OT – High Gas Prices to Kill the Exurbs?

[temeculaguy]

[quote=paramount]Facts on Temecula-Murrieta area commuting:

*A survey conducted by planning agencies in Riverside and San Diego counties found that more than half of Temecula-Murrieta-French Valley households had at least one person commuting outside the county. For them, the average drive time was one hour.

*Forbes Magazine recently ranked the area first in its list of America’s most unhealthy commutes, beating out every other major metropolitan area in the country, as Inland area drivers breathe the unhealthiest air and have the highest rate of fatal auto accidents per capita. Gas siphoning has also been noted as a problem for vehicles left unattended in the region.

*Workers who live and work in this city: 39.7%

I think when people live in an area for a long period of time, and they are happy living there perspectives become a bit skewed.[/quote]

Unfortunately these are not really facts, most piggies love analyzing data, so if you are bored, here’s the 104 page pdf of that study. I already saw the problems with the study and that is why I used the raw data and made my own percentages, however the newspapers don’t look very deep and that is where you got your percentages.

http://www.i15irp.com/Appendix%20B_i15irp_0307.pdf

One particular item of note is on page 8, where the actual city of temecula has more jobs per household than the I-15 San Diego corridor as a whole, more than escondido, more than vista, but less than san marcos.

But the real problem with the study is dividing modern traffic counts into year 2000 census data in order to determine percentages. Using 2005 traffic paterns (which is where the 29k commuters numbers come from) then factoring those into census 2000 population figures for an area that grew at a rate as fast an any area in the country is just bad math. The used temec’s 2000 pop of 57k and murr’s as 44k, and similar innacurate numbers for the other sw county communities. All of the populations need to be roughly doubled. (they did however say that 40% of the commuters don’t go more than 30 miles, because I go one offramp away, I’ve commuted to another county). Another huge problem with saying only 39% of those that live in the city work in the city is that people with a commute of 5 miles, likely work in another city or unincorporated area. Both Scardey and I live in the unicorporated areas, of course I can wak to the city, I’m 150 yards from the city, but technically, I’m crossing municipal boundaries for not only work but gas and food. There are people who live in Poway, work in Rancho Bernardo and they technically don’t live in the city they work in, one is the City of S.D., while the other is the city of Poway.

But the real reason these so called fact are produced, these are produced by and for government agencies that want to support sales tax votes, these are the mass transit and carpool lane people. This is SanDag and Wrcog, these studies are designed for long term planning but also to create sound bytes for the media to write stories, helping the next ballot measure for their 1/2 cent sales tax. Paramount, you of all people know that you can only trust the government so much when it comes to justifying tax increases.

BTW, the forbes thing is not a sw county thing, it’s ratings are more about the region itself, I’ll give you that, an hour north, the riverside/san bernadino areas are horrible, bad air, bad commutes. The 91 is probably the worst freeway I know of.

If you have videotaped your commute in the rain, I can only say one thing, you need to move. You need to be happy and you aren’t. It is true that happy people tend to overlook things that other people don’t, guilty as charged. But the reverse is true, unhappy people tend to exaggerate the negative, then they start thinking everyone is siphoning their gas.

[Arraya]

[quote=CONCHO][quote=Arraya]LOL The Russians oil production peaked two years ago…
[/quote]

LOL oil prices peaked two years ago too. Why spend money pumping it, refining it, putting it in tankers when the price is falling? Wait till the price hits $120/barrel in 6 months and you’ll see their production ramp right back up to where it was in 2008. Gold mines slow down when the price falls and ramp up when it increases, it’s the same in the oil biz too.[/quote]

your time line is off they started decreasing before the price peaked. But that is beside the point. I will say it again:

We have 150 years of observing oil wells peak and decline, even in Russia. We have also seen, towns, regions and countries peak and decline. It’s no secret that the US peaked in 71, Iran 74, Mexico 2003(dropping like a rock), so forth and so on. Central Texas is littered with ghost towns that have been sucked dry. We have not made a major discover since the sixties.

The only major players today with spare capacity are SA and Iraq(Saddam was not good at pumping oil). Maybe Russia But it’s kind of irrelevant to the big picture.

Also, peak oil is about maximum FLOW RATE and nothing more, Obviously if oil was abiotic it would still have a maximum flow rate.

