North County Coastal Market-Why so sticky?

[SD Realtor]

“I’m still not buying it. Realtors who sell in higher priced areas will see more than their share of people with a lot of money. But as a percentage of the total poplulation it’s a very small number of people.”

Trauma centers see a lot of traumas. That doesn’t make a trauma that common.”

JohnAlt you don’t have to buy anything. Your own statement confirms what I said. San Diego as a whole simply is an expensive place to live. It costs more here and it will always cost more here. Conversely more people will be priced out of housing. In fact because of the climate more people will indeed spend more. It may not be important to you but it is to them. They will live coastal and those that don’t wanna spend that money will live inland or in condos.

That is the point of the entire post to begin with. There is only a finite coastal space. Those that want it pay. Those that hope for it to go down to their own level of affordability may get lucky but probably will not.

[sdcellar]

Okay, there’s a lot here to work with and you wanted some brouhaha, so I’m going to do my best to play along. First and foremost, though, I do want to thank you for bringing focus back to local real estate. Let’s start with the easy stuff…

*** Anecdote Alert ***

Okay, so you know a guy who sounds to be decidedly more wealthy than he appears. There have always been people like this and I’m sure there will continue to be.

Bill Gates was a fantastically nerdy fellow even though he does seem a bit more presentable in public these days. We probably have Melinda to thank for that.

In popular culture, you might reference the Beverly Hillbillies, Pretty Woman, Fresh Prince of Bel Air and Trading Places.

Of course there are people with more money than you’d think based simply on appearance. There are also people with less. Anecdotally, I know people who have gone from one end spectrum to the other (both up and down) in the course of the last five years. Some I’ve worked with, some were my neighbors. Some I suspect never really had much in the way of positive net worth in the first place.

What I think does merit consideration is the state change and if I were to guess (and I am indeed guessing), the number of people with money has decreased in the past couple of years rather than increased.

You’ve long contested that there are more people out there with money than most people think and Target guy provides a prime example. I’ll bite and say, sure you’ve been right all along, but there are less of his kind today.

[sdcellar]

Okay, there’s a lot here to work with and you wanted some brouhaha, so I’m going to do my best to play along. First and foremost, though, I do want to thank you for bringing focus back to local real estate. Let’s start with the easy stuff…

*** Anecdote Alert ***

Okay, so you know a guy who sounds to be decidedly more wealthy than he appears. There have always been people like this and I’m sure there will continue to be.

Bill Gates was a fantastically nerdy fellow even though he does seem a bit more presentable in public these days. We probably have Melinda to thank for that.

In popular culture, you might reference the Beverly Hillbillies, Pretty Woman, Fresh Prince of Bel Air and Trading Places.

Of course there are people with more money than you’d think based simply on appearance. There are also people with less. Anecdotally, I know people who have gone from one end spectrum to the other (both up and down) in the course of the last five years. Some I’ve worked with, some were my neighbors. Some I suspect never really had much in the way of positive net worth in the first place.

What I think does merit consideration is the state change and if I were to guess (and I am indeed guessing), the number of people with money has decreased in the past couple of years rather than increased.

You’ve long contested that there are more people out there with money than most people think and Target guy provides a prime example. I’ll bite and say, sure you’ve been right all along, but there are less of his kind today.

[sdcellar]

Okay, there’s a lot here to work with and you wanted some brouhaha, so I’m going to do my best to play along. First and foremost, though, I do want to thank you for bringing focus back to local real estate. Let’s start with the easy stuff…

*** Anecdote Alert ***

Okay, so you know a guy who sounds to be decidedly more wealthy than he appears. There have always been people like this and I’m sure there will continue to be.

Bill Gates was a fantastically nerdy fellow even though he does seem a bit more presentable in public these days. We probably have Melinda to thank for that.

In popular culture, you might reference the Beverly Hillbillies, Pretty Woman, Fresh Prince of Bel Air and Trading Places.

Of course there are people with more money than you’d think based simply on appearance. There are also people with less. Anecdotally, I know people who have gone from one end spectrum to the other (both up and down) in the course of the last five years. Some I’ve worked with, some were my neighbors. Some I suspect never really had much in the way of positive net worth in the first place.

What I think does merit consideration is the state change and if I were to guess (and I am indeed guessing), the number of people with money has decreased in the past couple of years rather than increased.

You’ve long contested that there are more people out there with money than most people think and Target guy provides a prime example. I’ll bite and say, sure you’ve been right all along, but there are less of his kind today.

[sdcellar]

Okay, there’s a lot here to work with and you wanted some brouhaha, so I’m going to do my best to play along. First and foremost, though, I do want to thank you for bringing focus back to local real estate. Let’s start with the easy stuff…

*** Anecdote Alert ***

Okay, so you know a guy who sounds to be decidedly more wealthy than he appears. There have always been people like this and I’m sure there will continue to be.

Bill Gates was a fantastically nerdy fellow even though he does seem a bit more presentable in public these days. We probably have Melinda to thank for that.

In popular culture, you might reference the Beverly Hillbillies, Pretty Woman, Fresh Prince of Bel Air and Trading Places.

Of course there are people with more money than you’d think based simply on appearance. There are also people with less. Anecdotally, I know people who have gone from one end spectrum to the other (both up and down) in the course of the last five years. Some I’ve worked with, some were my neighbors. Some I suspect never really had much in the way of positive net worth in the first place.

What I think does merit consideration is the state change and if I were to guess (and I am indeed guessing), the number of people with money has decreased in the past couple of years rather than increased.

