I’ve struggled with what if any opinion to offer. But you asked….
Rule 1 about La Jolla. Comps can be very deceptive. Very few houses that sell in La Jolla have good comps that are similar. Everything is different street to street, house to house. Ultimately you have to make a decision based on what you are willing to pay and how much you like the house.
With that in mind, I would not pay much attention to price per square foot. In Manhattan, it’s probably a good metric to gauge how good a deal you are getting. But in La Jolla, where a huge part of your purchase price is for the land, not the house, you would do as well to consider price for lot size. But even that is a terrible metric, because where that lot is located is tremendously important. (Never forget – Location, Location, Location. And in La Jolla, that changes block to block)
Even in Bird Rock, where most of the streets are quiet and have a tremendous sense of neighborhood, there are a few blocks that have heavy traffic and little sense of neighborhood, and should be discounted significantly because of that.
You mention wanting to see what shakes out in 9-12 months. Let me offer the opinion that not much will shake out in 9-12 months. I could be wrong, maybe this fall a lot will shake out, but my hunch is more likely 2-3 years. If you’re going to wait, get comfortable.
Interest rates are definitely the wild card in your plan. If you decide to not buy this place, who knows where interest rates will be in a year or two. I could see them as low, or even lower than they are currently, or I could see them much much higher. Both scenarios seem possible to me. (Although obviously only one will come to pass)
