One of the nation’s tightest rental markets

[spdrun]

svelte: it’s not where as much as what. lower-end (not necessarily bad) condos that would have been snapped up by investors at a given price in 2013 or 2014 aren’t moving as fast this year. the middle and high end markets are still moving well.

bearishgurl: agree that dual-tracking was dishonest. however, i think there should have not even been lip-service to a mod unless there were exigent circumstances involved (job loss, death in family, serious illness in family). miss a few payments outside of said circumstances, house should have gone on the block and become a REO on the MLS.

Failing to analyze and think before making an expensive leveraged investment is not a good enough excuse (IMHO).

[bearishgurl]

[quote=AN]BG, did you list 92121 by accident?[/quote]

Sorry, long day … I meant 92020 and 92021 (EC Valley and Bostonia).

[bearishgurl]

[quote=spdrun]svelte: it’s not where as much as what. lower-end (not necessarily bad) condos that would have been snapped up by investors at a given price in 2013 or 2014 aren’t moving as fast this year. the middle and high end markets are still moving well.

bearishgurl: agree that dual-tracking was dishonest. however, i think there should have not even been lip-service to a mod unless there were exigent circumstances involved (job loss, death in family, serious illness in family). miss a few payments outside of said circumstances, house should have gone on the block and become a REO on the MLS.

Failing to analyze and thin before making an expensive leveraged investment is not a good enough excuse (IMHO).[/quote]

Agree on the mods, spdrun. However many (unqualified) borrrowers/mod applicants were TRULY LIED TO BY THEIR LENDER(S) REPEATEDLY, which caused them to attempt to jump thru HOOPS OF FIRE for their lender(s) only to later find out that their TRUE INTENTION was to pursue immediate foreclosure.

Had these lenders been honest from the get go, they may have received keys (and a “broomswept” property) from these borrowers many months in advance of FC and thus saved a lot of time … for everyone involved.

[bearishgurl]

Believe it or not, there are still SFR rentals in SD County TODAY in the $1600 – $1800 mo range … in MANY areas.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]svelte: it’s not where as much as what. lower-end (not necessarily bad) condos that would have been snapped up by investors at a given price in 2013 or 2014 aren’t moving as fast this year. the middle and high end markets are still moving well.

bearishgurl: agree that dual-tracking was dishonest. however, i think there should have not even been lip-service to a mod unless there were exigent circumstances involved (job loss, death in family, serious illness in family). miss a few payments outside of said circumstances, house should have gone on the block and become a REO on the MLS.

Failing to analyze and think before making an expensive leveraged investment is not a good enough excuse (IMHO).[/quote]

It depends on where. MM seems to be buzzing along just fine. I don’t seem many 1/1s on the markets that are less than $180k. And when they are less than $180k, they usually go pretty quick. 1/1’s are as low end as you are going to get in this hood.

College area by SDSU seemed to be doing just fine as well. Probably not the same appreciation in north county areas, but it’s still pretty decent. There are probably areas that will never recover. But it makes you wonder why you would consider buying there to begin with.

[thejard]

It is funny you mention 91910 and SFR…

I stumbled upon this site a few months back and loved the analysis. Have lately been reading the comments… so a bit of a lurker here 🙂

But, this got me to post since relevant.

We just had our first baby in Dec and we are trying to turn that tax windfall into a house in Chula Vista where my gal pal (don’t plan on marriage anytime soon) grew up. Ideally NW Chula…

3.5% FHA, maybe a small 203K, trying to be around $300K-$330K, need 3/2, already laden w/ debt

So, the realtor.com link is very familiar to me 🙂
709 4th–>went pending in 1 day; it was a relisted/back on market… I’m guessing all cash
752 2nd–>owners squatting, will not move. bank has offered ‘substantial’ $$, but they no take. Auction I think starts at $209k
164 Landis–>I’ve seen bounce from 375-350-375
The rest are contingent. I don’t feel like NW Chula is ‘cheap’

This all makes us sad and frustrated lol… She bought a house in 2007 and prices are back above that level a decent clip. At our price range we are in direct competition w/ investors with fat wallets.

We’d love to get a house… American Dream and all that, but maybe we missed the boat on this ‘time to buy’ so to speak? But how long is too long to wait… in the mean time we rent at a low cost ($1120 North Adams, 1/1+den… baby room!) and save/pay down debts… and obsess!

[Coronita]

BTW: two 1/1 condos just went pending in MM today.
Asking prices were 196k and 185k respectively, on the east side.

