One for the Bulls…………..

[temeculaguy]

The first sentence says that 84 bil was due to reduced purchase originations, the rest (616 bln) is refi’s. The article is mostly about fewer refi’s in the 5’s, ratewise. I’m not sure if 84 bln lower purcahse originations is the indicator to determine the buying, number of units sold is a better index because houses purchased now cost less, in many cases, a lot less, so less will be borrowed. I also think todays buyer is probably biting off less than they can chew as opposed to two years ago, partially due to lower prices and partially due to marcoeconmic uncertainty.

I guess I have been one those who mentions buying activity, but I’m not a realtor, just a potential landlord shopping the market for a cheap rental, I’m not making this stuff up, there are people buying real estate right now, lots of them, it would be easier for me if they weren’t, but they are. Inventory, number of sales, number of offers, days on market, these are metrics to determine activity, loan originations can be a factor but it’s a smaller indicator and the large refi percentage clouds it so you have to seperate the data.

[aldante]

I think that there are a lot of people that are buying properties. No doubt. I also know that here in Carlsbad there are properties that are being held back from market. I think that perception is very powerful and when I see houses sitting empty with no activity (two less then a mile from where I am renting)and realtors making statement asserting that prices are where they are because of no supply, it makes me just question their integrity. They know as well as I that for a while anyway perception is reality. I latched on to the exact same part of this article that you did Temeculaguy. Most of the mortgage activity is (!!!!) and has been (!!!!) refis. Not new purchases!! That is the entire point. Agents, mainstream media, bloggers, have taken the mortgage refis as signs of a rebound. This article at least shows that a)most of the activity that “interested parties” have pointed to as green shoots may just be “yellow weeds” b)$700 billion is not just a drop in the bucket….at the very least the mortgage business will suffer orginations or refi’s. In a time when 10% unemployment is reality, this will not help.

BTW my whole point is simply that the market will eventually prevail. All of the government action, all of the wealth transfer (and it has been massive) all of the fraud committed by homeowners, realtors, mortgage agents, appraisers, lawyers, “investors” simply delays the inevitable.

[aldante]

I think that there are a lot of people that are buying properties. No doubt. I also know that here in Carlsbad there are properties that are being held back from market. I think that perception is very powerful and when I see houses sitting empty with no activity (two less then a mile from where I am renting)and realtors making statement asserting that prices are where they are because of no supply, it makes me just question their integrity. They know as well as I that for a while anyway perception is reality. I latched on to the exact same part of this article that you did Temeculaguy. Most of the mortgage activity is (!!!!) and has been (!!!!) refis. Not new purchases!! That is the entire point. Agents, mainstream media, bloggers, have taken the mortgage refis as signs of a rebound. This article at least shows that a)most of the activity that “interested parties” have pointed to as green shoots may just be “yellow weeds” b)$700 billion is not just a drop in the bucket….at the very least the mortgage business will suffer orginations or refi’s. In a time when 10% unemployment is reality, this will not help.

BTW my whole point is simply that the market will eventually prevail. All of the government action, all of the wealth transfer (and it has been massive) all of the fraud committed by homeowners, realtors, mortgage agents, appraisers, lawyers, “investors” simply delays the inevitable.

[aldante]

I think that there are a lot of people that are buying properties. No doubt. I also know that here in Carlsbad there are properties that are being held back from market. I think that perception is very powerful and when I see houses sitting empty with no activity (two less then a mile from where I am renting)and realtors making statement asserting that prices are where they are because of no supply, it makes me just question their integrity. They know as well as I that for a while anyway perception is reality. I latched on to the exact same part of this article that you did Temeculaguy. Most of the mortgage activity is (!!!!) and has been (!!!!) refis. Not new purchases!! That is the entire point. Agents, mainstream media, bloggers, have taken the mortgage refis as signs of a rebound. This article at least shows that a)most of the activity that “interested parties” have pointed to as green shoots may just be “yellow weeds” b)$700 billion is not just a drop in the bucket….at the very least the mortgage business will suffer orginations or refi’s. In a time when 10% unemployment is reality, this will not help.

BTW my whole point is simply that the market will eventually prevail. All of the government action, all of the wealth transfer (and it has been massive) all of the fraud committed by homeowners, realtors, mortgage agents, appraisers, lawyers, “investors” simply delays the inevitable.

[aldante]

I think that there are a lot of people that are buying properties. No doubt. I also know that here in Carlsbad there are properties that are being held back from market. I think that perception is very powerful and when I see houses sitting empty with no activity (two less then a mile from where I am renting)and realtors making statement asserting that prices are where they are because of no supply, it makes me just question their integrity. They know as well as I that for a while anyway perception is reality. I latched on to the exact same part of this article that you did Temeculaguy. Most of the mortgage activity is (!!!!) and has been (!!!!) refis. Not new purchases!! That is the entire point. Agents, mainstream media, bloggers, have taken the mortgage refis as signs of a rebound. This article at least shows that a)most of the activity that “interested parties” have pointed to as green shoots may just be “yellow weeds” b)$700 billion is not just a drop in the bucket….at the very least the mortgage business will suffer orginations or refi’s. In a time when 10% unemployment is reality, this will not help.

