la jolla and del mar are fairly ‘bubble’ proof. people just have to have that la jolla address to maintain their status symbol. the same would apply for carmel valley/del mar because of the schools.
my uneducated guess would be that you can expect single digit % changes (+ or – over the next year or two) but that the prices in these areas will do relatively well compared to inland areas of the county.
the high end homes will see a big drop, though. i hope good ol’ toni cieri has made her money because she has three signs practically on the same street in del mar. her asking prices are in the 2 – 4 million range. the homes in these ranges will correct first in a big way.
“people just have to have that la jolla address to maintain their status symbol.”
Yes, but they’ve had to have that over the past 10 years at much, much lower prices. Don’t confuse a reason to live somewhere with the absolute price a home will fetch. If/when interest rates go up, simple math is going to dictate these homes decline in real value (whether it’s price or inflation that eats it away).
The Carmel Valley market has already begun it’s correction as sold properties are getting about 10% less than the peak 6-12 months ago. Personally I see Carmel Valley correcting about 30% total, which isn’t bad since it has gone 100% in the last 5 years. But if you bought your Pardee home for 1.5 million it might only fetch just over a million in the next couple years.
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