North County Coastal Market-Why so sticky?

[sdrealtor]

FWIW, there were no lines in 1999/2000 around here. I bought in 1999 and when the super prime lots were released they went the 1st day to people who were waiting. The other houses in phases took several weeks to sell. In the phase release I bought in, there were 11 homes of which 3 sold immediately. We bought the 4th best one available in that phase 2 weeks after it was released. we also had about a dozen unsold homes to choose from that were in previous releases that were still available and offering incentives.

[pemeliza]

“Encinitas proper has been less subject to this it would seem. What do those numbers look like?”

I am not sure what you mean by “Encinitas proper” but I can say that in the late 90’s you could buy Encinitas houses west of I-5 in the 200-300k range. Major appreciation there over the last decade.

“Remember that 1997/1998-2001 marked the beginning of the bubble. People were already standing in lines to buy houses in 1999/2000 here.”

That is a big reach CAR. Prices were dirt cheap in the 97/98 time frame. 5000+ sq. ft. houses on 1/2 acre lots in the “Ranch” were selling in the 600-700k range.

“There is only a finite coastal space. Those that want it pay.”

I think in the case of Enc./South Cbad there are 4 major factors contributing to the rareness/demand.

1.) Coastal Lifestyle
2.) Top Schools
3.) Newer housing stock and infrastructure.
4.) Location just within reach of Sorrento Valley.

[pemeliza]

“Encinitas proper has been less subject to this it would seem. What do those numbers look like?”

I am not sure what you mean by “Encinitas proper” but I can say that in the late 90’s you could buy Encinitas houses west of I-5 in the 200-300k range. Major appreciation there over the last decade.

“Remember that 1997/1998-2001 marked the beginning of the bubble. People were already standing in lines to buy houses in 1999/2000 here.”

That is a big reach CAR. Prices were dirt cheap in the 97/98 time frame. 5000+ sq. ft. houses on 1/2 acre lots in the “Ranch” were selling in the 600-700k range.

“There is only a finite coastal space. Those that want it pay.”

I think in the case of Enc./South Cbad there are 4 major factors contributing to the rareness/demand.

1.) Coastal Lifestyle
2.) Top Schools
3.) Newer housing stock and infrastructure.
4.) Location just within reach of Sorrento Valley.

[pemeliza]

“Encinitas proper has been less subject to this it would seem. What do those numbers look like?”

I am not sure what you mean by “Encinitas proper” but I can say that in the late 90’s you could buy Encinitas houses west of I-5 in the 200-300k range. Major appreciation there over the last decade.

“Remember that 1997/1998-2001 marked the beginning of the bubble. People were already standing in lines to buy houses in 1999/2000 here.”

That is a big reach CAR. Prices were dirt cheap in the 97/98 time frame. 5000+ sq. ft. houses on 1/2 acre lots in the “Ranch” were selling in the 600-700k range.

“There is only a finite coastal space. Those that want it pay.”

I think in the case of Enc./South Cbad there are 4 major factors contributing to the rareness/demand.

1.) Coastal Lifestyle
2.) Top Schools
3.) Newer housing stock and infrastructure.
4.) Location just within reach of Sorrento Valley.

[pemeliza]

“Encinitas proper has been less subject to this it would seem. What do those numbers look like?”

I am not sure what you mean by “Encinitas proper” but I can say that in the late 90’s you could buy Encinitas houses west of I-5 in the 200-300k range. Major appreciation there over the last decade.

“Remember that 1997/1998-2001 marked the beginning of the bubble. People were already standing in lines to buy houses in 1999/2000 here.”

That is a big reach CAR. Prices were dirt cheap in the 97/98 time frame. 5000+ sq. ft. houses on 1/2 acre lots in the “Ranch” were selling in the 600-700k range.

“There is only a finite coastal space. Those that want it pay.”

I think in the case of Enc./South Cbad there are 4 major factors contributing to the rareness/demand.

1.) Coastal Lifestyle
2.) Top Schools
3.) Newer housing stock and infrastructure.
4.) Location just within reach of Sorrento Valley.

[pemeliza]

“Encinitas proper has been less subject to this it would seem. What do those numbers look like?”

I am not sure what you mean by “Encinitas proper” but I can say that in the late 90’s you could buy Encinitas houses west of I-5 in the 200-300k range. Major appreciation there over the last decade.

“Remember that 1997/1998-2001 marked the beginning of the bubble. People were already standing in lines to buy houses in 1999/2000 here.”

