OT: bearishgurl should clean up her act or go

[ucodegen]

[quote=phaster]
“Brave New World” a novel written in the early 1930’s described a future where the masses are lacking the ability to think critically yet basically have an infinite amount of distractions (like perhaps “FaceBook” and “Twitter”), while those further up the food chain (i.e. the 1%) are shown to revel in a consumption and pleasure lifestyle

just sayin’ if “Piggington forums” (where discussions about “critical thoughts” happen on occasion) were transported into a “Brave New World” universe, it might be a regional bridge/oasis between the majority WITHOUT wealth or some critical-thoughts and the 1% WITH wealth in addition to an introspection ability

so wondering would a three sentence response (like this) blatantly written trying to be insightful and succinct, get an upvote?[/quote]Depends on how far into the Brave New World we are… or the ‘New World Order’.. Would it also mean that those with critical thought could use it to succeed among a world of lemmings? Or would the lemmings turn cattle stampede and run the thinker into the ground.

Would critical thought and dissenting opinion be made criminal? After all, in the Brave New World – all you need to do is the same as every other lemming.

[Coronita]

[phaster blah blah rant]
upon reflection my excuse for a proclivity of using fact based zingers is caused by formidable years spent sitting through various theology (parochial school) and physics (university) lectures and trying to reconcile the two schools of thought, which admittedly in practice makes for unique analysis given each discipline has at its basis diametrically opposed ways of analyzing issues (i.e. belief vs logic)
[/phaster]

News flash: none of the things you post is “factual”. You cut, copy, paste articles you seem fit to “support” whatever your opinion is. And the bottom line is, none of your sht your are shoveling moves the needle for anyone’s wallet. You’ve wasted your life and time doing whatever the heck motivates you. You’re not trying to reconcile your thoughts. You have an opinion that you’re married to. And the moment someone disagrees you pile on a boatload of clippings of internet articles as the defacto god’s truth, because obviously everything you read on the internet must be true.

People that disagree, you keep beating the “sky is fallen, end of the world” crap, and then “you’re an idiot” crap….Lol, the same crap you whine about how everyone else is doing. Pot, meet kettle.

Go chase after a public pension crisis to your heart’s content, which is now what you’ve got your head so wrapped up again, just like you did peak oil. After all, being wrong about peak oil, you need to find another windmill to chase after…

You’ll be wrong again. There will be no crisis. Pensions will get re-negotiated, contract laws will be changed, pension holders will take a bath. Just like it happened in the private sector, just like it happened in places like Detroit. No nuclear meltdown, certainly not going to happen before you’re dead because of old age. And once again, all your posts about all opinions about the end of the world will be wrong. again. You can post all you want, you’re entitled to your opinion, and you certainly aren’t going to change mine, especially with your terrible track record.
And certainly, I’ve become your object of reply ever since I disagreed with your wacko opinion of the end of the world.

And if I recall, this all started with one post from someone about a Vanguard Muni fund, asking about opinions. Which, among someone of us, we said we had and it wasn’t bad, but don’t expect huge returns. You jumped right into that thread and hijacked it with your bullshit doomsayer pension crisis posts, despite no one giving a shit about the thread you started yourself about it. And yes, that did annoy me because just like some (cough) other posters(cough), I was like why the fck do you want to turn this thread into your windmill chasing pension crisis crap again? You went further to flood the thread, again originally about the Vanguard fund, with your crap about a pension crisis. Go revisit that thread. No one else responded to your “enlightening opinion” about a nuclear meltdown. People kept asking questions, about “what are the returns so far”, what are they invested in etc.
I responded to you simply saying, well it takes a long time for things to break down, and when they do, usually there’s some government intervention. Then you went off the deep end of making an ASSumption that I’m heavily invested in bonds. The truth is I have $40,000 in bonds instead of cash, and like I said, it’s not even close to be “heavily invested” in one thing. Thankfully, I’m not listening to you for any financial advice. Otherwise that $40,000 probably would still be earning 0.00000001% in that liquid savings account, like it probably is for you. My ASSumption is that people like you who are so afraid of everything, that think the sky is falling everywhere, ends up leaving their money in a savings or their mattress. How far off am I from the truth, in your case? I’m certainly allowed to be off, since you certainly were way off with me.

