North park flips… relatistic prices?

[sdrealtor]

amen brutha

[pemeliza]

“$534k for a 2/1 under 1000 feet? I’d say that the MH premium is still rather high. Nice kitchen…from the 70’s.
The built-ins are nice but there’s no way I’d pay that much for that place.”

This place closed during the tax credit frenzy so I would say it is not unreasonable that something this would be selling for 450k before this is all over. I guess the point I was trying to make is that mission hills is kinda tanking right now and I would definitely not pay 550k+ for a house in NP a block away from University near a gas station with a 10k home depot kitchen thrown in. See for example,

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100038503-3806_Villa_Terrace_San_Diego_CA_92104

The place on Montecito sold for 300k in 1990 which was the peak of the last bubble but interest rates were also 8-10% so when you factor in the difference in rates the payment is pretty much the same.

As far as the mission hills premium, there is a pretty close house match in north park on Granada that sold for 495k late last year

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3727-Granada-Ave-92104/home/5381818

So maybe there is a 10-15% premium right now for north mission hills. Personally I would pay that premium and get a fixer. You can always fix the house.

[pemeliza]

“$534k for a 2/1 under 1000 feet? I’d say that the MH premium is still rather high. Nice kitchen…from the 70’s.
The built-ins are nice but there’s no way I’d pay that much for that place.”

This place closed during the tax credit frenzy so I would say it is not unreasonable that something this would be selling for 450k before this is all over. I guess the point I was trying to make is that mission hills is kinda tanking right now and I would definitely not pay 550k+ for a house in NP a block away from University near a gas station with a 10k home depot kitchen thrown in. See for example,

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100038503-3806_Villa_Terrace_San_Diego_CA_92104

The place on Montecito sold for 300k in 1990 which was the peak of the last bubble but interest rates were also 8-10% so when you factor in the difference in rates the payment is pretty much the same.

As far as the mission hills premium, there is a pretty close house match in north park on Granada that sold for 495k late last year

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3727-Granada-Ave-92104/home/5381818

So maybe there is a 10-15% premium right now for north mission hills. Personally I would pay that premium and get a fixer. You can always fix the house.

[pemeliza]

“$534k for a 2/1 under 1000 feet? I’d say that the MH premium is still rather high. Nice kitchen…from the 70’s.
The built-ins are nice but there’s no way I’d pay that much for that place.”

This place closed during the tax credit frenzy so I would say it is not unreasonable that something this would be selling for 450k before this is all over. I guess the point I was trying to make is that mission hills is kinda tanking right now and I would definitely not pay 550k+ for a house in NP a block away from University near a gas station with a 10k home depot kitchen thrown in. See for example,

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100038503-3806_Villa_Terrace_San_Diego_CA_92104

The place on Montecito sold for 300k in 1990 which was the peak of the last bubble but interest rates were also 8-10% so when you factor in the difference in rates the payment is pretty much the same.

As far as the mission hills premium, there is a pretty close house match in north park on Granada that sold for 495k late last year

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3727-Granada-Ave-92104/home/5381818

So maybe there is a 10-15% premium right now for north mission hills. Personally I would pay that premium and get a fixer. You can always fix the house.

[pemeliza]

“$534k for a 2/1 under 1000 feet? I’d say that the MH premium is still rather high. Nice kitchen…from the 70’s.
The built-ins are nice but there’s no way I’d pay that much for that place.”

This place closed during the tax credit frenzy so I would say it is not unreasonable that something this would be selling for 450k before this is all over. I guess the point I was trying to make is that mission hills is kinda tanking right now and I would definitely not pay 550k+ for a house in NP a block away from University near a gas station with a 10k home depot kitchen thrown in. See for example,

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100038503-3806_Villa_Terrace_San_Diego_CA_92104

The place on Montecito sold for 300k in 1990 which was the peak of the last bubble but interest rates were also 8-10% so when you factor in the difference in rates the payment is pretty much the same.

As far as the mission hills premium, there is a pretty close house match in north park on Granada that sold for 495k late last year

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3727-Granada-Ave-92104/home/5381818

So maybe there is a 10-15% premium right now for north mission hills. Personally I would pay that premium and get a fixer. You can always fix the house.

[pemeliza]

“$534k for a 2/1 under 1000 feet? I’d say that the MH premium is still rather high. Nice kitchen…from the 70’s.
The built-ins are nice but there’s no way I’d pay that much for that place.”

