North park flips… relatistic prices?

[garysears]

Awesome thread. I share the frustration. A year ago was a MUCH better time to be shopping on the low end. If prices don’t get back where they were I will not ever be buying in San Diego. Part of me thinks there is no way to put off the fundamentals forever but part of me has given up on reality ever asserting itself. I’m tempted to move to Florida and pay cash at 1/3 the price.

I blame the flippers for the lack of reasonably priced inventory, but more the FHA for spiking the demand at the the low end. Until big gov stepped up to fill the lending void deals were close to getting reasonable. Perhaps they are gone. I don’t know. I do know I intend to sign a 1 yr lease soon. I don’t intend to compete against the no/low money down crowd.

[pemeliza]

“Right now, there is a ppsf differential of about 100 bucks between mission hills and North Park, but with substantially more variability ”

If you look at the sales prices and not list prices, I think things are tighter than that. I just took a look at redfin for zip codes 92103 and 92104 market trends for houses.

In 92104 the listing price for houses averages $397 a foot while the sold prices average $421 a foot. The sales to list price 98.13%.

Meanwhile, in 92103 the listing price for houses averages $514 a foot while the sold prices average $429 a foot. The sales to list price is 94.57%.

I realize that these are rough data and 92103 also includes Hillcrest, but the trend can be confirmed if you look at recent sales on a house per house basis. For whatever reason, the ppsf differential between 92103 and 92104 is collapsing for houses.

[pemeliza]

“Right now, there is a ppsf differential of about 100 bucks between mission hills and North Park, but with substantially more variability ”

If you look at the sales prices and not list prices, I think things are tighter than that. I just took a look at redfin for zip codes 92103 and 92104 market trends for houses.

In 92104 the listing price for houses averages $397 a foot while the sold prices average $421 a foot. The sales to list price 98.13%.

Meanwhile, in 92103 the listing price for houses averages $514 a foot while the sold prices average $429 a foot. The sales to list price is 94.57%.

I realize that these are rough data and 92103 also includes Hillcrest, but the trend can be confirmed if you look at recent sales on a house per house basis. For whatever reason, the ppsf differential between 92103 and 92104 is collapsing for houses.

[pemeliza]

“Right now, there is a ppsf differential of about 100 bucks between mission hills and North Park, but with substantially more variability ”

If you look at the sales prices and not list prices, I think things are tighter than that. I just took a look at redfin for zip codes 92103 and 92104 market trends for houses.

In 92104 the listing price for houses averages $397 a foot while the sold prices average $421 a foot. The sales to list price 98.13%.

Meanwhile, in 92103 the listing price for houses averages $514 a foot while the sold prices average $429 a foot. The sales to list price is 94.57%.

I realize that these are rough data and 92103 also includes Hillcrest, but the trend can be confirmed if you look at recent sales on a house per house basis. For whatever reason, the ppsf differential between 92103 and 92104 is collapsing for houses.

[pemeliza]

“Right now, there is a ppsf differential of about 100 bucks between mission hills and North Park, but with substantially more variability ”

If you look at the sales prices and not list prices, I think things are tighter than that. I just took a look at redfin for zip codes 92103 and 92104 market trends for houses.

In 92104 the listing price for houses averages $397 a foot while the sold prices average $421 a foot. The sales to list price 98.13%.

Meanwhile, in 92103 the listing price for houses averages $514 a foot while the sold prices average $429 a foot. The sales to list price is 94.57%.

I realize that these are rough data and 92103 also includes Hillcrest, but the trend can be confirmed if you look at recent sales on a house per house basis. For whatever reason, the ppsf differential between 92103 and 92104 is collapsing for houses.

[pemeliza]

“Right now, there is a ppsf differential of about 100 bucks between mission hills and North Park, but with substantially more variability ”

If you look at the sales prices and not list prices, I think things are tighter than that. I just took a look at redfin for zip codes 92103 and 92104 market trends for houses.

In 92104 the listing price for houses averages $397 a foot while the sold prices average $421 a foot. The sales to list price 98.13%.

Meanwhile, in 92103 the listing price for houses averages $514 a foot while the sold prices average $429 a foot. The sales to list price is 94.57%.

I realize that these are rough data and 92103 also includes Hillcrest, but the trend can be confirmed if you look at recent sales on a house per house basis. For whatever reason, the ppsf differential between 92103 and 92104 is collapsing for houses.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Got a challenge for ya. From your posts it sounds like you are a frustrated buyer losing dozens of houses to flippers. Can you please post the addresses of 3 houses that you lost to flippers that you would have bought? You can also include REO and Short Sales listed contingent or pending as long as you you would have paid the fair market value and not the undermarket sale price an unscrupulous agent might have slipped it through at.

I havent seen any that I think you would have bought and am curious if this is based on real experiences or conjured up due to frustration.[/quote]

Sure. Off the top of my head, there was one on Babilonia that sold for ~$645K at auction. The flipper sold it with little or no improvements in the $900K-$1MM range.

The other one is the house on Park. I don’t know if it was a flipper yet (hasn’t closed and relisted yet), but have good reason to think so.

