Opinions please…

[patientrenter]

No one has a crystal ball, so it’s a question of odds. With that, here are my thoughts.

If you want to give yourself the best odds of the best financial outcome, then you should wait. All the negative factors that hit the lower end of the SD market haven’t percolated through to the high end yet. (A few people here think they never will but, as I said, it’s a question of judging the odds…)

Psychologically, it’s a completely different story. Most people who bought houses in the last few years paid with what I will call “Monopoly money”. That’s why they could bring themselves to write a check for $1 million for a dumpy place. For every 100 people who wrote that check, there were only a few who had actually saved most of that money by spending that much less than their net earnings stripped of capital gains. Most of the others borrowed most of the money, expecting to pay the loans back painlessly from a higher future sale price, or they used prior gains from previous home price appreciation (“equity”). It was therefore easy money, and they spent it more freely.

Based on your comments, I am guessing that you have a large pot of money for this next home purchase, and a lot of that money came for substantial prior home price appreciation. Each $1 of your housing pot didn’t come from a $1 saved by scouring the supermarket shelves for good deals, or taking cheap vacations, or some other self-denial. It came from high previous asset price appreciation, which was pretty painless, so it “feels” OK to spend a lot of it without counting the pennies.

With that (cheap, and worth every every penny) psycholgical profile, I’d say that you should just find a place you like, and make sure that a loss of 30% of the price would not exceed your prior gains.

[Coronita]

I’m sorry if you’re relocating from the big apple to of all places San Diego. But relevant to the first question you need to ask yourself….How likely will you and your wife remain in san diego and not another big city…Seems to me you have to deal with the bigger culture shock of that first…The good weather and the beaches only last for a couple of months.Are you really sure you’re going to stay in S.D. when the economy turns around?

The second question you need to ask yourself is how wealthy are you? If the answer is “insanely”, who cares what others think or whether RE corrects an additional 20-30%. I don’t see how folks use seeing $2million on a two bedroom place in in Manhattan need to even blink on a $1.3-5 million place in LJ…even IF you see things correct another 20-30%. You’re in a different league from a good portion of other buyers….There was one person that use to post around here called “raptorduck”. He was a high end buyer and made a purchase decision a few months back, and went through a few decision points… probably what you’re going through. You could search for his threads title “Tales of a RSF buyer” (Raptorduck, wish you were still here)….

http://piggington.com/tales_of_an_rsf_buyer_eiplogue_update (click on his username handle, and you can follow his entire saga).

Good luck…

(Psss just don’t tell people on this board you use to work for AIG, Goldman, JPM, or any bank especially if you received TARP….unless you want to get a lecture on why you’re money is really their money :))

[Coronita]

I’m sorry if you’re relocating from the big apple to of all places San Diego. But relevant to the first question you need to ask yourself….How likely will you and your wife remain in san diego and not another big city…Seems to me you have to deal with the bigger culture shock of that first…The good weather and the beaches only last for a couple of months.Are you really sure you’re going to stay in S.D. when the economy turns around?

The second question you need to ask yourself is how wealthy are you? If the answer is “insanely”, who cares what others think or whether RE corrects an additional 20-30%. I don’t see how folks use seeing $2million on a two bedroom place in in Manhattan need to even blink on a $1.3-5 million place in LJ…even IF you see things correct another 20-30%. You’re in a different league from a good portion of other buyers….There was one person that use to post around here called “raptorduck”. He was a high end buyer and made a purchase decision a few months back, and went through a few decision points… probably what you’re going through. You could search for his threads title “Tales of a RSF buyer” (Raptorduck, wish you were still here)….

http://piggington.com/tales_of_an_rsf_buyer_eiplogue_update (click on his username handle, and you can follow his entire saga).

Good luck…

(Psss just don’t tell people on this board you use to work for AIG, Goldman, JPM, or any bank especially if you received TARP….unless you want to get a lecture on why you’re money is really their money :))

[Coronita]

I’m sorry if you’re relocating from the big apple to of all places San Diego. But relevant to the first question you need to ask yourself….How likely will you and your wife remain in san diego and not another big city…Seems to me you have to deal with the bigger culture shock of that first…The good weather and the beaches only last for a couple of months.Are you really sure you’re going to stay in S.D. when the economy turns around?