Again, it’s not even summer yet.

[spdrun]

It’s peak season now. Peak pricing is typically reached NOW through mid May, with a plateau in summer. Besides, those pending units will likely record in mid May to early June.

Late July to early August are actually slow months. MM might be doing fine. Other areas have more inventory than last year, and they’re not horrible areas.

[Coronita]

[quote=spdrun]It’s peak season now. Peak pricing is typically reached NOW through mid May, with a plateau in summer. Besides, those pending units will likely record in mid May to early June.

Late July to early August are actually slow months. MM might be doing fine. Other areas have more inventory than last year, and they’re not horrible areas.[/quote]

Peak doesn’t usually start until summertime.

[spdrun]

Increases in asking prices are usually slow to nonexistent after May, and sales tend to slow down by mid July. People often buy for a summertime move, meaning they’re looking to buy now and close in early summer.

[livinincali]

Rental market in San Diego is starting to slow down for sure. I can tell you based on a bunch of data that the rental vacancy rates have been rising for the past 6-9 months and in most markets the rate of increasing prices has started to level off although it is still going up a bit. I’d expect us to plateau around these levels for a bit, and then who knows what happens after that. If we get a recession we probably see prices move down if we get real wage inflation then perhaps prices move up.

[bearishgurl]

[quote=thejard]It is funny you mention 91910 and SFR…

I stumbled upon this site a few months back and loved the analysis. Have lately been reading the comments… so a bit of a lurker here 🙂

But, this got me to post since relevant.

We just had our first baby in Dec and we are trying to turn that tax windfall into a house in Chula Vista where my gal pal (don’t plan on marriage anytime soon) grew up. Ideally NW Chula…

3.5% FHA, maybe a small 203K, trying to be around $300K-$330K, need 3/2, already laden w/ debt

So, the realtor.com link is very familiar to me 🙂
709 4th–>went pending in 1 day; it was a relisted/back on market… I’m guessing all cash
752 2nd–>owners squatting, will not move. bank has offered ‘substantial’ $$, but they no take. Auction I think starts at $209k
164 Landis–>I’ve seen bounce from 375-350-375
The rest are contingent. I don’t feel like NW Chula is ‘cheap’

This all makes us sad and frustrated lol… She bought a house in 2007 and prices are back above that level a decent clip. At our price range we are in direct competition w/ investors with fat wallets.

We’d love to get a house… American Dream and all that, but maybe we missed the boat on this ‘time to buy’ so to speak? But how long is too long to wait… in the mean time we rent at a low cost ($1120 North Adams, 1/1+den… baby room!) and save/pay down debts… and obsess![/quote]

thejard, I didn’t mean to imply that Chula Vista was “cheap” (and it shouldn’t be). Actually its northwest corner is the most well-located and convenient part of the city, has great weather (being situated on the bay) and is very walkable and convenient to public transportation. Plus, it has almost all the city govm’t HQ there and a full range of government services, ie. library, swimming pool, rec center, courts, assessor, etc (all walkable).

My last post doesn’t sound like it but I am probably the most UNsympathetic on this forum to underwater borrowers’ plights. I feel that the vast majority of them did it to themselves by living beyond their means (often FAR BEYOND) using their principal residences as ATMs. IMO, squatting owners deserve to be booted out within days after their former property is sold to the highest bidder or reverts back to the beneficiary at a trustees sale.

I totally blame the defaulted upon LENDERS for allowing all these idiots to squat for many months to several YEARS. They ALSO made their own beds.

I have found that many of the RE agents around here will just take an underwater listing before even determining if the defaulted-upon lender(s) are even remotely interested in considering a short sale. Some of them even keep them as “pocket listings” and will not place a lockbox on these properties because THEY want to be the ONLY agent to “show” them (by appt only).

The vast majority of these SS listings are in really bad shape (even unsanitary) and usually there are too many people living there (owner-families/tenants or both), often with language barriers. These agents taking these so-called “short-sale listings” are just throwing spaghetti at the ceiling to see if any sticks (wasting everyone’s time).

The flipper teams have had a field day around here in recent years, even flippers who went into “equity-sharing” agreements with marginal homeowners who didn’t have the money to fix up their properties for sale (to recover enough to pay off their liens without affecting their credit and get out cleanly). For the most part, what the flipper-teams have done has been raising all boats …. albeit slowly, because there still seem to be quite a few underwater homeowners out there.

Your GF is typical of new parents today who start their families and then move back to Chula Vista, to be near family help for child care. Often, their local families here help them with a downpayment or even purchase a nearby house FOR them!