Both of those would have been interesting to us as a primary residence. I’ve also wanted to buy a rental property in a lower-end area that we could also live in (as a back-up plan) if my deflationary theory is wrong and inflation takes off in the future. There are a number of them — too many to count — in O’side and Escondido that have been swarmed by flippers over the past few years. What the flippers are willing to pay and what long-term owners *with skin in the game* are willing to pay tend to be very different.

Needless to say, I’m a deflationist, but a lot of people out there seem to think that inflation is going to come to their rescue. I know that’s what the PTB are trying to do, but don’t think they’ll be able to succeed without causing some (possibly larger) imbalances and “unexpected” problems. I’m not counting on the govt’s printing press to bail us out of our bad decisions, so am not willing to pay what gamblers and those with nothing to lose are willing to pay.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Got a challenge for ya. From your posts it sounds like you are a frustrated buyer losing dozens of houses to flippers. Can you please post the addresses of 3 houses that you lost to flippers that you would have bought? You can also include REO and Short Sales listed contingent or pending as long as you you would have paid the fair market value and not the undermarket sale price an unscrupulous agent might have slipped it through at.

I havent seen any that I think you would have bought and am curious if this is based on real experiences or conjured up due to frustration.[/quote]

Sure. Off the top of my head, there was one on Babilonia that sold for ~$645K at auction. The flipper sold it with little or no improvements in the $900K-$1MM range.

The other one is the house on Park. I don’t know if it was a flipper yet (hasn’t closed and relisted yet), but have good reason to think so.

Both of those would have been interesting to us as a primary residence. I’ve also wanted to buy a rental property in a lower-end area that we could also live in (as a back-up plan) if my deflationary theory is wrong and inflation takes off in the future. There are a number of them — too many to count — in O’side and Escondido that have been swarmed by flippers over the past few years. What the flippers are willing to pay and what long-term owners *with skin in the game* are willing to pay tend to be very different.

Needless to say, I’m a deflationist, but a lot of people out there seem to think that inflation is going to come to their rescue. I know that’s what the PTB are trying to do, but don’t think they’ll be able to succeed without causing some (possibly larger) imbalances and “unexpected” problems. I’m not counting on the govt’s printing press to bail us out of our bad decisions, so am not willing to pay what gamblers and those with nothing to lose are willing to pay.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Got a challenge for ya. From your posts it sounds like you are a frustrated buyer losing dozens of houses to flippers. Can you please post the addresses of 3 houses that you lost to flippers that you would have bought? You can also include REO and Short Sales listed contingent or pending as long as you you would have paid the fair market value and not the undermarket sale price an unscrupulous agent might have slipped it through at.

I havent seen any that I think you would have bought and am curious if this is based on real experiences or conjured up due to frustration.[/quote]

Sure. Off the top of my head, there was one on Babilonia that sold for ~$645K at auction. The flipper sold it with little or no improvements in the $900K-$1MM range.

The other one is the house on Park. I don’t know if it was a flipper yet (hasn’t closed and relisted yet), but have good reason to think so.

Both of those would have been interesting to us as a primary residence. I’ve also wanted to buy a rental property in a lower-end area that we could also live in (as a back-up plan) if my deflationary theory is wrong and inflation takes off in the future. There are a number of them — too many to count — in O’side and Escondido that have been swarmed by flippers over the past few years. What the flippers are willing to pay and what long-term owners *with skin in the game* are willing to pay tend to be very different.

Needless to say, I’m a deflationist, but a lot of people out there seem to think that inflation is going to come to their rescue. I know that’s what the PTB are trying to do, but don’t think they’ll be able to succeed without causing some (possibly larger) imbalances and “unexpected” problems. I’m not counting on the govt’s printing press to bail us out of our bad decisions, so am not willing to pay what gamblers and those with nothing to lose are willing to pay.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Got a challenge for ya. From your posts it sounds like you are a frustrated buyer losing dozens of houses to flippers. Can you please post the addresses of 3 houses that you lost to flippers that you would have bought? You can also include REO and Short Sales listed contingent or pending as long as you you would have paid the fair market value and not the undermarket sale price an unscrupulous agent might have slipped it through at.

I havent seen any that I think you would have bought and am curious if this is based on real experiences or conjured up due to frustration.[/quote]

Sure. Off the top of my head, there was one on Babilonia that sold for ~$645K at auction. The flipper sold it with little or no improvements in the $900K-$1MM range.

The other one is the house on Park. I don’t know if it was a flipper yet (hasn’t closed and relisted yet), but have good reason to think so.

Both of those would have been interesting to us as a primary residence. I’ve also wanted to buy a rental property in a lower-end area that we could also live in (as a back-up plan) if my deflationary theory is wrong and inflation takes off in the future. There are a number of them — too many to count — in O’side and Escondido that have been swarmed by flippers over the past few years. What the flippers are willing to pay and what long-term owners *with skin in the game* are willing to pay tend to be very different.

