Old Forum topic deserves re-visit: bubble in treasuries

[stockstradr]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122943629459610297.html

So far, shorting treasuries has been a losing proposition. My ProShares short 7-10 year treasuries ETF is already off by 5%.

[stockstradr]

As for making money on treasuries..

Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

That has been quite a money-maker for me.

I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

30-year long bond yield chart
10-yr treasury note yield chart
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

[stockstradr]

As for making money on treasuries..

Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

That has been quite a money-maker for me.

I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

30-year long bond yield chart
10-yr treasury note yield chart
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

[stockstradr]

As for making money on treasuries..

Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

That has been quite a money-maker for me.

I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

30-year long bond yield chart
10-yr treasury note yield chart
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

[stockstradr]

As for making money on treasuries..

Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

That has been quite a money-maker for me.

I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

30-year long bond yield chart
10-yr treasury note yield chart
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

[stockstradr]

As for making money on treasuries..

Told ya so. US treasuries peaked (yields bottomed) seven days after my initial post of this thread.

My first bet lost me a few percent. Later, I re-shorted with lots more money the ETF “TBT” when yields had climbed from 2.5% up to 2.7% on the 30-year.

That has been quite a money-maker for me.

I’ll bet either NOBODY or maybe one person out of all the members on this entire blog site managed to even make one thin dime on these easy-money bets:

1) long the 20+ year treasuries from mid-Nov to end of Dec (typical gain +30%, example TLT)

2) Short the 20+ year bonds from late Dec until now. (typical gain, so far, +12%, example TBT)

30-year long bond yield chart
10-yr treasury note yield chart
iShares Barclays 20+ Year Treas Bond
ProShares UltraShort Lehman Brothers 20+ Year U.S. Treasury index

[bsrsharma]

FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

[bsrsharma]

FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

[bsrsharma]

FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

[bsrsharma]

FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

[bsrsharma]

FED recently said they may buy all sorts of paper, including treasuries. If they buy a lot of treasuries, what do you gain by shorting? Fed will always outbid you and keep the prices high. You may be better off shorting USD (by buying Gold/Oil futures/Swiss Franc/Yen etc.,). I think there is opportunity in commodities futures as most currencies have nowhere but down to go, long term.

[jficquette]

The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

John

[jficquette]

The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

John

[jficquette]

The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

John

[jficquette]

The Fed is getting the money to buy 30 year bonds to soak up what foreign governments and domestic interests are selling.

This authorization of money to buy these T Bonds will effect transfer the effect of the housing bubble on confidence in the US onto the Fed’s balance sheet.

The Fed will strive to do whatever possible to keep the long term rates down because of its effect on asset prices.

John

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