OT: Predictions for 2016 Presidential Election

[bearishgurl]

[quote=poorgradstudent][quote=FlyerInHi]
All you have to do is listen to Spanish Language media. The opposition to Trump is strong. Don’t understand why the MSM says Nevada is in play.

Any predictions, anyone? Being right makes you a winner. ;)[/quote]

Whatever Nate Silver says.

I think with Nevada the remaining uncertainty is the fact Clinton hasn’t broken 50% in any polls. There are enough undecideds and Gary Johnson voters that if they broke hard for Trump at the end it could flip.

The media is portraying Pennsylvania as in play, but the polls there routinely show Clinton up by about 10. Unless the polls are very wrong, it’s going Clinton.[/quote]poorgradstudent, I just got back late last night from a 2-day/2-night precinct-walking blitz thru Clark County, NV with the Trump CA Strike team, which sent 4 busloads from LA/OC and 2 busloads from OAK to Reno on Friday. A TX Republican PAC generously funded our bus transportation and lodging and another *busload* arrived from CA by private vehicle.

We were warmly welcomed at the Las Vegas Trump HQ with a “Welcome CA Deplorables” sign where we were greeted by several tables of NV volunteers. We were treated to personal appearances by Ben Carson (Sat morn) and Rudy Guiliani (Sun morn) at Trump LV HQ where they were also conducting poll-watcher training meetings for volunteers. I met some great people (a few from SD).

My group of four precinct walkers hit three large subdivisions from Sat to Sun to primarily survey intent to vote. Saturday, our voters were largely Latino residing in a mixture of older tract homes as well as streets with ~1/2 AC lots. On Sunday, we worked solely in a very large over-55 SFR development. All in all, we saw dozens of Trump yard signs and chimney/second-story Trump banners as well as several “crooked Hillary” handmade posters on garage doors. All of the doors who answered to our group members (about 50%) on Saturday were polite and almost none of them had voted yet but intended to on election day. Most knew where their polling place was and a few had to be reminded with a door hanger. A few asked for extra door hangers to give away. Older residents frequently spoke Spanish only but a couple of them nodded enthusiastically when I stated I was a volunteer for the Trump campaign to get out the vote. I was able to speak enough Spanish to ask them if they knew where their polling place was and give them a door hanger with the address. The younger Latino residents also had not voted yet, but intended to. Since we were in the street wearing Trump T-shirts and hats all day, a passel of local Deplorables driving by in pool-service pickups, plumbing vans and landscaping pickups all stopped to give us a thumbs up and thank us for our efforts. So did front desk personnel, waitresses and bellhops. I saw numerous Trump bumper stickers (all over the back of the vehicle, actually) and nicely-outfitted Trump dogs. One voter came out from behind his high-walled backyard and told us that he named his new pitbull pup “Trump.”

In the senior-citizen ‘hood, there were a lot of TV’s going on and we got 3 doors slammed on us …. either they took one look at us and turned about-face or stated they didn’t want to have anything to do with politics (obviously suffering from “election fatigue”). We managed to sway one undecided to vote Trump. The vast majority who answered their doors (~50%) had already made their minds up to vote Trump and half had done so during NV’s 2 early in-person voting weeks in October. The rest already knew where their polling places were and most of this group stated they would vote in the middle of the day (to save time) and took door hangers from us with their polling places on them. One lady told me that her daughter was also precinct walking for Trump and gave her a stack of door hangers which she had been spreading around. On two occasions, the senior-citizen couple got into a fight because (1) the wife said she was only voting Trump cuz her husband wanted her to and (2) the husband took one look at us and told us to get off his property and then his wife ran down the sidewalk after us and wanted a flyer and thanked us for our efforts, lol …..

btw, our ~400-strong CA Strike Team of “Deplorables” consisted of Chinese, Filipino, Taiwanese, a few Russians, Lebanese, Iranians, Hispanics, Caucasians, African Americans and all combinations thereof. We also had 3 attorneys (that I know of) one physician, several nurses, lots of IT people as well as outside salespeople and public school employees. I would say that half of them were “retired.” There was also a NV college-student volunteer group who split up to walk precincts. :=0

We were the second to the last group of the CA Strike Team to leave for home on Sunday and at least 75 NV volunteers were still there at HQ at that time busily calling voters with their mini laptops and headsets.

Oh, and I just learned a few minutes ago from a friend that Longtime Dem Supporter and Donor Steve Wynn has now strongly “intimated” to Fox’s Neil Cavuto this afternoon that he has decided to vote for Trump at the 11th hour …. for a variety of very good reasons. Yes, even though he professes to be longtime friends of Bill and Hill, lol …. I hope his (now public) announcement influences his many thousands of “worker bees” in LV and Reno to likewise vote for Trump.