This place closed during the tax credit frenzy so I would say it is not unreasonable that something this would be selling for 450k before this is all over. I guess the point I was trying to make is that mission hills is kinda tanking right now and I would definitely not pay 550k+ for a house in NP a block away from University near a gas station with a 10k home depot kitchen thrown in. See for example,

http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-100038503-3806_Villa_Terrace_San_Diego_CA_92104

The place on Montecito sold for 300k in 1990 which was the peak of the last bubble but interest rates were also 8-10% so when you factor in the difference in rates the payment is pretty much the same.

As far as the mission hills premium, there is a pretty close house match in north park on Granada that sold for 495k late last year

http://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/3727-Granada-Ave-92104/home/5381818

So maybe there is a 10-15% premium right now for north mission hills. Personally I would pay that premium and get a fixer. You can always fix the house.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]CAR the flippers have little if no impact whatsoever on the pricing. Don’t take it from me. Go to any of the sites, fidelity or priority posting and pick any random day of auction. Then look at the number of homes scheduled for sale on that day and then look at the number actually sold. Today for instance there were originally over 350 homes downtown. As of now there are maybe 40 that are even for sale, all the rest are pushed out. By the end of the day maybe of those 40, I bet more then half will be pushed out. Thus out of those 20 left maybe 10 will be bid on.

Honestly the impact of the flippers is much less then people make them out to be. The impact of the banks behavior with the loan mods DWARFS the flipper impact with respect to available inventory.[/quote]

Yes, agreed.

However, in an inventory-constrained market (which this one is right now), any additional, inorganic demand is going to affect prices.

I’m also more sensitive to it because I’m looking for exactly what most flippers want: old, run-down hoses in good neighborhoods that need a lot of work, and are selling at a discount.

What flippers are willing to pay so they can “granitize” the place and sell to unsuspecting fools with no cash is much higher than what real buyers are willing to pay so they can do basic repairs/upgrades (no granite) and **live in the home** over time.

It’s not just the flippers…it’s the clueless buyers of these flips, with their 3.5% FHA loans (and seller concessions!) who are mesmerized by granite and stainless steel-wrapped junk appliances, who are screwing up this market.

I just wish we could compete with others who have as much to lose as we do.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]CAR the flippers have little if no impact whatsoever on the pricing. Don’t take it from me. Go to any of the sites, fidelity or priority posting and pick any random day of auction. Then look at the number of homes scheduled for sale on that day and then look at the number actually sold. Today for instance there were originally over 350 homes downtown. As of now there are maybe 40 that are even for sale, all the rest are pushed out. By the end of the day maybe of those 40, I bet more then half will be pushed out. Thus out of those 20 left maybe 10 will be bid on.

Honestly the impact of the flippers is much less then people make them out to be. The impact of the banks behavior with the loan mods DWARFS the flipper impact with respect to available inventory.[/quote]

Yes, agreed.

However, in an inventory-constrained market (which this one is right now), any additional, inorganic demand is going to affect prices.

I’m also more sensitive to it because I’m looking for exactly what most flippers want: old, run-down hoses in good neighborhoods that need a lot of work, and are selling at a discount.

What flippers are willing to pay so they can “granitize” the place and sell to unsuspecting fools with no cash is much higher than what real buyers are willing to pay so they can do basic repairs/upgrades (no granite) and **live in the home** over time.

It’s not just the flippers…it’s the clueless buyers of these flips, with their 3.5% FHA loans (and seller concessions!) who are mesmerized by granite and stainless steel-wrapped junk appliances, who are screwing up this market.

I just wish we could compete with others who have as much to lose as we do.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]CAR the flippers have little if no impact whatsoever on the pricing. Don’t take it from me. Go to any of the sites, fidelity or priority posting and pick any random day of auction. Then look at the number of homes scheduled for sale on that day and then look at the number actually sold. Today for instance there were originally over 350 homes downtown. As of now there are maybe 40 that are even for sale, all the rest are pushed out. By the end of the day maybe of those 40, I bet more then half will be pushed out. Thus out of those 20 left maybe 10 will be bid on.

Honestly the impact of the flippers is much less then people make them out to be. The impact of the banks behavior with the loan mods DWARFS the flipper impact with respect to available inventory.[/quote]

Yes, agreed.

However, in an inventory-constrained market (which this one is right now), any additional, inorganic demand is going to affect prices.

I’m also more sensitive to it because I’m looking for exactly what most flippers want: old, run-down hoses in good neighborhoods that need a lot of work, and are selling at a discount.

What flippers are willing to pay so they can “granitize” the place and sell to unsuspecting fools with no cash is much higher than what real buyers are willing to pay so they can do basic repairs/upgrades (no granite) and **live in the home** over time.

It’s not just the flippers…it’s the clueless buyers of these flips, with their 3.5% FHA loans (and seller concessions!) who are mesmerized by granite and stainless steel-wrapped junk appliances, who are screwing up this market.