Needless to say, I’m a deflationist, but a lot of people out there seem to think that inflation is going to come to their rescue. I know that’s what the PTB are trying to do, but don’t think they’ll be able to succeed without causing some (possibly larger) imbalances and “unexpected” problems. I’m not counting on the govt’s printing press to bail us out of our bad decisions, so am not willing to pay what gamblers and those with nothing to lose are willing to pay.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]CAR
Got a challenge for ya. From your posts it sounds like you are a frustrated buyer losing dozens of houses to flippers. Can you please post the addresses of 3 houses that you lost to flippers that you would have bought? You can also include REO and Short Sales listed contingent or pending as long as you you would have paid the fair market value and not the undermarket sale price an unscrupulous agent might have slipped it through at.

I havent seen any that I think you would have bought and am curious if this is based on real experiences or conjured up due to frustration.[/quote]

Sure. Off the top of my head, there was one on Babilonia that sold for ~$645K at auction. The flipper sold it with little or no improvements in the $900K-$1MM range.

The other one is the house on Park. I don’t know if it was a flipper yet (hasn’t closed and relisted yet), but have good reason to think so.

Both of those would have been interesting to us as a primary residence. I’ve also wanted to buy a rental property in a lower-end area that we could also live in (as a back-up plan) if my deflationary theory is wrong and inflation takes off in the future. There are a number of them — too many to count — in O’side and Escondido that have been swarmed by flippers over the past few years. What the flippers are willing to pay and what long-term owners *with skin in the game* are willing to pay tend to be very different.

Needless to say, I’m a deflationist, but a lot of people out there seem to think that inflation is going to come to their rescue. I know that’s what the PTB are trying to do, but don’t think they’ll be able to succeed without causing some (possibly larger) imbalances and “unexpected” problems. I’m not counting on the govt’s printing press to bail us out of our bad decisions, so am not willing to pay what gamblers and those with nothing to lose are willing to pay.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.

Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.

Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. [/quote]

SDR,

We’re not in disagreement on this at all. BTW, you’re emphasizing auction flips while I’m talking more about the regular short sale, REO, and regular sale flips.

BTW, we can’t buy at the auctions because I don’t have the time to go down there and do all the research just to have a sale cancelled/postponed on me at the last minute. If the sales were going through, and we could count on a listed home actually being sold, we would do this.

I totally feel for you on the auctions. What they’re doing by cancelling and postponing the sales is so very wrong.

If you want to do the research and have one of your runners bid for us, we’d certainly be willing to pay you a fee for it! 😉 I just know there aren’t enough homes that actually make it to auction these days to make it worthwhile.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.

Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.

Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. [/quote]

SDR,

We’re not in disagreement on this at all. BTW, you’re emphasizing auction flips while I’m talking more about the regular short sale, REO, and regular sale flips.

BTW, we can’t buy at the auctions because I don’t have the time to go down there and do all the research just to have a sale cancelled/postponed on me at the last minute. If the sales were going through, and we could count on a listed home actually being sold, we would do this.

I totally feel for you on the auctions. What they’re doing by cancelling and postponing the sales is so very wrong.

If you want to do the research and have one of your runners bid for us, we’d certainly be willing to pay you a fee for it! 😉 I just know there aren’t enough homes that actually make it to auction these days to make it worthwhile.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.

Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.

Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. [/quote]

SDR,

We’re not in disagreement on this at all. BTW, you’re emphasizing auction flips while I’m talking more about the regular short sale, REO, and regular sale flips.

BTW, we can’t buy at the auctions because I don’t have the time to go down there and do all the research just to have a sale cancelled/postponed on me at the last minute. If the sales were going through, and we could count on a listed home actually being sold, we would do this.

I totally feel for you on the auctions. What they’re doing by cancelling and postponing the sales is so very wrong.

If you want to do the research and have one of your runners bid for us, we’d certainly be willing to pay you a fee for it! 😉 I just know there aren’t enough homes that actually make it to auction these days to make it worthwhile.

[CA renter]

[quote=SD Realtor]I understand but I think the picture you have painted is lacking a bit.

Fundamentally you CAN get the home. You can go get a bridge loan from any one of the zillions of hard money lenders out there. You CAN go to the auctions. You CAN do all the homework that is involved, the title work, the legwork, and the risk. You CHOOSE not to.

Second, the numbers are indeed staggering if you really look at them, again, simply go to the websites and look at what actually even gets SOLD, do that for a month daily and look at the true statistics and you will see. Perception is one thing but real numbers are another. [/quote]

SDR,

We’re not in disagreement on this at all. BTW, you’re emphasizing auction flips while I’m talking more about the regular short sale, REO, and regular sale flips.

BTW, we can’t buy at the auctions because I don’t have the time to go down there and do all the research just to have a sale cancelled/postponed on me at the last minute. If the sales were going through, and we could count on a listed home actually being sold, we would do this.

I totally feel for you on the auctions. What they’re doing by cancelling and postponing the sales is so very wrong.

If you want to do the research and have one of your runners bid for us, we’d certainly be willing to pay you a fee for it! 😉 I just know there aren’t enough homes that actually make it to auction these days to make it worthwhile.

[Author]

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