Interestingly, peak oil seems to be a double secret reverse conspiracy. It’s categorically denied by official sources. They claim like 2025 onward. There is even ample evidence of the Bush admin putting pressure on agencies to fudge the numbers to the optimistic side – to “not panic financial markets”. The greens claim it is an oil company conspiracy to get high oil prices, those on the right claim it is to implement socialism and official sources deny it. Pay no attention to the hands of texas oil men all over the corpse of Iraq – which could be the new Saudi Arabia.

[Arraya]

[quote=CONCHO][quote=Arraya]LOL The Russians oil production peaked two years ago…
[/quote]

LOL oil prices peaked two years ago too. Why spend money pumping it, refining it, putting it in tankers when the price is falling? Wait till the price hits $120/barrel in 6 months and you’ll see their production ramp right back up to where it was in 2008. Gold mines slow down when the price falls and ramp up when it increases, it’s the same in the oil biz too.[/quote]

your time line is off they started decreasing before the price peaked. But that is beside the point. I will say it again:

We have 150 years of observing oil wells peak and decline, even in Russia. We have also seen, towns, regions and countries peak and decline. It’s no secret that the US peaked in 71, Iran 74, Mexico 2003(dropping like a rock), so forth and so on. Central Texas is littered with ghost towns that have been sucked dry. We have not made a major discover since the sixties.

The only major players today with spare capacity are SA and Iraq(Saddam was not good at pumping oil). Maybe Russia But it’s kind of irrelevant to the big picture.

Also, peak oil is about maximum FLOW RATE and nothing more, Obviously if oil was abiotic it would still have a maximum flow rate.

Interestingly, peak oil seems to be a double secret reverse conspiracy. It’s categorically denied by official sources. They claim like 2025 onward. There is even ample evidence of the Bush admin putting pressure on agencies to fudge the numbers to the optimistic side – to “not panic financial markets”. The greens claim it is an oil company conspiracy to get high oil prices, those on the right claim it is to implement socialism and official sources deny it. Pay no attention to the hands of texas oil men all over the corpse of Iraq – which could be the new Saudi Arabia.

[Arraya]

[quote=CONCHO][quote=Arraya]LOL The Russians oil production peaked two years ago…
[/quote]

LOL oil prices peaked two years ago too. Why spend money pumping it, refining it, putting it in tankers when the price is falling? Wait till the price hits $120/barrel in 6 months and you’ll see their production ramp right back up to where it was in 2008. Gold mines slow down when the price falls and ramp up when it increases, it’s the same in the oil biz too.[/quote]

your time line is off they started decreasing before the price peaked. But that is beside the point. I will say it again:

We have 150 years of observing oil wells peak and decline, even in Russia. We have also seen, towns, regions and countries peak and decline. It’s no secret that the US peaked in 71, Iran 74, Mexico 2003(dropping like a rock), so forth and so on. Central Texas is littered with ghost towns that have been sucked dry. We have not made a major discover since the sixties.

The only major players today with spare capacity are SA and Iraq(Saddam was not good at pumping oil). Maybe Russia But it’s kind of irrelevant to the big picture.

Also, peak oil is about maximum FLOW RATE and nothing more, Obviously if oil was abiotic it would still have a maximum flow rate.

Interestingly, peak oil seems to be a double secret reverse conspiracy. It’s categorically denied by official sources. They claim like 2025 onward. There is even ample evidence of the Bush admin putting pressure on agencies to fudge the numbers to the optimistic side – to “not panic financial markets”. The greens claim it is an oil company conspiracy to get high oil prices, those on the right claim it is to implement socialism and official sources deny it. Pay no attention to the hands of texas oil men all over the corpse of Iraq – which could be the new Saudi Arabia.

[Arraya]

[quote=CONCHO][quote=Arraya]LOL The Russians oil production peaked two years ago…
[/quote]

LOL oil prices peaked two years ago too. Why spend money pumping it, refining it, putting it in tankers when the price is falling? Wait till the price hits $120/barrel in 6 months and you’ll see their production ramp right back up to where it was in 2008. Gold mines slow down when the price falls and ramp up when it increases, it’s the same in the oil biz too.[/quote]

your time line is off they started decreasing before the price peaked. But that is beside the point. I will say it again:

We have 150 years of observing oil wells peak and decline, even in Russia. We have also seen, towns, regions and countries peak and decline. It’s no secret that the US peaked in 71, Iran 74, Mexico 2003(dropping like a rock), so forth and so on. Central Texas is littered with ghost towns that have been sucked dry. We have not made a major discover since the sixties.

