OT: Ukraine Explained (I think)

[FlyerInHi]

Seems to me like this is a European problem. Why are we taking ownership of something that was created in Brussels? Let the Europeans lead with the sanctions and sacrifices to their economies.

The Russians want a first among equals position to be eventually integrated into a greater Europe. But the western Europeans were seeking to draw Russia into Europe under their own terms rather than Russia’s.

So now we have a Russia that will seek its own way forward.

The Crimean pensioners doubled their pensions under Russia. Seems like a good deal for Crimea so far.

[Jazzman]

[quote=FlyerInHi]Seems to me like this is a European problem. Why are we taking ownership of something that was created in Brussels? Let the Europeans lead with the sanctions and sacrifices to their economies.

The Russians want a first among equals position to be eventually integrated into a greater Europe. But the western Europeans were seeking to draw Russia into Europe under their own terms rather than Russia’s.

So now we have a Russia that will seek its own way forward.

The Crimean pensioners doubled their pensions under Russia. Seems like a good deal for Crimea so far.[/quote]
It is on Europe’s borders, but it is also on NATO’s borders which is a US inspired entity. I’ve not heard that Russia wants to be integrated into Europe and there would likely be problems with that.

But whatever, it is amazing that after two world wars, followed by the Cold War, there are still these tensions and flare-ups. The Soviet threat has gone, Russia is no longer a super-power, and there seems to be a wish for a return to the good old bash Russia days. I’m not saying Russia is guiltless. I’m saying we are all complicit. We vote these politicians into power and they act like children; unable to resolve their differences, creating tensions, misleading, and then holding the electorate and tax payer to ransom. How dare they! They are public servants. We are the public and that makes them the servants. We pay their wages. And then there’s the problem of knuckleheads …is that part of the human condition as well? May be it all is ..I give up.

[FlyerInHi]

jazzman, I find that Russia now is not much different from Russia historically.

Russia always wanted to be part of Europe but it was always more backward and on the margin. Because of the relative backwardness, Russians have a chip on their shoulders.

But taken as whole, Russia is a great continental power and Russian leaders are very powerful. They have geopolitical aspirations.

It’s actually in Europe’s best interest to have Russia integrated economically and culturally within Europe. But Europe must give Russia a chairmanship position in order to achieve that goal (afterall, it’s the biggest country in land and population). That’s the biggest problem.

Otherwise, Russia will concentrate on creating a Eurasia sphere that it can lead. That will benefit China in counterbalancing American influence in the Pacific. If Europe won’t buy Russia’s fuels, China probably will. I think, so far, Russia holds the superior hand, and Europe will have to do something to draw Russia back to the West.

People just want to live in peace, work, trade and travel. Politicians have visions of grandeur and they like to play political chess.

All very interesting.

The small steps the US has taken on Ukraine make sense. I don’t think we should do much more, for now.

[all]

Russians are arrogant bunch. People want the convenience of modern toys, but no way they would accept to be ruled from Brussels. Never conquered, Eastern Roman Empire, Gagarin, blah, blah. They remind me of Americans a lot. Germans are arrogant when dealing with most, but they generally recognize potency of few other countries.

I was always wondering if people from China and India privately have the same attitude toward people from other cultures.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=all]Russians are arrogant bunch. People want the convenience of modern toys, but no way they would accept to be ruled from Brussels. Never conquered, Eastern Roman Empire, Gagarin, blah, blah. They remind me of Americans a lot. Germans are arrogant when dealing with most, but they generally recognize potency of few other countries.

I was always wondering if people from China and India privately have the same attitude toward people from other cultures.[/quote]

Interesting take.

I think that’s why, if Russia is to be integrated into Europe, Russia needs to be a offered a first among equals position. They would become the top dog in Europe, along with the Germans which would mean a realignment of power within a greater Europe. I doubt France and the UK would go for that. But is it wise to let Russia build a Eurasian block?

I think the Chinese feel as strong about their own culture. The Indians are probably softer because India, comprising of many independent kingdoms, was never as coherent an empire as China and Russia.

big countries inherently want to be the top dogs in their regions, if not the world. That cannot be stopped.

[The-Shoveler]

From the few bits of analysis I was hearing Russia does not have a lot going for it other than Oil and Gas exports (which most the developed world will be becoming less and less dependent on IMO), OK maybe weapon sales as well.
The more of these expenses Russia takes on the more desperate they are likely to become. I don’t think they have the financial strength to gain back what they once were and will likely collapse again.
But we live in interesting times.