The second question you need to ask yourself is how wealthy are you? If the answer is “insanely”, who cares what others think or whether RE corrects an additional 20-30%. I don’t see how folks use seeing $2million on a two bedroom place in in Manhattan need to even blink on a $1.3-5 million place in LJ…even IF you see things correct another 20-30%. You’re in a different league from a good portion of other buyers….There was one person that use to post around here called “raptorduck”. He was a high end buyer and made a purchase decision a few months back, and went through a few decision points… probably what you’re going through. You could search for his threads title “Tales of a RSF buyer” (Raptorduck, wish you were still here)….

http://piggington.com/tales_of_an_rsf_buyer_eiplogue_update (click on his username handle, and you can follow his entire saga).

Good luck…

(Psss just don’t tell people on this board you use to work for AIG, Goldman, JPM, or any bank especially if you received TARP….unless you want to get a lecture on why you’re money is really their money :))

[Coronita]

I’m sorry if you’re relocating from the big apple to of all places San Diego. But relevant to the first question you need to ask yourself….How likely will you and your wife remain in san diego and not another big city…Seems to me you have to deal with the bigger culture shock of that first…The good weather and the beaches only last for a couple of months.Are you really sure you’re going to stay in S.D. when the economy turns around?

The second question you need to ask yourself is how wealthy are you? If the answer is “insanely”, who cares what others think or whether RE corrects an additional 20-30%. I don’t see how folks use seeing $2million on a two bedroom place in in Manhattan need to even blink on a $1.3-5 million place in LJ…even IF you see things correct another 20-30%. You’re in a different league from a good portion of other buyers….There was one person that use to post around here called “raptorduck”. He was a high end buyer and made a purchase decision a few months back, and went through a few decision points… probably what you’re going through. You could search for his threads title “Tales of a RSF buyer” (Raptorduck, wish you were still here)….

http://piggington.com/tales_of_an_rsf_buyer_eiplogue_update (click on his username handle, and you can follow his entire saga).

Good luck…

(Psss just don’t tell people on this board you use to work for AIG, Goldman, JPM, or any bank especially if you received TARP….unless you want to get a lecture on why you’re money is really their money :))

[Coronita]

I’m sorry if you’re relocating from the big apple to of all places San Diego. But relevant to the first question you need to ask yourself….How likely will you and your wife remain in san diego and not another big city…Seems to me you have to deal with the bigger culture shock of that first…The good weather and the beaches only last for a couple of months.Are you really sure you’re going to stay in S.D. when the economy turns around?

The second question you need to ask yourself is how wealthy are you? If the answer is “insanely”, who cares what others think or whether RE corrects an additional 20-30%. I don’t see how folks use seeing $2million on a two bedroom place in in Manhattan need to even blink on a $1.3-5 million place in LJ…even IF you see things correct another 20-30%. You’re in a different league from a good portion of other buyers….There was one person that use to post around here called “raptorduck”. He was a high end buyer and made a purchase decision a few months back, and went through a few decision points… probably what you’re going through. You could search for his threads title “Tales of a RSF buyer” (Raptorduck, wish you were still here)….

http://piggington.com/tales_of_an_rsf_buyer_eiplogue_update (click on his username handle, and you can follow his entire saga).

Good luck…

(Psss just don’t tell people on this board you use to work for AIG, Goldman, JPM, or any bank especially if you received TARP….unless you want to get a lecture on why you’re money is really their money :))

[4plexowner]

another two cents on the lifestyle issue flu is talking about

Bird Rock is a long way from the freeways which are the primary way to get around San Diego county (lots of canyons so many of the surface streets don’t really take you anywhere you want to go – easier to stay on the freeways)

La Jolla has resisted building any roads in their community so, from Bird Rock, you can get to I-5 by driving through La Jolla or through Pacific Beach – take your choice but either way you are looking at 15 minutes or so just to get to the freeway – in work traffic or weekend beach traffic this drive time will obviously be more

maybe this isn’t an issue for you but I find it frustrating to be in the Bird Rock area trying to get anywhere in a hurry – when I’m not in a hurry it is a very nice area (except for those traffic circles in front of the new condos – what the F were they thinking!)