The only major players today with spare capacity are SA and Iraq(Saddam was not good at pumping oil). Maybe Russia But it’s kind of irrelevant to the big picture.

Also, peak oil is about maximum FLOW RATE and nothing more, Obviously if oil was abiotic it would still have a maximum flow rate.

Interestingly, peak oil seems to be a double secret reverse conspiracy. It’s categorically denied by official sources. They claim like 2025 onward. There is even ample evidence of the Bush admin putting pressure on agencies to fudge the numbers to the optimistic side – to “not panic financial markets”. The greens claim it is an oil company conspiracy to get high oil prices, those on the right claim it is to implement socialism and official sources deny it. Pay no attention to the hands of texas oil men all over the corpse of Iraq – which could be the new Saudi Arabia.

[Arraya]

[quote=CONCHO][quote=Arraya]LOL The Russians oil production peaked two years ago…
[/quote]

LOL oil prices peaked two years ago too. Why spend money pumping it, refining it, putting it in tankers when the price is falling? Wait till the price hits $120/barrel in 6 months and you’ll see their production ramp right back up to where it was in 2008. Gold mines slow down when the price falls and ramp up when it increases, it’s the same in the oil biz too.[/quote]

your time line is off they started decreasing before the price peaked. But that is beside the point. I will say it again:

We have 150 years of observing oil wells peak and decline, even in Russia. We have also seen, towns, regions and countries peak and decline. It’s no secret that the US peaked in 71, Iran 74, Mexico 2003(dropping like a rock), so forth and so on. Central Texas is littered with ghost towns that have been sucked dry. We have not made a major discover since the sixties.

The only major players today with spare capacity are SA and Iraq(Saddam was not good at pumping oil). Maybe Russia But it’s kind of irrelevant to the big picture.

Also, peak oil is about maximum FLOW RATE and nothing more, Obviously if oil was abiotic it would still have a maximum flow rate.

Interestingly, peak oil seems to be a double secret reverse conspiracy. It’s categorically denied by official sources. They claim like 2025 onward. There is even ample evidence of the Bush admin putting pressure on agencies to fudge the numbers to the optimistic side – to “not panic financial markets”. The greens claim it is an oil company conspiracy to get high oil prices, those on the right claim it is to implement socialism and official sources deny it. Pay no attention to the hands of texas oil men all over the corpse of Iraq – which could be the new Saudi Arabia.

[paramount]

[quote=temeculaguy]It is true that happy people tend to overlook things that other people don’t, guilty as charged. But the reverse is true, unhappy people tend to exaggerate the negative, then they start thinking everyone is siphoning their gas.[/quote]

That’s the thing though, I’m not unhappy in Temecula.

But I see Temecula through clear eyes for what it is….and isn’t.

Temecula exists in large part due to the slow growth movement in San Diego County that were voted on about 20 years ago.

If it weren’t for San Diego and Orange Counties, Temecula would barely be on the map.

Regardless, it is what it is.

Temecula is a bedroom community, I’ve lived in Temecula long enough to know that.

The high paying jobs are largely in San Diego and Orange County; that is unless your the City Manager of Temecula who makes almost as much as the President of the United States.

[paramount]

[quote=temeculaguy]It is true that happy people tend to overlook things that other people don’t, guilty as charged. But the reverse is true, unhappy people tend to exaggerate the negative, then they start thinking everyone is siphoning their gas.[/quote]

That’s the thing though, I’m not unhappy in Temecula.

But I see Temecula through clear eyes for what it is….and isn’t.

Temecula exists in large part due to the slow growth movement in San Diego County that were voted on about 20 years ago.

If it weren’t for San Diego and Orange Counties, Temecula would barely be on the map.

Regardless, it is what it is.

Temecula is a bedroom community, I’ve lived in Temecula long enough to know that.

The high paying jobs are largely in San Diego and Orange County; that is unless your the City Manager of Temecula who makes almost as much as the President of the United States.

[paramount]

[quote=temeculaguy]It is true that happy people tend to overlook things that other people don’t, guilty as charged. But the reverse is true, unhappy people tend to exaggerate the negative, then they start thinking everyone is siphoning their gas.[/quote]

That’s the thing though, I’m not unhappy in Temecula.

But I see Temecula through clear eyes for what it is….and isn’t.

Temecula exists in large part due to the slow growth movement in San Diego County that were voted on about 20 years ago.

