Opinions please…

[flyer]

In reading your comments, it appears you and your wife really want this home, but that you are torn between what you want, and what you feel might be practical.

Over the past few years, and after losing several friends who were only in their 40’s, as I am, I have learned that life is extremely short, and EVERYTHING is temporary–so it is probably wise to enjoy each and every day.

On that basis, and since you both love the home, and since it appears this decision will bring you no financial hardship, I’d say–go for it!!

Our family made a decision over ten years ago, to move to a home we loved in Rancho Santa Fe, and it has been a dream come true for us. We’ve lived all over the world, but, for us, this is truly “home.”

Go with your heart, and enjoy your wonderful life!!!!

[goblue]

Thanks again for all of the feedback. To address a few comments:

1. UCgal – Yes, this is a long term decision, which to me is 10+ years. We have no children yet, but this home easily works for a family. We have no intention of relocating anytime soon or using it as a stepping stone to a bigger and better home. Part of the problem is you never no what life will throw at you and how decisions affect your future, which is why I posted in the first place.

2. Patientrenter – If I had to sell sooner than I anticipate due to unforseen circumstances and lose 20%-30%, I certainly would not be happy (who would?). However, to answer your question, as I am only in my mid 30’s and have an ample net worth, it may slightly change but certainly not crush my retirement plans or my quality of life. I don’t think anyone makes a purchase with the intent to lose that kind of money, though. I believe most home buyers expect to make some appreciation over the long term on their homes when they sell. The difference is the metrics changed during the housing boom and incorrectly promised ridiculous returns from previous generations. All my rent vs buy models that I have run have me breaking even in 4.5 years and that is based on 1% annual appreciation. Obviously, if I am down 20% out of the gate, that 1% may not be attainable over a 10 year hold. That is the million dollar variable.

3. Flu – I grew up in NY, but I have lived in different areas of CA and have always liked SD the best. No more haggling on the house as they already accepted my offer and that was a struggle in itself. For us, due to time contraints it is either take this one by tommorow (of course I have 17 days to walk away after start of escrow) or start looking for another rental.

4. SD Realtor – No apologies necessary. Good advice and yes, I have looked at the comps and the recent sales in birdrock average around $700 psf. However, the comps are located closer to the coast by a few blocks. Even with location adjustments, this would imply that I am still getting a pretty good deal at $575 psf for a home that needs no work. What keeps bothering me though is that after all the housing crashes, the owners are still getting 30% return over a 6 year hold. That is driving me crazy. To answer your second question, my broker of course thinks this is a good time to buy in birdrock as he believes it has been a hot area in contrast to past years when birdrock was not so popular. To his credit he states as most of you do, that if this is just a 3-4 year purchase I should not do it. If I am thinking 7+, then we have hit a pocket of price reductions and low interest rates that provide a good opportunity. Additionally, of all the homes in La Jolla that we have seen at <$1.4, this house is by far the best. We saw one at listed $2 million that we liked more, but not at $700k more. 5. Flyer - You are very accurate. My line of work is analyzing financial data, which makes purchasing anything quite difficult. It is my albatross because I crunch numbers on everything and it drives my wife crazy. I am not cheap in any way, but no large decisions escape the spreadsheets. To me the prudent thing to do is to move and keep renting and see what happens whereas my heart says this home works well for us and just live life and don't worry about. We will see who wins. Although, for what it is worth it seems if everyone was in my shoes, the majority would deal with moving/renting again and wait it out. I appreciate this forum for allowing me to talk this out.

[goblue]

Thanks again for all of the feedback. To address a few comments:

1. UCgal – Yes, this is a long term decision, which to me is 10+ years. We have no children yet, but this home easily works for a family. We have no intention of relocating anytime soon or using it as a stepping stone to a bigger and better home. Part of the problem is you never no what life will throw at you and how decisions affect your future, which is why I posted in the first place.

