North park flips… relatistic prices?

[SD Realtor]

Andy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).

Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.

[pemeliza]

“You can’t fix square footage. And I’m not about to pay north of a half million for an outdated house that requires north of $50k in ‘fixing’.”

I wasn’t suggesting that the place was a great deal but it is a great street. I was just pointing if a similar size house on a great street in NP is selling for 450-500k, then personally I would spend the extra $$$ to get north mission hills if I was in the market for a home of that type. Right now the homes in NP are selling while homes in MH are pretty much sitting. This suggests to me that the gap between the neighborhoods may be narrowing further. Thus, I would be cautious about buying in NP right now especially at the current prices that as some have pointed out really have not gone down much from the peak in this price range.

[pemeliza]

“You can’t fix square footage. And I’m not about to pay north of a half million for an outdated house that requires north of $50k in ‘fixing’.”

I wasn’t suggesting that the place was a great deal but it is a great street. I was just pointing if a similar size house on a great street in NP is selling for 450-500k, then personally I would spend the extra $$$ to get north mission hills if I was in the market for a home of that type. Right now the homes in NP are selling while homes in MH are pretty much sitting. This suggests to me that the gap between the neighborhoods may be narrowing further. Thus, I would be cautious about buying in NP right now especially at the current prices that as some have pointed out really have not gone down much from the peak in this price range.

[pemeliza]

“You can’t fix square footage. And I’m not about to pay north of a half million for an outdated house that requires north of $50k in ‘fixing’.”

I wasn’t suggesting that the place was a great deal but it is a great street. I was just pointing if a similar size house on a great street in NP is selling for 450-500k, then personally I would spend the extra $$$ to get north mission hills if I was in the market for a home of that type. Right now the homes in NP are selling while homes in MH are pretty much sitting. This suggests to me that the gap between the neighborhoods may be narrowing further. Thus, I would be cautious about buying in NP right now especially at the current prices that as some have pointed out really have not gone down much from the peak in this price range.

[pemeliza]

“You can’t fix square footage. And I’m not about to pay north of a half million for an outdated house that requires north of $50k in ‘fixing’.”

I wasn’t suggesting that the place was a great deal but it is a great street. I was just pointing if a similar size house on a great street in NP is selling for 450-500k, then personally I would spend the extra $$$ to get north mission hills if I was in the market for a home of that type. Right now the homes in NP are selling while homes in MH are pretty much sitting. This suggests to me that the gap between the neighborhoods may be narrowing further. Thus, I would be cautious about buying in NP right now especially at the current prices that as some have pointed out really have not gone down much from the peak in this price range.

[pemeliza]

“You can’t fix square footage. And I’m not about to pay north of a half million for an outdated house that requires north of $50k in ‘fixing’.”

I wasn’t suggesting that the place was a great deal but it is a great street. I was just pointing if a similar size house on a great street in NP is selling for 450-500k, then personally I would spend the extra $$$ to get north mission hills if I was in the market for a home of that type. Right now the homes in NP are selling while homes in MH are pretty much sitting. This suggests to me that the gap between the neighborhoods may be narrowing further. Thus, I would be cautious about buying in NP right now especially at the current prices that as some have pointed out really have not gone down much from the peak in this price range.

[andymajumder]

[quote=SD Realtor]Andy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).

Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.[/quote]

Thanks SD, I was wondering how long can this go on…but you are right if they can keep this on for another 5 yrs, gradually time i.e. some gradual inflation will take care of the underwater properties and there may never be any significant declines from current prices…though I don’t see how prices can rise much unless we have severe inflation somewhere down the line. The shadow inventory should atleast act as a headwind to price increase.

I guess as a 30yr old renter I am a loser on all fronts….quite sure by the time I hit retirement social security, medicare will barely meet any of our needs even though wife and myself pay 1K a month for current retirees and will continue to pay proabably even more in future. At least we are aware of the situation and can plan accordingly, have some time, just wish everybody in their 20s and 30s would wake to this realty…

[andymajumder]

[quote=SD Realtor]Andy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).

Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.[/quote]

Thanks SD, I was wondering how long can this go on…but you are right if they can keep this on for another 5 yrs, gradually time i.e. some gradual inflation will take care of the underwater properties and there may never be any significant declines from current prices…though I don’t see how prices can rise much unless we have severe inflation somewhere down the line. The shadow inventory should atleast act as a headwind to price increase.

I guess as a 30yr old renter I am a loser on all fronts….quite sure by the time I hit retirement social security, medicare will barely meet any of our needs even though wife and myself pay 1K a month for current retirees and will continue to pay proabably even more in future. At least we are aware of the situation and can plan accordingly, have some time, just wish everybody in their 20s and 30s would wake to this realty…

[andymajumder]

[quote=SD Realtor]Andy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).

Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.[/quote]

Thanks SD, I was wondering how long can this go on…but you are right if they can keep this on for another 5 yrs, gradually time i.e. some gradual inflation will take care of the underwater properties and there may never be any significant declines from current prices…though I don’t see how prices can rise much unless we have severe inflation somewhere down the line. The shadow inventory should atleast act as a headwind to price increase.

I guess as a 30yr old renter I am a loser on all fronts….quite sure by the time I hit retirement social security, medicare will barely meet any of our needs even though wife and myself pay 1K a month for current retirees and will continue to pay proabably even more in future. At least we are aware of the situation and can plan accordingly, have some time, just wish everybody in their 20s and 30s would wake to this realty…

[andymajumder]

[quote=SD Realtor]Andy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).

Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.[/quote]

Thanks SD, I was wondering how long can this go on…but you are right if they can keep this on for another 5 yrs, gradually time i.e. some gradual inflation will take care of the underwater properties and there may never be any significant declines from current prices…though I don’t see how prices can rise much unless we have severe inflation somewhere down the line. The shadow inventory should atleast act as a headwind to price increase.

I guess as a 30yr old renter I am a loser on all fronts….quite sure by the time I hit retirement social security, medicare will barely meet any of our needs even though wife and myself pay 1K a month for current retirees and will continue to pay proabably even more in future. At least we are aware of the situation and can plan accordingly, have some time, just wish everybody in their 20s and 30s would wake to this realty…

[andymajumder]

[quote=SD Realtor]Andy what is happening is that the number of homes that do NOT make it to the actual auction has risen. When we started seriously attending and purchasing homes about 13 months ago the number of homes that actually made it to the auction and were available for bidding was about twice the number that we see nowadays. Now dont get me wrong, back then there would still be 350 properties scheduled on a given day and maybe 40 of them would get to actual bidding. The rest would be postponed. Now instead of 40 you see 20 for the same amount. I have also tracked homes where the trustee sale was cancelled but the home was never for sale (at least not on the MLS).

Understanding the end game is quite easy. The banks are doing what they are mandated to do. They will be backstopped by the govt. That was played out awhile ago. Rich posted ahwile back about shades of shadow inventory. In the end it doesn’t matter because it is about buying time. Look, if you abstract the problem it is not really any different then unfunded entitlements right? Housing stock, medicare, social security… there is not really any solution in place to deal with the underlying problem, just measures to pus the problem out of the spotlight of the present.[/quote]

Thanks SD, I was wondering how long can this go on…but you are right if they can keep this on for another 5 yrs, gradually time i.e. some gradual inflation will take care of the underwater properties and there may never be any significant declines from current prices…though I don’t see how prices can rise much unless we have severe inflation somewhere down the line. The shadow inventory should atleast act as a headwind to price increase.

I guess as a 30yr old renter I am a loser on all fronts….quite sure by the time I hit retirement social security, medicare will barely meet any of our needs even though wife and myself pay 1K a month for current retirees and will continue to pay proabably even more in future. At least we are aware of the situation and can plan accordingly, have some time, just wish everybody in their 20s and 30s would wake to this realty…

[SD Realtor]

Yes I agree Andy. I am not saying prices are going to go either way, I just try to interpret the data. The data from the auctions suggests it will be harder, much harder for flippers to make money, myself included. However overall re market data shows inventory growth in certain areas which bodes well for buyers. Lets see what happens. Again, the game is rigged but even rigged games break when the tipping point is reached. My consistent message is that interest rates will be the big catalyst behind the next big move down. However we could see moderate downward movement if inventory keeps growing.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I agree Andy. I am not saying prices are going to go either way, I just try to interpret the data. The data from the auctions suggests it will be harder, much harder for flippers to make money, myself included. However overall re market data shows inventory growth in certain areas which bodes well for buyers. Lets see what happens. Again, the game is rigged but even rigged games break when the tipping point is reached. My consistent message is that interest rates will be the big catalyst behind the next big move down. However we could see moderate downward movement if inventory keeps growing.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I agree Andy. I am not saying prices are going to go either way, I just try to interpret the data. The data from the auctions suggests it will be harder, much harder for flippers to make money, myself included. However overall re market data shows inventory growth in certain areas which bodes well for buyers. Lets see what happens. Again, the game is rigged but even rigged games break when the tipping point is reached. My consistent message is that interest rates will be the big catalyst behind the next big move down. However we could see moderate downward movement if inventory keeps growing.

[SD Realtor]

Yes I agree Andy. I am not saying prices are going to go either way, I just try to interpret the data. The data from the auctions suggests it will be harder, much harder for flippers to make money, myself included. However overall re market data shows inventory growth in certain areas which bodes well for buyers. Lets see what happens. Again, the game is rigged but even rigged games break when the tipping point is reached. My consistent message is that interest rates will be the big catalyst behind the next big move down. However we could see moderate downward movement if inventory keeps growing.

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