If it weren’t for San Diego and Orange Counties, Temecula would barely be on the map.

Regardless, it is what it is.

Temecula is a bedroom community, I’ve lived in Temecula long enough to know that.

The high paying jobs are largely in San Diego and Orange County; that is unless your the City Manager of Temecula who makes almost as much as the President of the United States.

[paramount]

[quote=temeculaguy]It is true that happy people tend to overlook things that other people don’t, guilty as charged. But the reverse is true, unhappy people tend to exaggerate the negative, then they start thinking everyone is siphoning their gas.[/quote]

That’s the thing though, I’m not unhappy in Temecula.

But I see Temecula through clear eyes for what it is….and isn’t.

Temecula exists in large part due to the slow growth movement in San Diego County that were voted on about 20 years ago.

If it weren’t for San Diego and Orange Counties, Temecula would barely be on the map.

Regardless, it is what it is.

Temecula is a bedroom community, I’ve lived in Temecula long enough to know that.

The high paying jobs are largely in San Diego and Orange County; that is unless your the City Manager of Temecula who makes almost as much as the President of the United States.

[paramount]

[quote=temeculaguy]It is true that happy people tend to overlook things that other people don’t, guilty as charged. But the reverse is true, unhappy people tend to exaggerate the negative, then they start thinking everyone is siphoning their gas.[/quote]

That’s the thing though, I’m not unhappy in Temecula.

But I see Temecula through clear eyes for what it is….and isn’t.

Temecula exists in large part due to the slow growth movement in San Diego County that were voted on about 20 years ago.

If it weren’t for San Diego and Orange Counties, Temecula would barely be on the map.

Regardless, it is what it is.

Temecula is a bedroom community, I’ve lived in Temecula long enough to know that.

The high paying jobs are largely in San Diego and Orange County; that is unless your the City Manager of Temecula who makes almost as much as the President of the United States.

[Aecetia]

It is clear to me that TG knows more about Temecula than the City Manager. He should be in charge. He is their biggest promoter. I also agree with him about being happy where you live and in the work you do. If not, all around you will suffer.

I live out in the sticks and do not have to commute to work any more, but when I did, I tried to make the most of my drive by listening to programs I wanted to hear during the drive. I also enjoyed watching the seasons change during the drive. At one time La Mesa was considered a long drive from San Diego. I guess it is all relative.

Those who live in Temecula, but work elsewhere will find a way if gas prices go crazy, either by car pooling or some other arrangement with their job. I do not see it turning into a ghost town.

[Aecetia]

It is clear to me that TG knows more about Temecula than the City Manager. He should be in charge. He is their biggest promoter. I also agree with him about being happy where you live and in the work you do. If not, all around you will suffer.

I live out in the sticks and do not have to commute to work any more, but when I did, I tried to make the most of my drive by listening to programs I wanted to hear during the drive. I also enjoyed watching the seasons change during the drive. At one time La Mesa was considered a long drive from San Diego. I guess it is all relative.

Those who live in Temecula, but work elsewhere will find a way if gas prices go crazy, either by car pooling or some other arrangement with their job. I do not see it turning into a ghost town.

[Aecetia]

It is clear to me that TG knows more about Temecula than the City Manager. He should be in charge. He is their biggest promoter. I also agree with him about being happy where you live and in the work you do. If not, all around you will suffer.

I live out in the sticks and do not have to commute to work any more, but when I did, I tried to make the most of my drive by listening to programs I wanted to hear during the drive. I also enjoyed watching the seasons change during the drive. At one time La Mesa was considered a long drive from San Diego. I guess it is all relative.

Those who live in Temecula, but work elsewhere will find a way if gas prices go crazy, either by car pooling or some other arrangement with their job. I do not see it turning into a ghost town.

[Aecetia]

It is clear to me that TG knows more about Temecula than the City Manager. He should be in charge. He is their biggest promoter. I also agree with him about being happy where you live and in the work you do. If not, all around you will suffer.

I live out in the sticks and do not have to commute to work any more, but when I did, I tried to make the most of my drive by listening to programs I wanted to hear during the drive. I also enjoyed watching the seasons change during the drive. At one time La Mesa was considered a long drive from San Diego. I guess it is all relative.

Those who live in Temecula, but work elsewhere will find a way if gas prices go crazy, either by car pooling or some other arrangement with their job. I do not see it turning into a ghost town.

[Author]

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