2. Patientrenter – If I had to sell sooner than I anticipate due to unforseen circumstances and lose 20%-30%, I certainly would not be happy (who would?). However, to answer your question, as I am only in my mid 30’s and have an ample net worth, it may slightly change but certainly not crush my retirement plans or my quality of life. I don’t think anyone makes a purchase with the intent to lose that kind of money, though. I believe most home buyers expect to make some appreciation over the long term on their homes when they sell. The difference is the metrics changed during the housing boom and incorrectly promised ridiculous returns from previous generations. All my rent vs buy models that I have run have me breaking even in 4.5 years and that is based on 1% annual appreciation. Obviously, if I am down 20% out of the gate, that 1% may not be attainable over a 10 year hold. That is the million dollar variable.

3. Flu – I grew up in NY, but I have lived in different areas of CA and have always liked SD the best. No more haggling on the house as they already accepted my offer and that was a struggle in itself. For us, due to time contraints it is either take this one by tommorow (of course I have 17 days to walk away after start of escrow) or start looking for another rental.

4. SD Realtor – No apologies necessary. Good advice and yes, I have looked at the comps and the recent sales in birdrock average around $700 psf. However, the comps are located closer to the coast by a few blocks. Even with location adjustments, this would imply that I am still getting a pretty good deal at $575 psf for a home that needs no work. What keeps bothering me though is that after all the housing crashes, the owners are still getting 30% return over a 6 year hold. That is driving me crazy. To answer your second question, my broker of course thinks this is a good time to buy in birdrock as he believes it has been a hot area in contrast to past years when birdrock was not so popular. To his credit he states as most of you do, that if this is just a 3-4 year purchase I should not do it. If I am thinking 7+, then we have hit a pocket of price reductions and low interest rates that provide a good opportunity. Additionally, of all the homes in La Jolla that we have seen at <$1.4, this house is by far the best. We saw one at listed $2 million that we liked more, but not at $700k more. 5. Flyer - You are very accurate. My line of work is analyzing financial data, which makes purchasing anything quite difficult. It is my albatross because I crunch numbers on everything and it drives my wife crazy. I am not cheap in any way, but no large decisions escape the spreadsheets. To me the prudent thing to do is to move and keep renting and see what happens whereas my heart says this home works well for us and just live life and don't worry about. We will see who wins. Although, for what it is worth it seems if everyone was in my shoes, the majority would deal with moving/renting again and wait it out. I appreciate this forum for allowing me to talk this out.

[goblue]

Thanks again for all of the feedback. To address a few comments:

1. UCgal – Yes, this is a long term decision, which to me is 10+ years. We have no children yet, but this home easily works for a family. We have no intention of relocating anytime soon or using it as a stepping stone to a bigger and better home. Part of the problem is you never no what life will throw at you and how decisions affect your future, which is why I posted in the first place.

2. Patientrenter – If I had to sell sooner than I anticipate due to unforseen circumstances and lose 20%-30%, I certainly would not be happy (who would?). However, to answer your question, as I am only in my mid 30’s and have an ample net worth, it may slightly change but certainly not crush my retirement plans or my quality of life. I don’t think anyone makes a purchase with the intent to lose that kind of money, though. I believe most home buyers expect to make some appreciation over the long term on their homes when they sell. The difference is the metrics changed during the housing boom and incorrectly promised ridiculous returns from previous generations. All my rent vs buy models that I have run have me breaking even in 4.5 years and that is based on 1% annual appreciation. Obviously, if I am down 20% out of the gate, that 1% may not be attainable over a 10 year hold. That is the million dollar variable.

3. Flu – I grew up in NY, but I have lived in different areas of CA and have always liked SD the best. No more haggling on the house as they already accepted my offer and that was a struggle in itself. For us, due to time contraints it is either take this one by tommorow (of course I have 17 days to walk away after start of escrow) or start looking for another rental.