Owners of GOOD, LARGER homes on DECENT-SIZED lots in central/west Chula Vista are NOT bringing them to market in this mess because the recent sold-comps are too low due to recent SS closings, and, to a much lesser extent, FC sale closings. The currently “active” (mostly UNapproved) SS listings create a perception among prospective out-of-area buyers that their artificially-low asking price is actually how much a house of that size is WORTH in the immediate area. But nothing could be further from the truth. Equity owners aren’t going to sell for $100-$200K LESS in this micro-market just to sell when they don’t need to. So it’s a “push-pull” vicious cycle still prevalent in many micro-areas of SoCal and that is why you aren’t seeing much inventory.

thejard, I’ll be honest here and say you very likely will not find a SFR seller in 91910 willing to accept an FHA offer. And so many condos cannot go FHA due to their low owner-occupancy rate. In any case, 91910 has few condos.

If you are renting north of Adams (Normal Heights?) for just $1120 mo, I feel you should stay there and pay your debts down. You cannot compete as a buyer in the lower-priced areas anywhere in the county while mired in debt and submitting FHA offers. As you stated, cash buyers are the biggest impediment in your price range.

If I understood your post correctly, you stated your GF bought a house in 2007. If that house is located in SD County, why isn’t she (and you and your baby) living there? It seems to me that that would be preferable to collecting rent from it, depending on its PITI and amount of rent she is collecting. You all have to live somewhere.

If your GF is already a homeowner, will she actually be able to qualify for another mortgage with you? Does she work? Why does she/do you want to buy another house when she already owns a house and you have other debt to pay off?

[bearishgurl]

spdrun, I see nothing in the CA “Homeowner’s Bill of Rights” which precludes a lender from foreclosing timely 141-145 days after default (w/30 days added for phone contact to borrower to ascertain if they may be eligible for a mod).

There doesn’t appear to be any provision in it requiring lenders to offer any remedies at all to FC … it only requires them to ask their delinquent borrower questions to determine if they are eligible for a mod during the 30-day statutory “contact period” before a notice of default is filed.

This is assuming the left hand of the lender hasn’t already accepted an application for mod from the borrower and is attempting to process it.

Just like the employer who doesn’t want to hire a particular candidate for a job, a defaulted-upon lender can come up will all kinds of legally plausible reasons why their delinquent borrower is ineligible for a mod.

All it costs the lender is 30 more days added to the nonjudicial FC process (now extended 5 more years to 1/1/18).

Am I missing something here?

So, why again are these lenders still languishing and letting deadbeat home”owners” squat into oblivion in this supposedly “hot” market??

[thejard]

Ah yes… my convoluted ramblings 🙂

GF+prev-house–> Divorce, she gave up rights to the house. Full and clear from that as of Feb/2015… another reason we started house hunting 🙂

FHA+luck+NW-Chula–> I agree NW Chula is very nice… I mean you get spill over from Broadway and some areas have a high concentration of apartments… but don’t need a/c! 🙂

I also agree that we are a long shot… and to be honest, idk if I could really actually pull the trigger. Soooo much student loan debt, plus credit cards and all.

I feel I am a microcosm of the current issues facing first time home buyers…

Renting–>Normal Heights yes… lovely place, and super cheap. Still have to drive down to Chula to drop kid off and then head to Poway for work.

Thanks for the response and insight. Condos… yeah, they scare me. Like an APT I can’t bounce from if I don’t like. East Chula… meh, all HOA crap. I’m a bit of a hick so if I’s buy’s land ain’t nobody gun tell me what ta do… ‘cept maybe law dawg

She says she just wants a house… so, maybe we look elsewhere in South Bay. Lemon Grove? Nasty City… omg La Presa is fugly, like TJ hills… S Bay Terrace is like condo land… #1 gentrifying area 92113… encanto, are there pockets of nice?

Friend says to move up to Menifee… but wow @taxes and meloroo and hoa and 15 PARKING LOT SHOOT SELF

more ramblings 🙂

[utcsox]

[quote=livinincali]Rental market in San Diego is starting to slow down for sure. I can tell you based on a bunch of data that the rental vacancy rates have been rising for the past 6-9 months and in most markets the rate of increasing prices has started to level off although it is still going up a bit. I’d expect us to plateau around these levels for a bit, and then who knows what happens after that. If we get a recession we probably see prices move down if we get real wage inflation then perhaps prices move up.[/quote]

Mind if you share with us some data point?

[Author]

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