NY Times infographic on affordability

[ARMwrestling]

Has this been posted to the website before?

http://www.nytimes.com/ref/realestate/20051229_AFFORD_GRAPHIC.html

It’s a great little tool developed by the NY Times and Moody’s, showing that most of the country (when measured by income-to-monthly payment ratios, the most lenient standard possible today) isn’t necessarily in a housing bubble. But run the chart on California and you’ll see a different picture.

Real estate bulls probably don’t want to see the sine-wave nature of this curve– forewarned is forearmed.

[powayseller]

Interesting tool! However, the CA percent-of-income figures should be much higher for the following reasons:
1. The authors assumed an 18% downpayment, and about 80% of CA loans are 100% financed. Thus, the mortgage payment is about 20% higher, right?
2. The authors don’t include property taxes, which have doubled along with home prices.

[Blissful Ignoramus]

Both true, but they also assumed the average rate for “conventional” mortgages (whatever that means). Certainly, when you consider the number of “unconventional” mortgages in CA, the average interest rate in CA must be much lower.

You’re probably right though: I would guess that the estimates for CA are all biased on the low side.

[hs]

Good morning, everybody
Sorry this message has nothing to do with the current subject, but I need some advice from you.
We’ve decided to continue to rent, but want to move to a house instead of an apartment.
Checking with the rental listing in scripps Ranch area, they are all asking pretty high price.I have couple of them on my list here that I am interested in renting for 1 year.
1.$1900 for 3/2.5b, about 1400sqt
2.$1950 for 3/2b about 1300sqt
3.$2000 for 3/2.5b, about 1672sqt.
4.$2200 for 4/2.5b, about 1700sqt

I am thinking to negotiate the price with them. How much should I offer? Any suggestion? I am afraid if I offer with $1/1sqt, they will be offered since it seems scripps ranch is an expensive place to live.
We have been always good tanents.
Any suggestion is welcome.
Thank you in advance.

[powayseller]

You can offer as low as you want, and see what they say. Perhaps those homes are vacant because they are overpriced. How long have they been vacant? One rental 2 doors down from me, which I previewed, $2350, is still vacant. I offered them $2100 in mid-December and asked them to update the kitchen. They declined, and still have no renter. Now they have dual payments, and I bet eventually they’ll reduce their price.
So I wonder if the rental houses are more valuable in Scripps Ranch or if the owners are just trying to get enough money to cover their mortgage. A low-ball offer will make them realize they are overpriced. Are you finding the houses on the MLS? A realtor can send you regular MLS rental listings, and then you can negotiate w/ the listing realtor and not offend the owner.
Have you considered Poway? My kids are also in GATE (you mentioned your daughter is in it), and most Poway schools have very involved PTA and Foundations. Poway schools have the highest test scores (after DelMar and LaJolla). The parents at the high-score schools raise lots of money for the schools, funding PE, art, music, and computer labs. There are lower-score schools, and I would avoid those (South Poway). Poway is a great family area, and sounds a little cheaper. Just a thought.

[teatsonabull]

I concur with Powayseller…see what they say. I’d pay no more than $1 per sq. ft. plus a gardener fee if applicable. The house two doors down from me in RB has been vacant and for rent for nearly SIX months…it seems all the remaining “good” renters went and bought themselves converted apartments (with granite counter-tops, don’t forget ;)…these landlords will call you back begging when they can’t find a renter. Have fun with it and remember–as a renter, you are one of the few remaining people nimble enough to take advantage of the dramatic opportunites we will be seeing here VERY soon. Let’s not sugar coat or doubt ourselves anymore…the game is OVER for the sheeple and the fools. They are becoming very scared and soon will be making even BIGGER mistakes. Good luck. (I doubt you’ll need it.)

[hs]

Thanks for the advice from both of you.
I will give it a try.(I am thinking to bargain about $200 or 300 less and see what the landlord’s reaction is.)
Powayseller, I have to buy in Scripps ranch is because my husband works at downtown. He does not want to commute too far.(we heard after Mercy Rd. exit, usually there is lot of traffic.) Plus only Miramar ranch elementary school offers GATE seminar program in this area. We are renting a 2/2b apartment for $1600(998sqt).Our lease will expire at the end of Feb.
I found those (town)houses on San diego union tribune. Some of them are just listed recently. Price less than $2000 seems pretty popular. Rent in scripps ranch is higher than poway I guess.(Maybe it is closer to downtown?)
Thanks again!