4. SD Realtor – No apologies necessary. Good advice and yes, I have looked at the comps and the recent sales in birdrock average around $700 psf. However, the comps are located closer to the coast by a few blocks. Even with location adjustments, this would imply that I am still getting a pretty good deal at $575 psf for a home that needs no work. What keeps bothering me though is that after all the housing crashes, the owners are still getting 30% return over a 6 year hold. That is driving me crazy. To answer your second question, my broker of course thinks this is a good time to buy in birdrock as he believes it has been a hot area in contrast to past years when birdrock was not so popular. To his credit he states as most of you do, that if this is just a 3-4 year purchase I should not do it. If I am thinking 7+, then we have hit a pocket of price reductions and low interest rates that provide a good opportunity. Additionally, of all the homes in La Jolla that we have seen at <$1.4, this house is by far the best. We saw one at listed $2 million that we liked more, but not at $700k more. 5. Flyer - You are very accurate. My line of work is analyzing financial data, which makes purchasing anything quite difficult. It is my albatross because I crunch numbers on everything and it drives my wife crazy. I am not cheap in any way, but no large decisions escape the spreadsheets. To me the prudent thing to do is to move and keep renting and see what happens whereas my heart says this home works well for us and just live life and don't worry about. We will see who wins. Although, for what it is worth it seems if everyone was in my shoes, the majority would deal with moving/renting again and wait it out. I appreciate this forum for allowing me to talk this out.

[goblue]

Thanks again for all of the feedback. To address a few comments:

1. UCgal – Yes, this is a long term decision, which to me is 10+ years. We have no children yet, but this home easily works for a family. We have no intention of relocating anytime soon or using it as a stepping stone to a bigger and better home. Part of the problem is you never no what life will throw at you and how decisions affect your future, which is why I posted in the first place.

2. Patientrenter – If I had to sell sooner than I anticipate due to unforseen circumstances and lose 20%-30%, I certainly would not be happy (who would?). However, to answer your question, as I am only in my mid 30’s and have an ample net worth, it may slightly change but certainly not crush my retirement plans or my quality of life. I don’t think anyone makes a purchase with the intent to lose that kind of money, though. I believe most home buyers expect to make some appreciation over the long term on their homes when they sell. The difference is the metrics changed during the housing boom and incorrectly promised ridiculous returns from previous generations. All my rent vs buy models that I have run have me breaking even in 4.5 years and that is based on 1% annual appreciation. Obviously, if I am down 20% out of the gate, that 1% may not be attainable over a 10 year hold. That is the million dollar variable.

3. Flu – I grew up in NY, but I have lived in different areas of CA and have always liked SD the best. No more haggling on the house as they already accepted my offer and that was a struggle in itself. For us, due to time contraints it is either take this one by tommorow (of course I have 17 days to walk away after start of escrow) or start looking for another rental.

4. SD Realtor – No apologies necessary. Good advice and yes, I have looked at the comps and the recent sales in birdrock average around $700 psf. However, the comps are located closer to the coast by a few blocks. Even with location adjustments, this would imply that I am still getting a pretty good deal at $575 psf for a home that needs no work. What keeps bothering me though is that after all the housing crashes, the owners are still getting 30% return over a 6 year hold. That is driving me crazy. To answer your second question, my broker of course thinks this is a good time to buy in birdrock as he believes it has been a hot area in contrast to past years when birdrock was not so popular. To his credit he states as most of you do, that if this is just a 3-4 year purchase I should not do it. If I am thinking 7+, then we have hit a pocket of price reductions and low interest rates that provide a good opportunity. Additionally, of all the homes in La Jolla that we have seen at <$1.4, this house is by far the best. We saw one at listed $2 million that we liked more, but not at $700k more. 5. Flyer - You are very accurate. My line of work is analyzing financial data, which makes purchasing anything quite difficult. It is my albatross because I crunch numbers on everything and it drives my wife crazy. I am not cheap in any way, but no large decisions escape the spreadsheets. To me the prudent thing to do is to move and keep renting and see what happens whereas my heart says this home works well for us and just live life and don't worry about. We will see who wins. Although, for what it is worth it seems if everyone was in my shoes, the majority would deal with moving/renting again and wait it out. I appreciate this forum for allowing me to talk this out.