BTW my whole point is simply that the market will eventually prevail. All of the government action, all of the wealth transfer (and it has been massive) all of the fraud committed by homeowners, realtors, mortgage agents, appraisers, lawyers, “investors” simply delays the inevitable.

[aldante]

I think that there are a lot of people that are buying properties. No doubt. I also know that here in Carlsbad there are properties that are being held back from market. I think that perception is very powerful and when I see houses sitting empty with no activity (two less then a mile from where I am renting)and realtors making statement asserting that prices are where they are because of no supply, it makes me just question their integrity. They know as well as I that for a while anyway perception is reality. I latched on to the exact same part of this article that you did Temeculaguy. Most of the mortgage activity is (!!!!) and has been (!!!!) refis. Not new purchases!! That is the entire point. Agents, mainstream media, bloggers, have taken the mortgage refis as signs of a rebound. This article at least shows that a)most of the activity that “interested parties” have pointed to as green shoots may just be “yellow weeds” b)$700 billion is not just a drop in the bucket….at the very least the mortgage business will suffer orginations or refi’s. In a time when 10% unemployment is reality, this will not help.

BTW my whole point is simply that the market will eventually prevail. All of the government action, all of the wealth transfer (and it has been massive) all of the fraud committed by homeowners, realtors, mortgage agents, appraisers, lawyers, “investors” simply delays the inevitable.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, most of mortgage activity is nearly always refi’s not new purchases and always will be.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, most of mortgage activity is nearly always refi’s not new purchases and always will be.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, most of mortgage activity is nearly always refi’s not new purchases and always will be.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, most of mortgage activity is nearly always refi’s not new purchases and always will be.

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, most of mortgage activity is nearly always refi’s not new purchases and always will be.

[temeculaguy]

aldante, I feel for you brother. I wonder if Carlsbad will ever suffer the same fate as other areas, it is suprisingly resistant. Here we are, quite a ways into this thing and it’s still hanging in there, with probably quite a few buyers anxiously awaiting those empty properties, however many there are. It’s gonna take some patience and a little luck since you are waiting for the pain train at one of it’s last scheduled stops. Personally I would have gotten out the map by now and looked elsewhere. Then again, 20 years ago, I was living probably within a few miles of where you are now and I gave up and moved. The market and the economy have had a few ups and downs in those twenty years and had i stayed, I’d still be waiting. Are prices there at 2003 prices? Any sign of 2002 or 2001 numbers? I don’t follow that market, but if they get to prices for those houses in terms of those years, jump on it, because at the end of the day, out of the 2.5 million people in the county, probably 2.4 million would live there if they could afford it, when they can they will.

[temeculaguy]

aldante, I feel for you brother. I wonder if Carlsbad will ever suffer the same fate as other areas, it is suprisingly resistant. Here we are, quite a ways into this thing and it’s still hanging in there, with probably quite a few buyers anxiously awaiting those empty properties, however many there are. It’s gonna take some patience and a little luck since you are waiting for the pain train at one of it’s last scheduled stops. Personally I would have gotten out the map by now and looked elsewhere. Then again, 20 years ago, I was living probably within a few miles of where you are now and I gave up and moved. The market and the economy have had a few ups and downs in those twenty years and had i stayed, I’d still be waiting. Are prices there at 2003 prices? Any sign of 2002 or 2001 numbers? I don’t follow that market, but if they get to prices for those houses in terms of those years, jump on it, because at the end of the day, out of the 2.5 million people in the county, probably 2.4 million would live there if they could afford it, when they can they will.

[temeculaguy]

aldante, I feel for you brother. I wonder if Carlsbad will ever suffer the same fate as other areas, it is suprisingly resistant. Here we are, quite a ways into this thing and it’s still hanging in there, with probably quite a few buyers anxiously awaiting those empty properties, however many there are. It’s gonna take some patience and a little luck since you are waiting for the pain train at one of it’s last scheduled stops. Personally I would have gotten out the map by now and looked elsewhere. Then again, 20 years ago, I was living probably within a few miles of where you are now and I gave up and moved. The market and the economy have had a few ups and downs in those twenty years and had i stayed, I’d still be waiting. Are prices there at 2003 prices? Any sign of 2002 or 2001 numbers? I don’t follow that market, but if they get to prices for those houses in terms of those years, jump on it, because at the end of the day, out of the 2.5 million people in the county, probably 2.4 million would live there if they could afford it, when they can they will.

[temeculaguy]

aldante, I feel for you brother. I wonder if Carlsbad will ever suffer the same fate as other areas, it is suprisingly resistant. Here we are, quite a ways into this thing and it’s still hanging in there, with probably quite a few buyers anxiously awaiting those empty properties, however many there are. It’s gonna take some patience and a little luck since you are waiting for the pain train at one of it’s last scheduled stops. Personally I would have gotten out the map by now and looked elsewhere. Then again, 20 years ago, I was living probably within a few miles of where you are now and I gave up and moved. The market and the economy have had a few ups and downs in those twenty years and had i stayed, I’d still be waiting. Are prices there at 2003 prices? Any sign of 2002 or 2001 numbers? I don’t follow that market, but if they get to prices for those houses in terms of those years, jump on it, because at the end of the day, out of the 2.5 million people in the county, probably 2.4 million would live there if they could afford it, when they can they will.

[Author]

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