That is a big reach CAR. Prices were dirt cheap in the 97/98 time frame. 5000+ sq. ft. houses on 1/2 acre lots in the “Ranch” were selling in the 600-700k range.

“There is only a finite coastal space. Those that want it pay.”

I think in the case of Enc./South Cbad there are 4 major factors contributing to the rareness/demand.

1.) Coastal Lifestyle
2.) Top Schools
3.) Newer housing stock and infrastructure.
4.) Location just within reach of Sorrento Valley.

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]
550K to 700K now 450K to 600K
700K to 850K now 600K to 700K
850K to 1M now 700K to 850K
1M to 1.25M now 850K to 1M
1.25M to 1.5M now 1M to 1.2M
[/quote]

OK. That’s useful. Thanks. Looks like it’s down 15-20%, roughly. Not sure I really have any follow-up questions now that I htink about it. Just trying to understand the market up there.

One thought I have is – I, personally, don’t understand why that place is so expensive in the first place. It isn’t my cup of tea. I’d rather live in an 800K UC house than an 800K house in those zip codes. It is too far north for me, which means a bad commute, and nothing to do. So, I don’t have a handle on that market at all.

Here’s a Q for you – how much for a small house (1700-2000 sq. ft) on a 10K sq. ft canyon lot up there? Do houses that small even exist ?

I still object to your concept that sales are down because there is not enough inventory. That just doesn’t make sense, especially in light of the 20% reduction over the time period in which both sales and prices were falling. Though you are probably seeing a much better balance in supply/demand now, with both down significantly from where they once were.

Also, the dichotomoy in the economy is fascinating to me. Some have been devastated, while others are totally unaffected or thriving. I was just pondering this today. It’s almost like there are two economies out there. I’m not sure exactly what separates them.

So, up or down for the next 2 years ?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]
550K to 700K now 450K to 600K
700K to 850K now 600K to 700K
850K to 1M now 700K to 850K
1M to 1.25M now 850K to 1M
1.25M to 1.5M now 1M to 1.2M
[/quote]

OK. That’s useful. Thanks. Looks like it’s down 15-20%, roughly. Not sure I really have any follow-up questions now that I htink about it. Just trying to understand the market up there.

One thought I have is – I, personally, don’t understand why that place is so expensive in the first place. It isn’t my cup of tea. I’d rather live in an 800K UC house than an 800K house in those zip codes. It is too far north for me, which means a bad commute, and nothing to do. So, I don’t have a handle on that market at all.

Here’s a Q for you – how much for a small house (1700-2000 sq. ft) on a 10K sq. ft canyon lot up there? Do houses that small even exist ?

I still object to your concept that sales are down because there is not enough inventory. That just doesn’t make sense, especially in light of the 20% reduction over the time period in which both sales and prices were falling. Though you are probably seeing a much better balance in supply/demand now, with both down significantly from where they once were.

Also, the dichotomoy in the economy is fascinating to me. Some have been devastated, while others are totally unaffected or thriving. I was just pondering this today. It’s almost like there are two economies out there. I’m not sure exactly what separates them.

So, up or down for the next 2 years ?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]
550K to 700K now 450K to 600K
700K to 850K now 600K to 700K
850K to 1M now 700K to 850K
1M to 1.25M now 850K to 1M
1.25M to 1.5M now 1M to 1.2M
[/quote]

OK. That’s useful. Thanks. Looks like it’s down 15-20%, roughly. Not sure I really have any follow-up questions now that I htink about it. Just trying to understand the market up there.

One thought I have is – I, personally, don’t understand why that place is so expensive in the first place. It isn’t my cup of tea. I’d rather live in an 800K UC house than an 800K house in those zip codes. It is too far north for me, which means a bad commute, and nothing to do. So, I don’t have a handle on that market at all.

Here’s a Q for you – how much for a small house (1700-2000 sq. ft) on a 10K sq. ft canyon lot up there? Do houses that small even exist ?

I still object to your concept that sales are down because there is not enough inventory. That just doesn’t make sense, especially in light of the 20% reduction over the time period in which both sales and prices were falling. Though you are probably seeing a much better balance in supply/demand now, with both down significantly from where they once were.

Also, the dichotomoy in the economy is fascinating to me. Some have been devastated, while others are totally unaffected or thriving. I was just pondering this today. It’s almost like there are two economies out there. I’m not sure exactly what separates them.

