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  • December 16, 2008 at 12:27 PM #316596
    stockstradr
    Participant

    http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122943629459610297.html

    So far, shorting treasuries has been a losing proposition. My ProShares short 7-10 year treasuries ETF is already off by 5%.

    January 30, 2009 at 10:06 PM #339106
    stockstradr
    Participant

    As for making money on treasuries..

    Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

    My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

    That has been quite a money-maker for me.

    I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

    1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

    2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

    30-year long bond yield chart
    10-yr treasury note yield chart
    iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
    ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

    January 30, 2009 at 10:06 PM #339434
    stockstradr
    Participant

    As for making money on treasuries..

    Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

    My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

    That has been quite a money-maker for me.

    I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

    1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

    2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

    30-year long bond yield chart
    10-yr treasury note yield chart
    iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
    ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

    January 30, 2009 at 10:06 PM #339528
    stockstradr
    Participant

    As for making money on treasuries..

    Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

    My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

    That has been quite a money-maker for me.

    I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

    1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

    2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

    30-year long bond yield chart
    10-yr treasury note yield chart
    iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
    ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

    January 30, 2009 at 10:06 PM #339556
    stockstradr
    Participant

    As for making money on treasuries..

    Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

    My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

    That has been quite a money-maker for me.

    I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

    1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

    2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

    30-year long bond yield chart
    10-yr treasury note yield chart
    iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
    ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

    January 30, 2009 at 10:06 PM #339650
    stockstradr
    Participant

    As for making money on treasuries..

    Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

    My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

    That has been quite a money-maker for me.

    I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

    1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

    2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

    30-year long bond yield chart
    10-yr treasury note yield chart
    iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
    ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

    January 30, 2009 at 11:08 PM #339152
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

    January 30, 2009 at 11:08 PM #339479
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

    January 30, 2009 at 11:08 PM #339573
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

    January 30, 2009 at 11:08 PM #339601
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

    January 30, 2009 at 11:08 PM #339695
    bsrsharma
    Participant

    FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

    January 30, 2009 at 11:12 PM #339157
    jficquette
    Participant

    The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

    This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

    The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

    John

    January 30, 2009 at 11:12 PM #339484
    jficquette
    Participant

    The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

    This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

    The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

    John

    January 30, 2009 at 11:12 PM #339578
    jficquette
    Participant

    The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

    This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

    The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

    John

    January 30, 2009 at 11:12 PM #339606
    jficquette
    Participant

    The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

    This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

    The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

    John

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