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Allan from Fallbrook.
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June 9, 2009 at 1:37 PM #413426June 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM #412738
Allan from Fallbrook
ParticipantAfx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.
June 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM #412974ParticipantAfx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.
June 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM #413219ParticipantAfx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.
June 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM #413285ParticipantAfx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.
June 9, 2009 at 1:39 PM #413431ParticipantAfx: There is quite a bit of ground between appeasement and invasion when dealing with a rational player (say Russia). You can bring everything from diplomatic to economic pressure to bear, including sanctions and embargoes.
As you find yourself moving further and further away from rationality (like with Iran), your options narrow. In the case of Iran, I think the best option is for change from within and the upcoming elections may wind up shocking a lot of people, including President I-Am-A-Dinner-Jacket.
In the case of North Korea, we’ve tried everything from bribery (Clinton, 1994) to bullying and then backpedaling (Bush, 2000 – 2008) to “soft power” and diplomacy (Obama). None of this works because Kim could give a shit what the US does or says, he knows that ultimately we won’t invade the North; we cannot afford to (monetarily or militarily). He is holding all the cards and he knows it. The only country that can truly bring meaningful pressure is China and they don’t have much of an incentive to do so, either. The North stands as a counterweight to the South and a reunified Korea and is a cat’s paw for Chinese policy against Japan.
The North is unlikely to invade the South, because Kim knows neither he nor his regime will survive that conflict. However, it remains a credible threat and one that can be amplified by continued ballistic missile testing and the threat of nukes.
It’s a game of high speed chicken and, right now, Kim has bigger balls than anyone playing.
June 9, 2009 at 1:42 PM #412743Participant[quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
June 9, 2009 at 1:42 PM #412979Participant[quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
June 9, 2009 at 1:42 PM #413224Participant[quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
June 9, 2009 at 1:42 PM #413289Participant[quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
June 9, 2009 at 1:42 PM #413436Participant[quote=Arraya]Appeasement is for pussies. Real men preemptively strike…[/quote]
Arraya: Strike what? I know you were joking, but have you seen how the North has laid out their weapons factories and the power stations supplying those factories and the various NK bases? It’s pretty frickin’ smart: Nearly all of the power stations in the North are small- to mid-size facilities and widely dispersed throughout the country. You’d have to launch an assload of airstrikes and you’d lose a lot of planes taking out their infrastructure and command & control network.
June 9, 2009 at 1:55 PM #412753surveyor
Participantnork options
One of my more radical solutions would be to blanket North Korea with tiny MP3 players with radios that accept South Korean news and radio stations. Haha. But among the more mundane solutions:
Put North Korea back on the state sponsored terrorism list (which Bush removed them from)
Stop any oil aid and frankly other aid. The Chinese will probably be forced to provide funds to North Korea in order to prop up the country. Otherwise it collapses and South Korea is their neighbor (and honestly, if they were smart they would do this anyways, because their freakin’ economy would go through the roof with South Korea next to them). I kind of like this option because it makes China spend money that it does not want to spend.
Regime change.
Push to have more economic trade between North Korea and its neighbors. Capitalism and economy is a very fundamental component to individual freedom and liberty. Once you are able to get that established, North Korea’s days as a dictatorship is finished. This part is easier said than done, but there might be a creative way to do this.
Start talks with Japan to have a missile defense system.
See? No wars in that format.
Personally I find it interesting that many people here would never “enable” bad behavior but are in favor of “enabling” North Korea… I realize it’s a country but there are certain principles in common. I think it’s better to starve the bear instead of making it bigger and stronger and more able to kill you.
June 9, 2009 at 1:55 PM #412989Participantnork options
One of my more radical solutions would be to blanket North Korea with tiny MP3 players with radios that accept South Korean news and radio stations. Haha. But among the more mundane solutions:
Put North Korea back on the state sponsored terrorism list (which Bush removed them from)
Stop any oil aid and frankly other aid. The Chinese will probably be forced to provide funds to North Korea in order to prop up the country. Otherwise it collapses and South Korea is their neighbor (and honestly, if they were smart they would do this anyways, because their freakin’ economy would go through the roof with South Korea next to them). I kind of like this option because it makes China spend money that it does not want to spend.
Regime change.
Push to have more economic trade between North Korea and its neighbors. Capitalism and economy is a very fundamental component to individual freedom and liberty. Once you are able to get that established, North Korea’s days as a dictatorship is finished. This part is easier said than done, but there might be a creative way to do this.
Start talks with Japan to have a missile defense system.
See? No wars in that format.
Personally I find it interesting that many people here would never “enable” bad behavior but are in favor of “enabling” North Korea… I realize it’s a country but there are certain principles in common. I think it’s better to starve the bear instead of making it bigger and stronger and more able to kill you.
June 9, 2009 at 1:55 PM #413234Participantnork options
One of my more radical solutions would be to blanket North Korea with tiny MP3 players with radios that accept South Korean news and radio stations. Haha. But among the more mundane solutions:
Put North Korea back on the state sponsored terrorism list (which Bush removed them from)
Stop any oil aid and frankly other aid. The Chinese will probably be forced to provide funds to North Korea in order to prop up the country. Otherwise it collapses and South Korea is their neighbor (and honestly, if they were smart they would do this anyways, because their freakin’ economy would go through the roof with South Korea next to them). I kind of like this option because it makes China spend money that it does not want to spend.
Regime change.
Push to have more economic trade between North Korea and its neighbors. Capitalism and economy is a very fundamental component to individual freedom and liberty. Once you are able to get that established, North Korea’s days as a dictatorship is finished. This part is easier said than done, but there might be a creative way to do this.
Start talks with Japan to have a missile defense system.
See? No wars in that format.
Personally I find it interesting that many people here would never “enable” bad behavior but are in favor of “enabling” North Korea… I realize it’s a country but there are certain principles in common. I think it’s better to starve the bear instead of making it bigger and stronger and more able to kill you.
June 9, 2009 at 1:55 PM #413298Participantnork options
One of my more radical solutions would be to blanket North Korea with tiny MP3 players with radios that accept South Korean news and radio stations. Haha. But among the more mundane solutions:
Put North Korea back on the state sponsored terrorism list (which Bush removed them from)
Stop any oil aid and frankly other aid. The Chinese will probably be forced to provide funds to North Korea in order to prop up the country. Otherwise it collapses and South Korea is their neighbor (and honestly, if they were smart they would do this anyways, because their freakin’ economy would go through the roof with South Korea next to them). I kind of like this option because it makes China spend money that it does not want to spend.
Regime change.
Push to have more economic trade between North Korea and its neighbors. Capitalism and economy is a very fundamental component to individual freedom and liberty. Once you are able to get that established, North Korea’s days as a dictatorship is finished. This part is easier said than done, but there might be a creative way to do this.
Start talks with Japan to have a missile defense system.
See? No wars in that format.
Personally I find it interesting that many people here would never “enable” bad behavior but are in favor of “enabling” North Korea… I realize it’s a country but there are certain principles in common. I think it’s better to starve the bear instead of making it bigger and stronger and more able to kill you.
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