The interesting part accuse me of saying I’m an expert. I’ve never claimed to be. Meanwhile you keep running off about peak oil and public pension crisis. We get it. You’re a doomsayer, and the end of the world is going to happen. The sky is falling. Good luck with that one. How’s that worked out for your financial well being so far?

This isn’t about having a dissenting opinion. This is perfect example of you having an opinion to the point that you’re so convicted of it, that anyone that says anything to the contrary, you go off the deep end trying to convince others you are right..to the point that you end up being an asshole…And most people would probably just say whatever. Me, I can reciprocate that and multiply that by a factor of 100.

Your original opinions, which all they are are interesting, crossed into “wacko” by the shear obsession with one thing, and then rubbing your nose and bombarding people who don’t subscribe to your doomsayer mentality is exactly what you accuse others of doing. And then hijacking other threads with your pension nuclear meltdown drivel you keep posting about. Followed up with an obsession with people that disagree with you. Why you bother, I have no idea why. Mental illness maybe?

I mean, if you’re so fascinated with peak oil an public pension crisis, why don’t you start your own blog dedicated to it? I’m sure there are plenty of people that share your view of doom and gloom. You shouldn’t have a problem finding eyeballs, if that’s your motivation. Or maybe you already did, and you’re just trying to get eyeballs?

It’s kinda funny that a few of you are grouping together in a gang, like “we’re the dissenting opinion” and we’ve been “victimized” by folks on this blog.

No one is being a dick to you guys because of your opinion itself. Some of us are being a dick to you because we’re sick of you trying to shovel your unsolicited opinion up our asses religiously, and trying to back it up with what you think are facts, but in most cases editorials, clippings taken out of context, and/or flat out lies, and even hijacking threads to push your agenda. You certainly didn’t like it when some of us started to do the same thing as an example of own medicine…

[Coronita]

.

[Coronita]

Phaster, speaking of peak oil…
Hey look, I can google things and cut, copy, and paste too. Because you know if you read it on the internet, it must be true!

Here’s One Sign That ‘Peak Oil’ Is Dead
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-09-12/here-s-one-sign-that-peak-oil-is-dead

Oh look, another article about Peak Oil being dead
http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-peak-oil-predictions-haven-t-come-true-1411937788

And another
http://www.wsj.com/articles/peak-oil-debunked-again-1417739810

I’m a control-x control-c and control-v master now…

Seven myths used to debunk peak oil, debunked

I’ve conducted extensive research. It was part of my PhD.
Let me google that for ya!
http://lmgtfy.com/?q=Peak+oil+debunked

Time to short oil when it’s $45/gallon… That must be it!!!!

Time to put on my…

Nice repeat of those pictures about peak oil BTW. They certainly look familiar, don’t they?….

[mixxalot]

BG needs her own talk show and radio show. That would be fun and entertaining.

[mixxalot]

Go BG! With the attacks she is truly unflappable. It would be interesting to see her in a real live debate onstage.

[phaster]

[quote=ucodegen][quote=phaster]
“Brave New World” a novel written in the early 1930’s described a future where the masses are lacking the ability to think critically yet basically have an infinite amount of distractions (like perhaps “FaceBook” and “Twitter”), while those further up the food chain (i.e. the 1%) are shown to revel in a consumption and pleasure lifestyle

just sayin’ if “Piggington forums” (where discussions about “critical thoughts” happen on occasion) were transported into a “Brave New World” universe, it might be a regional bridge/oasis between the majority WITHOUT wealth or some critical-thoughts and the 1% WITH wealth in addition to an introspection ability

so wondering would a three sentence response (like this) blatantly written trying to be insightful and succinct, get an upvote?[/quote]Depends on how far into the Brave New World we are… or the ‘New World Order’.. Would it also mean that those with critical thought could use it to succeed among a world of lemmings? Or would the lemmings turn cattle stampede and run the thinker into the ground.