I just wish we could compete with others who have as much to lose as we do.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]CAR the flippers have little if no impact whatsoever on the pricing. Don’t take it from me. Go to any of the sites, fidelity or priority posting and pick any random day of auction. Then look at the number of homes scheduled for sale on that day and then look at the number actually sold. Today for instance there were originally over 350 homes downtown. As of now there are maybe 40 that are even for sale, all the rest are pushed out. By the end of the day maybe of those 40, I bet more then half will be pushed out. Thus out of those 20 left maybe 10 will be bid on.

Honestly the impact of the flippers is much less then people make them out to be. The impact of the banks behavior with the loan mods DWARFS the flipper impact with respect to available inventory.[/quote]

Yes, agreed.

However, in an inventory-constrained market (which this one is right now), any additional, inorganic demand is going to affect prices.

I’m also more sensitive to it because I’m looking for exactly what most flippers want: old, run-down hoses in good neighborhoods that need a lot of work, and are selling at a discount.

What flippers are willing to pay so they can “granitize” the place and sell to unsuspecting fools with no cash is much higher than what real buyers are willing to pay so they can do basic repairs/upgrades (no granite) and **live in the home** over time.

It’s not just the flippers…it’s the clueless buyers of these flips, with their 3.5% FHA loans (and seller concessions!) who are mesmerized by granite and stainless steel-wrapped junk appliances, who are screwing up this market.

I just wish we could compete with others who have as much to lose as we do.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]CAR the flippers have little if no impact whatsoever on the pricing. Don’t take it from me. Go to any of the sites, fidelity or priority posting and pick any random day of auction. Then look at the number of homes scheduled for sale on that day and then look at the number actually sold. Today for instance there were originally over 350 homes downtown. As of now there are maybe 40 that are even for sale, all the rest are pushed out. By the end of the day maybe of those 40, I bet more then half will be pushed out. Thus out of those 20 left maybe 10 will be bid on.

Honestly the impact of the flippers is much less then people make them out to be. The impact of the banks behavior with the loan mods DWARFS the flipper impact with respect to available inventory.[/quote]

Yes, agreed.

However, in an inventory-constrained market (which this one is right now), any additional, inorganic demand is going to affect prices.

I’m also more sensitive to it because I’m looking for exactly what most flippers want: old, run-down hoses in good neighborhoods that need a lot of work, and are selling at a discount.

What flippers are willing to pay so they can “granitize” the place and sell to unsuspecting fools with no cash is much higher than what real buyers are willing to pay so they can do basic repairs/upgrades (no granite) and **live in the home** over time.

It’s not just the flippers…it’s the clueless buyers of these flips, with their 3.5% FHA loans (and seller concessions!) who are mesmerized by granite and stainless steel-wrapped junk appliances, who are screwing up this market.

I just wish we could compete with others who have as much to lose as we do.

[CA renter]

Just want to add that it’s not only the flippers at the auctions that I’m talking about.

There have been a number of homes that have either been short sales or REOs and they are listed as “contingent” or “pending” upon listing. These often seem to be flippers as well (though not all are flips).

The other aspect is the open-market homes that need a lot of work but are still overpriced for an organic buyer with cash/high down payment. They are priced for flipping/speculating, and they get that price because the flippers later sell them to the FHA crowd mentioned above.

[CA renter]

Just want to add that it’s not only the flippers at the auctions that I’m talking about.

There have been a number of homes that have either been short sales or REOs and they are listed as “contingent” or “pending” upon listing. These often seem to be flippers as well (though not all are flips).

The other aspect is the open-market homes that need a lot of work but are still overpriced for an organic buyer with cash/high down payment. They are priced for flipping/speculating, and they get that price because the flippers later sell them to the FHA crowd mentioned above.

[CA renter]

Just want to add that it’s not only the flippers at the auctions that I’m talking about.

There have been a number of homes that have either been short sales or REOs and they are listed as “contingent” or “pending” upon listing. These often seem to be flippers as well (though not all are flips).

The other aspect is the open-market homes that need a lot of work but are still overpriced for an organic buyer with cash/high down payment. They are priced for flipping/speculating, and they get that price because the flippers later sell them to the FHA crowd mentioned above.

[CA renter]

Just want to add that it’s not only the flippers at the auctions that I’m talking about.

There have been a number of homes that have either been short sales or REOs and they are listed as “contingent” or “pending” upon listing. These often seem to be flippers as well (though not all are flips).

The other aspect is the open-market homes that need a lot of work but are still overpriced for an organic buyer with cash/high down payment. They are priced for flipping/speculating, and they get that price because the flippers later sell them to the FHA crowd mentioned above.

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