[hs]

This guy says rent is up in the west.

Rents Rise In The West As Occupancy Rates Fall
by Broderick Perkins

Rents in primarily Western markets remained on the rise at the end of 2005 despite unexpected drops in occupancy levels.

All but three of the 29 metropolitan statistical areas (MSAs) in Novato, CA-based RealFacts’ quarterly rent and occupancy survey yielded year-to-year rent increases.

While vacancy-heavy landlords may still offer incentives to get renters in the door, the upward trend in rents means long-term rental contracts are a better deal than month-to-month or shorter term rental contracts for new or moving renters.

Overall, rents were up 3.4 percent in the last quarter of 2005 compared to the same period in 2004, according to RealFacts’s data base of more than 11,450 apartment communities of 100 units or more in a swath of 15 states concentrated to the west of the Mississippi River, but also Florida and Indiana.

Up 7.3 percent in the last year, the rental growth leader was the Riverside, CA, MSA, followed by a 6.6 percent increase in the Los Angeles-Orange counties MSA; 6 percent in Las Vegas, NV; 5.1 percent in Phoenix, AZ; 4.7 percent in Reno, NV, and 4.5 percent in Fresno, CA.

Only Colorado Springs, C0, and Tucson, AZ, saw rental declines, both at 1.4 percent. Rents were flat, remaining unchanged in Oklahoma City, OK, RealFacts reported.

Based primarily on rents for two-bedroom apartments, but including a mix of everything from studios to 4-bedroom townhomes, the highest average rent in RealFacts’ coverage area was $1,459 in Los Angeles.

The City of Angels’ high rent level was followed by the California MSAs of Oxnard, $1,363; five-county San Francisco Bay Area, $1,359; Silicon Valley (San Jose-Santa Clara County); San Diego, $1,254; Vallejo, $1,092 and the Riverside-San Bernardino counties MSA, $1,086.

Cheapest rents were in Tulsa, OK, $529; Oklahoma City, $532; Tucson, $616; Indianapolis, IN, $646; Albuquerque, NM, $666; San Antonio, TX, $667; and Salt Lake City, UT, $680.

As rents rose, occupancy levels ticked up too, but only 0.8 percent in the last quarter of 2005 compared to 2004. An unexpected third-to-fourth quarter occupancy rate decline of 0.5 percent became the first significant decline in eight quarters, since the first quarter of 2004, when the national economy was first showing signs of improvement.

“Seasonally, third quarter occupancy usually goes up so it is not unheard of for the fourth quarter to decrease. But we thought this decline was notable. We don’t have one answer why. It could be different depending on where you go. In San Diego county (where the occupancy rate has been falling all year) there are condo conversions. In other markets people are still buying homes. I don’t think there is one simple answer,” said Chris Bates, sales and marketing director at RealFacts.

“It (the occupancy rate decline) was unusual. It was across the board. We had a 0.2 percent decrease a couple of quarters ago, but (statistically) that was zero. This (the 0.5 percent decline), I think, is statistically significant,” said Bates.

Condo conversions, newly constructed rental apartments, and home buying all impact the supply of rental housing and occupancy rates.

“There is the possible structural change in the rental market as the boom in single-family home purchases has an impact on rental apartment occupancy rates,” RealFacts reported.

Published: January 27, 2006

[rockclimber]

Noticed this uses “median HOUSEHOLD income”. My guess is that household income has risen much faster than salaries over the period considered due to the increase in multiple earners under the same roof (anyone got data on that?). If so, then this analysis is somewhat watered down. Another way to look at it… In SD, for many people, it now takes two incomes to afford the same house that one income could buy in 1980… this is where those of us who lived in SD in 1980 say, “No duh!”

rock

[rockclimber]

Just sold my Scripps Ranch house and was renting it for 3 years prior to good tenants for $2200/mo

4bed, 2.5 bath 2050sqf in Huntington with a view, gardener, community pool, etc.

I guess I always thought I was giving them a good deal, but it looks like I was priced right, eh?

Just wanted to give you a data point…
rock

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