[goblue]

Thanks again for all of the feedback. To address a few comments:

1. UCgal – Yes, this is a long term decision, which to me is 10+ years. We have no children yet, but this home easily works for a family. We have no intention of relocating anytime soon or using it as a stepping stone to a bigger and better home. Part of the problem is you never no what life will throw at you and how decisions affect your future, which is why I posted in the first place.

2. Patientrenter – If I had to sell sooner than I anticipate due to unforseen circumstances and lose 20%-30%, I certainly would not be happy (who would?). However, to answer your question, as I am only in my mid 30’s and have an ample net worth, it may slightly change but certainly not crush my retirement plans or my quality of life. I don’t think anyone makes a purchase with the intent to lose that kind of money, though. I believe most home buyers expect to make some appreciation over the long term on their homes when they sell. The difference is the metrics changed during the housing boom and incorrectly promised ridiculous returns from previous generations. All my rent vs buy models that I have run have me breaking even in 4.5 years and that is based on 1% annual appreciation. Obviously, if I am down 20% out of the gate, that 1% may not be attainable over a 10 year hold. That is the million dollar variable.

3. Flu – I grew up in NY, but I have lived in different areas of CA and have always liked SD the best. No more haggling on the house as they already accepted my offer and that was a struggle in itself. For us, due to time contraints it is either take this one by tommorow (of course I have 17 days to walk away after start of escrow) or start looking for another rental.

4. SD Realtor – No apologies necessary. Good advice and yes, I have looked at the comps and the recent sales in birdrock average around $700 psf. However, the comps are located closer to the coast by a few blocks. Even with location adjustments, this would imply that I am still getting a pretty good deal at $575 psf for a home that needs no work. What keeps bothering me though is that after all the housing crashes, the owners are still getting 30% return over a 6 year hold. That is driving me crazy. To answer your second question, my broker of course thinks this is a good time to buy in birdrock as he believes it has been a hot area in contrast to past years when birdrock was not so popular. To his credit he states as most of you do, that if this is just a 3-4 year purchase I should not do it. If I am thinking 7+, then we have hit a pocket of price reductions and low interest rates that provide a good opportunity. Additionally, of all the homes in La Jolla that we have seen at <$1.4, this house is by far the best. We saw one at listed $2 million that we liked more, but not at $700k more. 5. Flyer - You are very accurate. My line of work is analyzing financial data, which makes purchasing anything quite difficult. It is my albatross because I crunch numbers on everything and it drives my wife crazy. I am not cheap in any way, but no large decisions escape the spreadsheets. To me the prudent thing to do is to move and keep renting and see what happens whereas my heart says this home works well for us and just live life and don't worry about. We will see who wins. Although, for what it is worth it seems if everyone was in my shoes, the majority would deal with moving/renting again and wait it out. I appreciate this forum for allowing me to talk this out.

[peterb]

All the data points to this sector of housing to be the next place to take a dive. But your location is highly desireable. So it fights the down draft fairly hard. I would think that 10% to 20% reductions in the next 12 months would not be out of line. Look how long the homes are staying on the market. If you can wait, I would. Things are not getting better any time soon.

[peterb]

All the data points to this sector of housing to be the next place to take a dive. But your location is highly desireable. So it fights the down draft fairly hard. I would think that 10% to 20% reductions in the next 12 months would not be out of line. Look how long the homes are staying on the market. If you can wait, I would. Things are not getting better any time soon.

[peterb]

All the data points to this sector of housing to be the next place to take a dive. But your location is highly desireable. So it fights the down draft fairly hard. I would think that 10% to 20% reductions in the next 12 months would not be out of line. Look how long the homes are staying on the market. If you can wait, I would. Things are not getting better any time soon.

[peterb]

All the data points to this sector of housing to be the next place to take a dive. But your location is highly desireable. So it fights the down draft fairly hard. I would think that 10% to 20% reductions in the next 12 months would not be out of line. Look how long the homes are staying on the market. If you can wait, I would. Things are not getting better any time soon.