[4plexowner]

another two cents on the lifestyle issue flu is talking about

Bird Rock is a long way from the freeways which are the primary way to get around San Diego county (lots of canyons so many of the surface streets don’t really take you anywhere you want to go – easier to stay on the freeways)

La Jolla has resisted building any roads in their community so, from Bird Rock, you can get to I-5 by driving through La Jolla or through Pacific Beach – take your choice but either way you are looking at 15 minutes or so just to get to the freeway – in work traffic or weekend beach traffic this drive time will obviously be more

maybe this isn’t an issue for you but I find it frustrating to be in the Bird Rock area trying to get anywhere in a hurry – when I’m not in a hurry it is a very nice area (except for those traffic circles in front of the new condos – what the F were they thinking!)

[4plexowner]

another two cents on the lifestyle issue flu is talking about

Bird Rock is a long way from the freeways which are the primary way to get around San Diego county (lots of canyons so many of the surface streets don’t really take you anywhere you want to go – easier to stay on the freeways)

La Jolla has resisted building any roads in their community so, from Bird Rock, you can get to I-5 by driving through La Jolla or through Pacific Beach – take your choice but either way you are looking at 15 minutes or so just to get to the freeway – in work traffic or weekend beach traffic this drive time will obviously be more

maybe this isn’t an issue for you but I find it frustrating to be in the Bird Rock area trying to get anywhere in a hurry – when I’m not in a hurry it is a very nice area (except for those traffic circles in front of the new condos – what the F were they thinking!)

[4plexowner]

another two cents on the lifestyle issue flu is talking about

Bird Rock is a long way from the freeways which are the primary way to get around San Diego county (lots of canyons so many of the surface streets don’t really take you anywhere you want to go – easier to stay on the freeways)

La Jolla has resisted building any roads in their community so, from Bird Rock, you can get to I-5 by driving through La Jolla or through Pacific Beach – take your choice but either way you are looking at 15 minutes or so just to get to the freeway – in work traffic or weekend beach traffic this drive time will obviously be more

maybe this isn’t an issue for you but I find it frustrating to be in the Bird Rock area trying to get anywhere in a hurry – when I’m not in a hurry it is a very nice area (except for those traffic circles in front of the new condos – what the F were they thinking!)

[4plexowner]

another two cents on the lifestyle issue flu is talking about

Bird Rock is a long way from the freeways which are the primary way to get around San Diego county (lots of canyons so many of the surface streets don’t really take you anywhere you want to go – easier to stay on the freeways)

La Jolla has resisted building any roads in their community so, from Bird Rock, you can get to I-5 by driving through La Jolla or through Pacific Beach – take your choice but either way you are looking at 15 minutes or so just to get to the freeway – in work traffic or weekend beach traffic this drive time will obviously be more

maybe this isn’t an issue for you but I find it frustrating to be in the Bird Rock area trying to get anywhere in a hurry – when I’m not in a hurry it is a very nice area (except for those traffic circles in front of the new condos – what the F were they thinking!)

[goblue]

Thanks everyone for the feedback. There were a bunch of questions, that I thought I would address.

1. No, I do not work for a firm that received TARP funds. That is a nasty stigma these days, but you must remember 99% of the people in those firms are innocent bystanders who got hurt as well.

2. We currently live on a hill overlooking Birdrock now and really like the area. I work from home, so no commuting issues.

3. After 15 years in NYC, SD is a breath of fresh air. I actually love the small town feel and have no intentions of going back. I do miss my NY Giants games though.

4. I don’t know what your definition is of insanely wealthy is, but while I certaintly have no issues affording the home I don’t consider myself wealthy enough to blindy throw money away. This is a big decision for us and the difficult part is that it is a financial decision and a lifestyle decision. I am not approaching the home purchase as a personal ATM, which is partly what got the country into this mess in the first place. I would be more than happy with an average annual return of 1-2% over 10 years.

5. My wife wants the home because she believes we will happy there and after seeing 40 plus homes this was one of the only ones we liked. It also happened to be the least expensive. I on the other hand have a hard time in purchasing a depreciating asset, which is the reason for the original post. To be honest this whole dilemma is due to us having to vacate our current rental and our lack of interest in renting again.

6. SD Realtor – you stated that you believe I am overpaying. Is this belief on the current purchase price for a home in that area ($575 psf)or the speculation values will continue to decline? Because if you believe I am overpaying today and will have the furthur hit of a market decline that is a double whammy that will be tough to overcome.

Thanks again as I do value the insight.

[goblue]

Thanks everyone for the feedback. There were a bunch of questions, that I thought I would address.