So, up or down for the next 2 years ?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]
550K to 700K now 450K to 600K
700K to 850K now 600K to 700K
850K to 1M now 700K to 850K
1M to 1.25M now 850K to 1M
1.25M to 1.5M now 1M to 1.2M
[/quote]

OK. That’s useful. Thanks. Looks like it’s down 15-20%, roughly. Not sure I really have any follow-up questions now that I htink about it. Just trying to understand the market up there.

One thought I have is – I, personally, don’t understand why that place is so expensive in the first place. It isn’t my cup of tea. I’d rather live in an 800K UC house than an 800K house in those zip codes. It is too far north for me, which means a bad commute, and nothing to do. So, I don’t have a handle on that market at all.

Here’s a Q for you – how much for a small house (1700-2000 sq. ft) on a 10K sq. ft canyon lot up there? Do houses that small even exist ?

I still object to your concept that sales are down because there is not enough inventory. That just doesn’t make sense, especially in light of the 20% reduction over the time period in which both sales and prices were falling. Though you are probably seeing a much better balance in supply/demand now, with both down significantly from where they once were.

Also, the dichotomoy in the economy is fascinating to me. Some have been devastated, while others are totally unaffected or thriving. I was just pondering this today. It’s almost like there are two economies out there. I’m not sure exactly what separates them.

So, up or down for the next 2 years ?

[sdduuuude]

[quote=sdrealtor]
550K to 700K now 450K to 600K
700K to 850K now 600K to 700K
850K to 1M now 700K to 850K
1M to 1.25M now 850K to 1M
1.25M to 1.5M now 1M to 1.2M
[/quote]

OK. That’s useful. Thanks. Looks like it’s down 15-20%, roughly. Not sure I really have any follow-up questions now that I htink about it. Just trying to understand the market up there.

One thought I have is – I, personally, don’t understand why that place is so expensive in the first place. It isn’t my cup of tea. I’d rather live in an 800K UC house than an 800K house in those zip codes. It is too far north for me, which means a bad commute, and nothing to do. So, I don’t have a handle on that market at all.

Here’s a Q for you – how much for a small house (1700-2000 sq. ft) on a 10K sq. ft canyon lot up there? Do houses that small even exist ?

I still object to your concept that sales are down because there is not enough inventory. That just doesn’t make sense, especially in light of the 20% reduction over the time period in which both sales and prices were falling. Though you are probably seeing a much better balance in supply/demand now, with both down significantly from where they once were.

Also, the dichotomoy in the economy is fascinating to me. Some have been devastated, while others are totally unaffected or thriving. I was just pondering this today. It’s almost like there are two economies out there. I’m not sure exactly what separates them.

So, up or down for the next 2 years ?

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Is it really that complex? Total housing stock went up by a lot, yet resale went down by a good 35% compare to 1999. How do you explain that? BTW, new construction didn’t “add” to the complexity. That complexity has always been there. There were construction back then too, so that variable didn’t change.[/quote]Within a single post you say new housing stock “went up by a lot,” so need to factor that in. Then you say that it’s always been there (“that variable didn’t change”), suggesting we can safely ignore the effect on new home construction.

So, I’m confused. Which is it?

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Is it really that complex? Total housing stock went up by a lot, yet resale went down by a good 35% compare to 1999. How do you explain that? BTW, new construction didn’t “add” to the complexity. That complexity has always been there. There were construction back then too, so that variable didn’t change.[/quote]Within a single post you say new housing stock “went up by a lot,” so need to factor that in. Then you say that it’s always been there (“that variable didn’t change”), suggesting we can safely ignore the effect on new home construction.

So, I’m confused. Which is it?

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Is it really that complex? Total housing stock went up by a lot, yet resale went down by a good 35% compare to 1999. How do you explain that? BTW, new construction didn’t “add” to the complexity. That complexity has always been there. There were construction back then too, so that variable didn’t change.[/quote]Within a single post you say new housing stock “went up by a lot,” so need to factor that in. Then you say that it’s always been there (“that variable didn’t change”), suggesting we can safely ignore the effect on new home construction.

So, I’m confused. Which is it?

[sdcellar]

[quote=AN]Is it really that complex? Total housing stock went up by a lot, yet resale went down by a good 35% compare to 1999. How do you explain that? BTW, new construction didn’t “add” to the complexity. That complexity has always been there. There were construction back then too, so that variable didn’t change.[/quote]Within a single post you say new housing stock “went up by a lot,” so need to factor that in. Then you say that it’s always been there (“that variable didn’t change”), suggesting we can safely ignore the effect on new home construction.

So, I’m confused. Which is it?

[Author]

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