[Jazzman]

In some senses Russia, west of the Urals is close to Europe, and as far back as Peter the Great, the influence is there. French was the court language in Tolstoy’s time, but the Soviet Union was by its nature isolationist. So there’s an historical, cultural, and racial connection. But I’ve never heard it mentioned that Russia was ever a contender for EU membership. Trade ties and closer diplomatic ties, yes. Even countries the size of Poland and Turkey needed to be weighed up in light of their relative sizes. Russia would just be too big.

Russians do get a bit of a bad rap in Europe. I don’t think they are anymore arrogant that other peoples (I spent five months in Russia and speak Russian), but many gained new-found wealth very quickly and probably flashed it around a little too much for European tastes.

The EU was set up to counter US influence, and Eurasia is to counter both. I think that says it all about insecurities.

The game changer will be if Putin is tempted to send troops into eastern Ukraine. I believe he wants to, but the outcome may be too unpredictable. From what I can glean from the media, the pro-Russian troublemakers are few in number, so hopefully the situation will die down. The Ukrainian government is actually doing the right thing by not intervening. So perhaps they’re not all the belligerent thugs we first assumed.

[FlyerInHi]

I like to read about Russia because I love the culture, the history, the pain and suffering the rise and fall of empires. So epic. But it’s definitely not the kind of culture you can enjoy like French or Italian.

I don’t think Russia will ever be part of the EU, but will it see its own interests aligned with those of Western Europe and give up its claims to world power?

I doubt Putin will send troops into Ukraine. He’s happy to see a chaotic Ukraine become a financial sinkhole for the EU. Quality of life in Ukraine will get worse before it gets better so it’s uncertain the new Kiev government will even survive. Putin will make a play later after he blames the West. Elections will need to be held as some point and Putin could even be successful in reinstalling a pro Russian government. For that he needs eastern Ukraine to stay part of the country.

Right now, the onus is on the EU to come up with the financial help it promised to turn Ukraine into a prosperous western leaning state.

[FlyerInHi]

Looks like it’s unfolding exactly like I predicted. Russia is turning to China.

I was talking to a German colleague… and Germans apparently don’t really trust Americans. They think we are engineering this to develop a European market for our natural gas.

The Germans are saying the CIA (and other western secret services) paid the Maidan protesters.

[all]

[quote=FlyerInHi]
The Germans are saying the CIA (and other western secret services) paid the Maidan protesters.[/quote]

Is that supposed to be a secret?

[The-Shoveler]

The way I understand it China really put the squeeze on Russia, which I think shows their desperation.

Even without the embargo etc… just taking over the expenses of running and securing these areas is a huge financial and resource drain.

This is mostly why Russia was doing well up until now, They got rid of all the red ink states.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=all][quote=FlyerInHi]
The Germans are saying the CIA (and other western secret services) paid the Maidan protesters.[/quote]

Is that supposed to be a secret?[/quote]

No. But it’s not like we’re innocent and benevolent here.
We have an active role in how things played out and are unfolding.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]The way I understand it China really put the squeeze on Russia, which I think shows their desperation.

Even without the embargo etc… just taking over the expenses of running and securing these areas is a huge financial and resource drain.
[/quote]

The details are still coming out but it sounds like Russia got a good deal on how the price of gas is pegged to oil.

the gas is to be delivered through pipeline . that can help China develop the western part of the country and keep growth going. Right now, Chinese merchants are very active in eastern Russia. Lots of potential for cross border trade

Not in our interests, but Russia and China might just be able to pull off a big Eurasia trading block with all the other little countries in the region.

Maybe we are better off with a Russia looking to the West and, along with Germany, having more say in European affairs.

[The-Shoveler]

Let them eat red Ink LOL.

Why the UK stayed out of the EU.

But in a way I think you are right, we have our own problems.

[FlyerInHi]

[quote=The-Shoveler]Let them eat red Ink LOL.

Why the UK stayed out of the EU.

But in a way I think you are right, we have our own problems.[/quote]

The UK is in the EU, but not in the Eurozone, mostly because of their financial industry. Good for the financial companies operating in London and by extension, the London upper middle class and higher who benefit from bubble house prices, but not so good for most Britons.

I think with Iraq, Afghanistan, etc…, now Ukraine, we picked the wrong fights… got distracted.

Ukraine is part of a chess game we’re playing. Gotta respect the Russians for being worthy opponents so far. Very interesting.

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