Would critical thought and dissenting opinion be made criminal? After all, in the Brave New World – all you need to do is the same as every other lemming.[/quote]

mentioned “Brave New World” because like “1984” it was required reading in high school (@ least in my case) and w/ news and now a movie about snowden, I’d bet most would see the world as it exists, is leaning more toward a big brother “1984” like universe

as to “critical thought and dissenting opinion” in the real world, individual behavior is often usurped by social norms of the group an individual associates w/ and in our modern world reinforced by media an individual selects to consume

going up the food chain we see some politicians have tried to make laws banning behavior (like flag burning which might be considered a form of “critical thought and dissenting opinion”)

so if its a battle between a “Brave New World” vs “1984” universe, I’d bet against orwell

consider FOX is where conservatives gather, MSNBC is where liberals rally, “the daily show” is where millennials go for news, BLOOMBERG and CNBC is what investors watch, etc. etc.

to some degree we are all lemmings because as w/ a “Brave New World” universe there is a herd like mentality of various groups (i.e. self identified conservatives differ in worldview from self identified liberals, then we can see millennials might not have an appreciation of the POV of investors and vice versa, etc.)

another parallel (w/ the real world) is some young alpha class characters in a “Brave New World” are shown to have an independent thoughts and ideas, but the older alpha class characters were shown to have those independent thoughts and ideas conditioned out of them

in a 1984 universe big brother is watching everyone, which would mean TPTB would know when a terrorist attack would occur, BUT 9/11 and events like the new york and new jersey bombings from this past week did happen, so seems big brother isn’t a reality here in the USA at this point in time (as is described in the orwell book)

also in a 1984 universe, people as I recall are not allowed to fall in love,… but in our real world there is a lots of people who make personal porn videos (which might be considered a manifestation of love) and post clips on the inner-tubes, so seems our existence is much more akin to “Brave New World” universe which portrayed a type of hook up and “consumer” culture

IMHO the ability to think critically, in either a “Brave New World” or a “1984” universe would be an advantage because just as in the real world of investing some would be able to size up the situtation and forumlate a strategy to adapt to the change in climate and potentially succeed (but have to admit the numbers favor the stampede of lemmings running the thinker into the ground)

not to get religious or anything but from a pure numbers standpoint consider the influence of some dude who lived 2000 years ago in a desert and started off w/ only a few followers preaching something about “good news”

fast forward to the present and ponder the BIG influence that guy has on the world today w/ institutions like the catholic church which has something like a billion+ followers (in other words a guy w/ a critical POV of society 2000 years ago was able to beat the “lemmings” of TPTB for millennia w/ an idea that still resonates in our modern world)

BTW the same BIG influence on large swaths of the global population started by one historical character could also be made for the prophet muhammad, and the buddha

of course w/in any movement religious, economic, political, scientific, cultural, etc. there are going to be lemmings (who buy into the myth) and there are going to be some who aspire to be leaders (and have the desire to shape the myth)

human nature being what it is, means many who seek leadership roles are going to be self-serving narcissistic idiots, while a few others might be willing to sacrifice part of themselves for what they believe to be a greater good for those around them

[phaster]

[quote=flu]
Hey look, I can google things and cut, copy, and paste too. Because you know if you read it on the internet, it must be true!

[/quote]

WOW, so that’s what you look like…

I never considered “if you read it on the internet, it must be true!”

huh, what a concept take things at face value and disregard all ideas about applying the scientific method to verify if what is stated (on the web) has any merit

truth be told, over the years I’ve come across several opportunities to make “easy” money, like an offer of 5k from from some guy on facebook

thinking back, could have then used that as seed money to make even more money by taking advantage of a deal eMailed to me by some guy in nigeria

it all makes sense now, why go to university to learn something useless like math or try and think things out, when as you said the only thing that matters is making money and the way to make a personal fortune starts by using other peoples money then blindly follow various inner-tube schemes… then brag about being a financial genius just like trump (end sarcasm)

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/09/20/trump-brags-about-using-other-peoples-money/

[Coronita]

You know phaster…

For someone like you that “brags” about being “scholarly” and an “independent thinker”, you sure spend a lot of time on blogs writing a lot about just how “independent thinking” you are, and you sure spend a lot of time trying to convince others exactly how “independent thinking” you are.