1. No, I do not work for a firm that received TARP funds. That is a nasty stigma these days, but you must remember 99% of the people in those firms are innocent bystanders who got hurt as well.

2. We currently live on a hill overlooking Birdrock now and really like the area. I work from home, so no commuting issues.

3. After 15 years in NYC, SD is a breath of fresh air. I actually love the small town feel and have no intentions of going back. I do miss my NY Giants games though.

4. I don’t know what your definition is of insanely wealthy is, but while I certaintly have no issues affording the home I don’t consider myself wealthy enough to blindy throw money away. This is a big decision for us and the difficult part is that it is a financial decision and a lifestyle decision. I am not approaching the home purchase as a personal ATM, which is partly what got the country into this mess in the first place. I would be more than happy with an average annual return of 1-2% over 10 years.

5. My wife wants the home because she believes we will happy there and after seeing 40 plus homes this was one of the only ones we liked. It also happened to be the least expensive. I on the other hand have a hard time in purchasing a depreciating asset, which is the reason for the original post. To be honest this whole dilemma is due to us having to vacate our current rental and our lack of interest in renting again.

6. SD Realtor – you stated that you believe I am overpaying. Is this belief on the current purchase price for a home in that area ($575 psf)or the speculation values will continue to decline? Because if you believe I am overpaying today and will have the furthur hit of a market decline that is a double whammy that will be tough to overcome.

Thanks again as I do value the insight.

[goblue]

Thanks everyone for the feedback. There were a bunch of questions, that I thought I would address.

1. No, I do not work for a firm that received TARP funds. That is a nasty stigma these days, but you must remember 99% of the people in those firms are innocent bystanders who got hurt as well.

2. We currently live on a hill overlooking Birdrock now and really like the area. I work from home, so no commuting issues.

3. After 15 years in NYC, SD is a breath of fresh air. I actually love the small town feel and have no intentions of going back. I do miss my NY Giants games though.

4. I don’t know what your definition is of insanely wealthy is, but while I certaintly have no issues affording the home I don’t consider myself wealthy enough to blindy throw money away. This is a big decision for us and the difficult part is that it is a financial decision and a lifestyle decision. I am not approaching the home purchase as a personal ATM, which is partly what got the country into this mess in the first place. I would be more than happy with an average annual return of 1-2% over 10 years.

5. My wife wants the home because she believes we will happy there and after seeing 40 plus homes this was one of the only ones we liked. It also happened to be the least expensive. I on the other hand have a hard time in purchasing a depreciating asset, which is the reason for the original post. To be honest this whole dilemma is due to us having to vacate our current rental and our lack of interest in renting again.

6. SD Realtor – you stated that you believe I am overpaying. Is this belief on the current purchase price for a home in that area ($575 psf)or the speculation values will continue to decline? Because if you believe I am overpaying today and will have the furthur hit of a market decline that is a double whammy that will be tough to overcome.

Thanks again as I do value the insight.

[goblue]

Thanks everyone for the feedback. There were a bunch of questions, that I thought I would address.

1. No, I do not work for a firm that received TARP funds. That is a nasty stigma these days, but you must remember 99% of the people in those firms are innocent bystanders who got hurt as well.

2. We currently live on a hill overlooking Birdrock now and really like the area. I work from home, so no commuting issues.

3. After 15 years in NYC, SD is a breath of fresh air. I actually love the small town feel and have no intentions of going back. I do miss my NY Giants games though.

4. I don’t know what your definition is of insanely wealthy is, but while I certaintly have no issues affording the home I don’t consider myself wealthy enough to blindy throw money away. This is a big decision for us and the difficult part is that it is a financial decision and a lifestyle decision. I am not approaching the home purchase as a personal ATM, which is partly what got the country into this mess in the first place. I would be more than happy with an average annual return of 1-2% over 10 years.

5. My wife wants the home because she believes we will happy there and after seeing 40 plus homes this was one of the only ones we liked. It also happened to be the least expensive. I on the other hand have a hard time in purchasing a depreciating asset, which is the reason for the original post. To be honest this whole dilemma is due to us having to vacate our current rental and our lack of interest in renting again.

6. SD Realtor – you stated that you believe I am overpaying. Is this belief on the current purchase price for a home in that area ($575 psf)or the speculation values will continue to decline? Because if you believe I am overpaying today and will have the furthur hit of a market decline that is a double whammy that will be tough to overcome.

Thanks again as I do value the insight.

[Author]

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