small geographic where the market is one of the most perfect.
By perfect I mean that there are lots of houses with identical floorplans and relatively large percentage of distress sales. That means that you are dealing with a Wal-Mart effect. I have good insurance but deal with all my optical at Wal-Mart because they are dramatically cheaper than Kaiser (not interested in hearing your opinion on Kaiser).
When making offers there (Mira Mesa), I just take the lowest comp (usually a model match) and present it with my offer. Makes for a VERY buyer-centric market.

Whether or not my clients are fools for making offers is frankly irrelevant. They can totally afford a 30-year fixed and they can rent it out (should they need to down the road) for more than the price of mortgage.

They are getting a place they like which has the capacity to generate positive cash flow. I do not like to predicate value based on expectations of future profit, but these places are unlikely to continue to depreciate indefinitely. This is especially true considering their proximity to UCSD and positive cash flow capacity.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Navydoc]I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.[/quote]

I agree actually.
Very much.
I am currently helping a friend look at places in 92126. It is currently the best selection of development in a small geographic where the market is one of the most perfect.
By perfect I mean that there are lots of houses with identical floorplans and relatively large percentage of distress sales. That means that you are dealing with a Wal-Mart effect. I have good insurance but deal with all my optical at Wal-Mart because they are dramatically cheaper than Kaiser (not interested in hearing your opinion on Kaiser).
When making offers there (Mira Mesa), I just take the lowest comp (usually a model match) and present it with my offer. Makes for a VERY buyer-centric market.

Whether or not my clients are fools for making offers is frankly irrelevant. They can totally afford a 30-year fixed and they can rent it out (should they need to down the road) for more than the price of mortgage.

They are getting a place they like which has the capacity to generate positive cash flow. I do not like to predicate value based on expectations of future profit, but these places are unlikely to continue to depreciate indefinitely. This is especially true considering their proximity to UCSD and positive cash flow capacity.

[urbanrealtor]

[quote=Navydoc]I’m not sure condescending is quite the right word, but the way we use the term implies someone who believes the market has bottomed despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

There may actually be nothing wrong with being a knife catcher in real estate in the future. Every person who buys an automobile, unless it’s a rare collector car, is buying a depreciating asset. I have a feeling that someday we may start to view buying a home as more similar to buying a car.[/quote]

I agree actually.
Very much.
I am currently helping a friend look at places in 92126. It is currently the best selection of development in a small geographic where the market is one of the most perfect.
By perfect I mean that there are lots of houses with identical floorplans and relatively large percentage of distress sales. That means that you are dealing with a Wal-Mart effect. I have good insurance but deal with all my optical at Wal-Mart because they are dramatically cheaper than Kaiser (not interested in hearing your opinion on Kaiser).
When making offers there (Mira Mesa), I just take the lowest comp (usually a model match) and present it with my offer. Makes for a VERY buyer-centric market.

Whether or not my clients are fools for making offers is frankly irrelevant. They can totally afford a 30-year fixed and they can rent it out (should they need to down the road) for more than the price of mortgage.

They are getting a place they like which has the capacity to generate positive cash flow. I do not like to predicate value based on expectations of future profit, but these places are unlikely to continue to depreciate indefinitely. This is especially true considering their proximity to UCSD and positive cash flow capacity.

[Author]

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