Now why is that? I mean, if you truly were independent, why would you be posting all this random TMI on a financial/real estate blog, when you have a dozen or so other blogs (including your own, if you have one) you could be posting this at, like philosophy, end of the world, etc.

Why do you find it so necessary to find people who will validate your independent thoughts? If you were really independent “thinking”, you would be comfortable with your thoughts and wouldn’t need to be fishing this blog and a bunch of other blogs for complements or self-validation for your viewpoints.

And what’s wrong with talking about money? This is a real estate blog. The purpose of this blog is (or was) to talk about real estate and investing and money. Concepts that these days have eluded many of you nutjobs that apparently can’t find a better blog to post this philosophical rant masqueraded as a dig into public pensions, fiscal crisis that somehow is related to real estate prices in San Diego.

I mean, most off-topic posts are amusing. But, you’re trying so hard to seek validation of your philosophical opinions, I just don’t get. Same post, over and over again.

And don’t give me your elitist “philosophy” about how money isn’t important. If you really felt that way, you wouldn’t be here and/or you didn’t have to work hard for yours because you inherited something from your parents, which allows you to take everything they worked hard for granted. Afterall, apparently their hard work allowed you to waste so much of your time now. None of your posts, your rants, your screaming of the sky is falling is really going to move the needle about whatever your issue with public pension, Calpers,etc. Your posts aren’t making anyone “more aware” of a problem, or going to get anyone to change anything. People think there is a problem, already think there is a problem. People who don’t know and don’t care, still will don’t know and don’t care. Whatever “fix” will happen will be determined by the courts, which you have little or no control over when and how that will happen. Welcome to the wonderful world of mental masturbation that gets you nowhere.

[Anonymous]

C’mon, we need characters like phaster to keep this place interesting.

Imagine if everybody here were just posted lifestyle humblebrags. How dull would that be?

I’ll take a phaster post any day over another “I love my 4th home in Hawaii because it’s where I celebrate the holidays with my kids when they are on break from their Ivy League schools…”

[Coronita]

[quote=harvey]C’mon, we need characters like phaster to keep this place interesting.

Imagine if everybody here were just posted lifestyle humblebrags.

I’ll take a phaster post any day over another “I love my property in Hawaii because it’s where I celebrate the holidays with my kids when they are on break from their Ivy League schools…”[/quote]

Harvey, actually, I’m not the one suggesting anyone should get banned. Not phaster, not BG, and no one. I mean, it’s a free country, do whatever you want, so long as the blog operator is ok with it.

But, if you post something in far left field, and then someone like me says “WTF”, and then you say I’m ill-informed or an idiot…Well, ok….If that floats your boat.

Just like if you post a bunch of shit about immigrants or ethnic insensitive crap, then be prepared to get a shit storm from someone, and don’t come back thinking you were a victim.

[mixxalot]

Well if zika’s mosquitos bite BG then it’s game over.

[phaster]

[quote=flu]
… you sure spend a lot of time on blogs writing a lot about just how “independent thinking” you are, and you sure spend a lot of time trying to convince others exactly how “independent thinking” you are. Now why is that?
[/quote]

lot’s of time writing… not really

I’m a voracious reader w/ a good memory and my laptop is setup to scan media for stuff I find interesting and potentially useful like economic news which can be applied to managing my own money (i.e. “investing”)

its therefore easy to just “cut, copy, and paste” text to form a coherent picture and top it w/ a few words of personal observations that some might find entertaining/thought-provoking

besides as harvey mentioned it would be boring to post just another humblebrag about a 4th home in Hawaii, schemes that earn double digit returns in the current economic environment, a huge (pronounced “HUUUUGE” or “UGE” or “YUGE” depending upon trump’s mood) RE and stock portfolio structured to be tax efficient, etc. etc. etc.