[peterb]

All the data points to this sector of housing to be the next place to take a dive. But your location is highly desireable. So it fights the down draft fairly hard. I would think that 10% to 20% reductions in the next 12 months would not be out of line. Look how long the homes are staying on the market. If you can wait, I would. Things are not getting better any time soon.

[george]

I’ve been closely watching $2M range homes in Rancho Santa Fe & Olivenhain (rural Encinitas)markets for the last 15 months. I’m still seeing mostly price reductions week after week. A number of the properties I’ve been watching have sold, but so far I haven’t had to kicked myself over any missed opportunities. I think the high-end market will drop another 10-20% and it will be AT LEAST 12 months before that happens. At this time, I would be very reluctant to buy anything priced at 2004, or later, levels. My guess is that we will see 2002 prices (not factoring in inflation) by spring of 2011. Keep in mind that if a person buys now with 20% down and prices drop even 10% they have lost 50% of their investment. A previous poster made the point about the huge home equity gains, and easy jumbo loans in the past. These forces are no longer present to drive upgrades to the higher end market and it takes a long time for most people to save up for a down payment (or to make up for a investment loss) if they have to do it the old fashined way of banking their excess dollars & coins the end of the month.

[george]

I’ve been closely watching $2M range homes in Rancho Santa Fe & Olivenhain (rural Encinitas)markets for the last 15 months. I’m still seeing mostly price reductions week after week. A number of the properties I’ve been watching have sold, but so far I haven’t had to kicked myself over any missed opportunities. I think the high-end market will drop another 10-20% and it will be AT LEAST 12 months before that happens. At this time, I would be very reluctant to buy anything priced at 2004, or later, levels. My guess is that we will see 2002 prices (not factoring in inflation) by spring of 2011. Keep in mind that if a person buys now with 20% down and prices drop even 10% they have lost 50% of their investment. A previous poster made the point about the huge home equity gains, and easy jumbo loans in the past. These forces are no longer present to drive upgrades to the higher end market and it takes a long time for most people to save up for a down payment (or to make up for a investment loss) if they have to do it the old fashined way of banking their excess dollars & coins the end of the month.

[george]

I’ve been closely watching $2M range homes in Rancho Santa Fe & Olivenhain (rural Encinitas)markets for the last 15 months. I’m still seeing mostly price reductions week after week. A number of the properties I’ve been watching have sold, but so far I haven’t had to kicked myself over any missed opportunities. I think the high-end market will drop another 10-20% and it will be AT LEAST 12 months before that happens. At this time, I would be very reluctant to buy anything priced at 2004, or later, levels. My guess is that we will see 2002 prices (not factoring in inflation) by spring of 2011. Keep in mind that if a person buys now with 20% down and prices drop even 10% they have lost 50% of their investment. A previous poster made the point about the huge home equity gains, and easy jumbo loans in the past. These forces are no longer present to drive upgrades to the higher end market and it takes a long time for most people to save up for a down payment (or to make up for a investment loss) if they have to do it the old fashined way of banking their excess dollars & coins the end of the month.

[george]

I’ve been closely watching $2M range homes in Rancho Santa Fe & Olivenhain (rural Encinitas)markets for the last 15 months. I’m still seeing mostly price reductions week after week. A number of the properties I’ve been watching have sold, but so far I haven’t had to kicked myself over any missed opportunities. I think the high-end market will drop another 10-20% and it will be AT LEAST 12 months before that happens. At this time, I would be very reluctant to buy anything priced at 2004, or later, levels. My guess is that we will see 2002 prices (not factoring in inflation) by spring of 2011. Keep in mind that if a person buys now with 20% down and prices drop even 10% they have lost 50% of their investment. A previous poster made the point about the huge home equity gains, and easy jumbo loans in the past. These forces are no longer present to drive upgrades to the higher end market and it takes a long time for most people to save up for a down payment (or to make up for a investment loss) if they have to do it the old fashined way of banking their excess dollars & coins the end of the month.

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