The “fat lady” has now begun warming up her pipes, folks . . . may the show go on!

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]BG, you gonna to be very dissapointed.

Tomorrow, I’m hosting a little election watch party at my apartment. We’re going to have global elite fare — champagne, caviar, sushi. maybe a papaya shrimp salad… You know, the same stuff Trump serves at his super model parties.[/quote]

Umm . . .

Methinks that FIH/brian (our “in-house transplant” from SD to LV) has been living in a self-imposed “condo bubble.” He seems to be blissfully unaware what is actually going on amongst the masses of the “unwashed deplorables” in the streets of his esteemed (adopted) city and county :=0

[Anonymous]

The Confirmation Bias Bus Tour sounds like so much fun.

[FlyerInHi]

NV will go for Hillary. Early Hispanic voting is strongest ever.
I’ve been following NV closely. We’ll the answer tomorrow.

BG, you know what they say about computers… garbage in, garbage out. Will you reprogram your computer if you’re proven wrong? I will reprogram mine if I’m wrong.

[svelte]

I’ve been following the swing states pretty carefully too, and here is my prediction:

FL – Clinton
OH – Trump
PA – Clinton
MI – Clinton
NH – ? very unclear to me
NC – Trump
NV – Clinton
WI – Clinton
IA – Trump
VA – Clinton
ME – Clinton
AZ – Trump
CO – Clinton
NM – Clinton

A couple of those predictions go against current polling, but mail-in ballot stats influenced my prediction (mainly NV and FL).

And so it goes.

In mere hours, we’ll know if we’re led by Clown 1 or Clown 2.

[ltsddd]

If Clinton takes FL then it’s pretty much over and NH is inconsequential. On the other hand if FL goes to trump, the election may come down to the 4 votes from NH.

[(former)FormerSanDiegan]

The BG trip with CA deplorables going to NV campaign reminded me of something …

What the hell is Bernie Sanders doing all over billboards in California promoting a proposition in California that impacts Californians.

Did he move here or is he just getting paid as a spokeman ?

[ucodegen]

One prediction I can give on the election, is that voter turnout will be higher than normal. I saw the election rolls of voters and there were many mail-ins listed on the rolls, many many many more than I have ever seen. The polls where I went to before lunch were not that busy, particularly when compared to the registrar’s lines.

As for accuracy of polls – it should be interesting. A group of voters that normally doesn’t participate seems to be voting. Which group that is – I can’t tell. It may split evenly along party lines — or not.

[temeculaguy]

[quote=temeculaguy]Kinda early for predictions but i say trump wins primary and election based on the current situation. He is in the lead and has the experts baffled without spending much.

Here’s the rub fellow piggs, most Americans hate politicians and know they are being lied to. Trump may say offensive or even stupid things but even the stupid things feel more genuine than the others. I liked Kasich for his healthcare, Christie for numerous reasons and Rubio for many other reasons. But honestly my favorites were Fiorina and the Doc because they weren’t politicians. Trump is another animal altogether, he says what people think, but afraid to say it. Voting is private, polls aren’t. My thoughts are Trump beats the polls and the polls are in his favor.

Evil as it may seem, after San Bernadino, I saw cair on TV and was sick to my stomach, then saw Obama (who I voted for twice) and was sick again. Cair should be on TV snitching off anyone who even looks radicalized.

This site is a collections of intellectuals and economics geeks, but do not for a minute think we are a majority. Plus Hillary will lose the female vote, I know no women who like her. She stayed with a man that cheated more than a professional cyclist just for public opinion, that will bite her. Funny thing is, I voted for him too, twice, but I have no respect for a woman who stayed with him, he deserved to be an alimony payer despite his attributes.[/quote]

Wow, once again i failed to place a bet in vegas or buy a stock. At some point I will trust my own analysis.

[FlyerInHi]

That was a good call temecula guy.

I think i have a pretty good pulse of the country. But I missed the disaffection in the industrial east/Midwest.

What you said is true and affected Florida where the the old folks voted for Trump. But in California and new-economy cities and states such as Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Dallas County, even AZ, economics and demographics overcame the Trump factors.

Despite her shortcomings, Hillary did better than Obama in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and of course California. I think that Trump is the last stand of the old guard.

[bearishgurl]

Well temeculaguy, if you’re reading this thread, it appears you called the 2016 presidential election early on. I did also, but not as early as you, cuz I wasn’t really paying attention to it until the end of Feb 2016.