(analysis and conclusions based on prior “posts”)

[quote=phaster]
August 11, 2016 – 7:33pm

[SNIP]

actually given “frequency” of posts on this site you share much more in common w/ BG than I do, given you two seem to be more regular, regulars (i.e. very active long term users)… and IMHO FWIW the posts contain lots of “noise” and very little “signal”; on the other hand I just drop in every once in a while to see what piggs mostly think about the economy and try to contribute insights supported by data that others might have missed (SEE existing website slogan at bottom of page,… In God we trust. Everyone Else Bring Data!)

[SNIP]

[/quote]

[quote=phaster]
September 11, 2016 – 8:43pm

[SNIP]

WRT the other post(s)…

[quote=flu]Phaster, lay off the monthly dope and booze binge.

I guess now that the Peak Oil conspiracy has been busted, it’s time to move onto the next conspiracy. Bonds and pensions.

Hope you didn’t go long on oil when it was Peak Prices… Lol.

Let me know when your next revelation will be the next time you’re high. Entertainment factor, of course.[/quote]

[quote=flu]I just think it’s funny that for some reason, some people are so fixated on one particular issue to the point of an obsession. I mean, what’s up with the axe grinding on municipalities and public pensions?

I mean, there were so many nutjobs that were talking about peak oil. I filled up my 20 gallon SUV over at costco yesterday. Cost me $50, down from $85 I think. Track rat miata cost $24 to fill up, getting 18 miles/gallon (lol)..Synthetic motor oil fell from $35 to $20 for 5 quarts.

So much for peak oil…Lol.[/quote]

[quote=flu]Meh, if there’s a voting system, then I’ll be the one trying to get the most negative votes. It means I’m doing a good job pissing people off. heh heh.[/quote]

next revelation is,… if there were a voting system I might win that most unpopular race because I inadvertently have honed a natural fact based zinger style and can on occasion deliver a message w/ kinda a “trump” like belittlement attitude when I see errors taken as gospel

upon reflection my excuse for a proclivity of using fact based zingers is caused by formidable years spent sitting through various theology (parochial school) and physics (university) lectures and trying to reconcile the two schools of thought, which admittedly in practice makes for unique analysis given each discipline has at its basis diametrically opposed ways of analyzing issues (i.e. belief vs logic)

whats your excuse? your head naturally located where the sun don’t shine and the fumes disrupting cognitive abilities so you revert back to middle school behavior like taunting and name calling??

PS since you mentioned “pensions” in your juvenile taunts, perhaps you might dismiss the news which indicates the local pension debt just spiked as just another part of a delusion I somehow fabricated to support some kind of conspiracy theory

[quote=sandiegouniontribune.com]
San Diego facing new pension debt

SAN DIEGO — A recent $380 million spike in San Diego’s pension debt is forcing city officials to debate whether to begin paying that bill now or take the controversial step of pushing the financial pain several years down the road.

…The spike, which is the result of a new actuarial study showing that city employees and retirees are living significantly longer, would increase the city’s annual pension payment — $261 million this year — by $35 million, or more than 13 percent.

That increase would help the city continue to cover annual pension benefits for retired employees and continue steadily paying down its unfunded, long-term pension liability, which the new study increased from $2 billion to nearly $2.4 billion.

Mayor Kevin Faulconer and the City Council created the city’s first pension stabilization fund last spring with a $16 million initial contribution, but they didn’t expect the money to get wiped out in one year.

The spike in pension debt also threatens millions of dollars in future pension savings that would be dedicated to infrastructure projects under Proposition H…

http://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/2016/sep/08/pension-san-diego-longevity-mortality-arrollado/
[/quote]

[/quote]

BTW here’s more “inconvenient truths” (i.e. news articles) that indicate blunders that remain unaddressed, ergo trouble is inevitable and this fact will have a knock on effect on my own “investments” and to protect gains have to ponder a hedge strategy

[quote=LA Times]
September 18, 2016

The pension gap

It was a deal that wasn’t supposed to cost taxpayers an extra dime. Now the state’s annual tab is in the billions, and the cost keeps climbing.

…This year, state employee pensions will cost taxpayers $5.4 billion, according to the Department of Finance. That’s more than the state will spend on environmental protection, fighting wildfires and the emergency response to the drought combined.

And it’s more than 30 times what the state paid for retirement benefits in 2000, before the effects of the new pension law, SB 400, had kicked in, according to data from the California Public Employees’ Retirement System…

…CalPERS had projected in 1999 that the improved benefits would cause no increase in the state’s annual pension contributions over the next 11 years. In fact, the state had to raise its payments by a total of $18 billion over that period to fill the gap, according to an analysis of CalPERS data.

The pension fund has not been able to catch up, even though financial markets eventually rebounded. That’s because during the lean years, older employees kept retiring and younger ones continued to build up credit toward their own pensions…

http://www.latimes.com/projects/la-me-pension-crisis-davis-deal/
[/quote]

[quote=New York Times]
September 18, 2016

…Public Pensions: Two Sets of Books

…Calpers,… keeps two sets of books: the officially stated numbers, and another set that reflects the “market value” of the pensions that people have earned. The second number is not publicly disclosed.

…governments nationwide do not know the true condition of the pension funds they are responsible for. That exposes millions of people, including retired public workers, local taxpayers and municipal bond buyers — who are often retirees themselves — to risks they have no way of knowing about.

…The market value of a pension reflects the full cost today of providing a steady, guaranteed income for life — and it’s large. Alarmingly large, in fact. This is one reason most states and cities don’t let the market numbers see the light of day.

…the routine practice of translating future pension payments into today’s dollars,… is called discounting.

…With everybody either retired, or about to be… there is no guesswork in determining everybody’s pensions. The actuaries at Calpers project each of the future monthly payments due… assuming they will live to age 90…. Then, they translate all those future payments into today’s dollars with a rate — often called a discount rate. This is exactly how a lender would calculate a home mortgage.

The problem is, which rate should be used? An economist would say the right rate for Calpers is the one for a risk-free bond, like a Treasury bond, because public pensions in California are guaranteed by the state and therefore risk-free. And that’s what Calpers does when it calculates market values. It used 2.56 percent when it calculated the bill…

But the rest of the time, Calpers and virtually all other public pension funds use their assumed annual rate of return on assets, now generally around 7.5 percent. Presto: This makes a pension appear to have a much smaller liability — or even a surplus…

[/quote]

[Coronita]

Wow, mroe control-c , control-v from phaster. So, you’re posting what was posted a few months ago by others. Nothing earth shattering here.

Get off the drugs phaster. Or at least start a new thread. Sheesh, why you keep posting on a BG thread is beyond me. Get off the the drugs.

How’s peak oil doing? 🙂

[phaster]

[quote=harvey]C’mon, we need characters like phaster to keep this place interesting.

Imagine if everybody here were just posted lifestyle humblebrags. How dull would that be?

I’ll take a phaster post any day over another “I love my 4th home in Hawaii because it’s where I celebrate the holidays with my kids when they are on break from their Ivy League schools…”[/quote]

FWIW seems politicians are paralyzed like deer staring at a headlight of an on oncoming car

I say this because it does not take much more than middle school math to understand basic problems like the way public pensions are structured yet politicians do not want to acknowledge the problem exists because doing so is political suicide w/ public employee unions

thought of in another way politicians, members of public employee unions and perhaps most “investors” are mostly in, is the first of five stages of something I was introduced to way back in a high school religion class

the five stages being: denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance which is the basic framework that makes up learning to live with loss

there is an economist that just won an award for describing the current problem w/ the stagnant economy, and in a paper he argues that easing monetary policy was the correct response from central banks to prevent the global economic from collapsing in 2007

http://www.williamwhite.ca/content/ultra-easy-money-digging-hole-deeper

that period should have been the wake up call for politicians and others in government bureaucracy to acknowledge systemic problems like public pensions, and the need to regulate financial instruments like “swaps” which are used for speculation (not just as a hedge), etc.

but politicians, others in government bureaucracy and many “investors” (not just here metaphorically speaking) don’t want to change the existing rules because they greatly benefit from the existing system, so they more or less ignore the various root causes of the problem and hope various central banks can some how jump start the various economies w/ easy money because looking at the big picture it ain’t pretty

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-10-05/a-record-152-trillion-in-global-debt-unnerves-imf-officials

[Author]

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