However, you didn’t stick around to “take the heat” from our resident passel of vocal, ultra-lib Piggs . . . simply for supporting Trump’s candidacy. Sorry you missed out on that :=0

I would surmise that if I were as busy as you are, I wouldn’t have stuck around here, either :=]

[bearishgurl]

[quote=FlyerInHi]That was a good call temecula guy.

I think i have a pretty good pulse of the country. But I missed the disaffection in the industrial east/Midwest.

What you said is true and affected Florida where the the old folks voted for Trump. But in California and new-economy cities and states such as Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Dallas County, even AZ, economics and demographics overcame the Trump factors.

Despite her shortcomings, Hillary did better than Obama in Georgia, Texas, Arizona, and of course California. I think that Trump is the last stand of the old guard.[/quote]Um, FIH?? Not sure where you are getting your info from but Trump WON all those states but CA … and CO, where he lost by 2.8%. It doesn’t matter what happened in the election (and re-election) of Obama. He is on his way out and so is most of his “legacy.” And Trump would have won CO but for (mostly) “progressive” millenials moving in its most populous counties (with JOBS) since the legalization of MJ (1/1/14) and registering to vote. The exceptions were El Paso (county seat: CO Sprs, which has a high “evangelical” population) and Weld (county seat: Greeley, which has a very high illegal immigrant population which has been stretching the gratuitousness of local charities there for decades). Those two populous counties voted Trump. HRC only won Pueblo County by .2% (199 votes), which is heavily (majority?) Latino and where the bulk of legal MJ is cultivated! CO has the possibility of reverting back to red in the next election cycle.

http://www.politico.com/2016-election/results/map/president/colorado/

The reasons are because CO state and local gubments are beyond fed up with the cost of “policing” the sales and use of recreational MJ, in spite of the public coffers its 35% + “sales tax” brings in. The law also created drivers on (often icy) mountainous roads who were impaired and a danger to everyone, sometimes heavily so and also mostly uninsured or relying on Medicaid.

The truth is, new incoming millenials just starting out have been priced out of rent in CO’s blue counties (the counties with CU/CSU and most of the good jobs) for almost 10 years now. Only the well-established boomers from states with higher-priced housing can afford to “retire” in CO and often not even in the county of their choice due to prohibitive cost so they better hurry. Rent and RE prices in most of CO are higher than most of CA except within the priciest coastal enclaves. The areas with cheaper rent/RE prices in the Denver metro area are trailer-park-like transient h@llholes which have beat cops parked on every corner and are an onerous commute to major job centers (especially in the winter). For these reasons, millenials who have not doubled and tripled up in a house/unit with a long term lease that they can live with (or are part of a dual-income couple, BOTH permanently gainfully employed FT) are not going to be able to make it long-term in the Denver area, Boulder County or Larimer County (county seat: Ft Collins).

Once this shift takes place in CO (millenials leave for the likes of [more affordable] KS City and the boomers move in while the getting is good), CO will revert back to red and vote to repeal their short-sighted law to legalize recreational MJ.

I’m intimately familiar with all four corners of CO and everything in between, having lived there for ~10 years in my youth (which was a lo-o-o-o-ong time ago :=0) and making 1-4 road trips through CO nearly every year since then. I’ve spent 35 days there in the last five years in the rockies alone. I was last in CO 2.5 months ago, staying for 6 nights in 3 different counties. I have a full and complete understanding of its people, its culture and the (often stark) differences between its counties.

[FlyerInHi]

BG, it does matter that Hillary did better than Obama in new-economy states.
The old economy turned against Hillary out of misplaced hopey changey to the old days.

Florida (old republican retirees) and the blue wall old-economy delivered a win for Trump.

The fact that Hillary was not inspiring but carried CO speaks volumes to Trump not being able to overcome new-economy demographics.

Show me where I’m wrong…. and BTW, who did your millennial kids vote for?

[njtosd]

[quote=FlyerInHi] I think that Trump is the last stand of the old guard.[/quote]

According to Pew Research:

Clinton received a lower share of the vote among young voters (ages 18-29) than Obama received in 2012 or 2008. Young adults preferred Clinton over Trump by a wide 55%-37% margin; by comparison, Obama had a 60%-36% advantage over Romney in 2012 and a 66%-32% advantage over McCain in 2008.

http://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2016/11/09/behind-trumps-victory-divisions-by-race-gender-education/

At least according to these date, the Democrats are losing ground among the 18 – 29 age group and Republicans are gaining.

[FlyerInHi]

Hillary got lower overall turnout among the young because young people don’t vote unless the candidate is inspirational. If you want to believe that republicans are gaining, then so be it.

But Hillary did proportionally better than 2012 Obama in new-economy states and metropolitan areas

Southern California is new economy. You may support Trump but you’re not in the majority. The people you talk to don’t reflect where you live.

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