You’ve long contested that there are more people out there with money than most people think and Target guy provides a prime example. I’ll bite and say, sure you’ve been right all along, but there are less of his kind today.

[sdcellar]

Okay, there’s a lot here to work with and you wanted some brouhaha, so I’m going to do my best to play along. First and foremost, though, I do want to thank you for bringing focus back to local real estate. Let’s start with the easy stuff…

*** Anecdote Alert ***

Okay, so you know a guy who sounds to be decidedly more wealthy than he appears. There have always been people like this and I’m sure there will continue to be.

Bill Gates was a fantastically nerdy fellow even though he does seem a bit more presentable in public these days. We probably have Melinda to thank for that.

In popular culture, you might reference the Beverly Hillbillies, Pretty Woman, Fresh Prince of Bel Air and Trading Places.

Of course there are people with more money than you’d think based simply on appearance. There are also people with less. Anecdotally, I know people who have gone from one end spectrum to the other (both up and down) in the course of the last five years. Some I’ve worked with, some were my neighbors. Some I suspect never really had much in the way of positive net worth in the first place.

What I think does merit consideration is the state change and if I were to guess (and I am indeed guessing), the number of people with money has decreased in the past couple of years rather than increased.

You’ve long contested that there are more people out there with money than most people think and Target guy provides a prime example. I’ll bite and say, sure you’ve been right all along, but there are less of his kind today.

[sdcellar]

Okay, next.

*** NTMI Alert ***

Eight offers on one house for $900,000 in three days. What does this mean in isolation? There are also $900,000 houses in north county coastal with zero offers. The latter are, of course, overpriced.

I suspect, specifically because you are knowledgeable, that the particular house you’re helping your client with is a pretty darn good deal at $900; probably something that would have sold for something like $1.3 million not too long ago.

There’s a lot more I could conject here, but again, simply not enough information to really determine what your example means. I do understand that you’re limited in what you can say however.

[sdcellar]

Okay, next.

*** NTMI Alert ***

Eight offers on one house for $900,000 in three days. What does this mean in isolation? There are also $900,000 houses in north county coastal with zero offers. The latter are, of course, overpriced.

I suspect, specifically because you are knowledgeable, that the particular house you’re helping your client with is a pretty darn good deal at $900; probably something that would have sold for something like $1.3 million not too long ago.

There’s a lot more I could conject here, but again, simply not enough information to really determine what your example means. I do understand that you’re limited in what you can say however.

[sdcellar]

Okay, next.

*** NTMI Alert ***

Eight offers on one house for $900,000 in three days. What does this mean in isolation? There are also $900,000 houses in north county coastal with zero offers. The latter are, of course, overpriced.

I suspect, specifically because you are knowledgeable, that the particular house you’re helping your client with is a pretty darn good deal at $900; probably something that would have sold for something like $1.3 million not too long ago.

There’s a lot more I could conject here, but again, simply not enough information to really determine what your example means. I do understand that you’re limited in what you can say however.

[sdcellar]

Okay, next.

*** NTMI Alert ***

Eight offers on one house for $900,000 in three days. What does this mean in isolation? There are also $900,000 houses in north county coastal with zero offers. The latter are, of course, overpriced.

I suspect, specifically because you are knowledgeable, that the particular house you’re helping your client with is a pretty darn good deal at $900; probably something that would have sold for something like $1.3 million not too long ago.

There’s a lot more I could conject here, but again, simply not enough information to really determine what your example means. I do understand that you’re limited in what you can say however.

[sdcellar]

Okay, next.

*** NTMI Alert ***

Eight offers on one house for $900,000 in three days. What does this mean in isolation? There are also $900,000 houses in north county coastal with zero offers. The latter are, of course, overpriced.

I suspect, specifically because you are knowledgeable, that the particular house you’re helping your client with is a pretty darn good deal at $900; probably something that would have sold for something like $1.3 million not too long ago.

There’s a lot more I could conject here, but again, simply not enough information to really determine what your example means. I do understand that you’re limited in what you can say however.

[sdduuuude]

So, sdr, I’m hoping you can clarify something for me.

Lets start by breaking your market up into price segments. These are prices as of the peak – say 2005 or 2006, whenever you say the peak is.

Lets say at the peak, price ranges were:
500K – 750K,
750 – 1M,
1.25 – 1.5,
1.5M – 2M, and
2M – 3M.

(Anything higher doesn’t register with me and is such a small number of unique sales, it’s hard to quantify.)

To what levels would you say those ranges have shifted today? And in 2 years, where do you think they’ll be ?

Ranges don’t have to stay the same size. i.e. 1M can move to 900K, while 1.5M can move to 1.2M.

Anyone can play, by the way. Lets keep it to only sdr’s zip codes for now.

Thanks. I’ll have follow-on Q’s for you after this.

[sdduuuude]

So, sdr, I’m hoping you can clarify something for me.

Lets start by breaking your market up into price segments. These are prices as of the peak – say 2005 or 2006, whenever you say the peak is.

Lets say at the peak, price ranges were:
500K – 750K,
750 – 1M,
1.25 – 1.5,
1.5M – 2M, and
2M – 3M.

(Anything higher doesn’t register with me and is such a small number of unique sales, it’s hard to quantify.)

To what levels would you say those ranges have shifted today? And in 2 years, where do you think they’ll be ?

Ranges don’t have to stay the same size. i.e. 1M can move to 900K, while 1.5M can move to 1.2M.

Anyone can play, by the way. Lets keep it to only sdr’s zip codes for now.

Thanks. I’ll have follow-on Q’s for you after this.

[sdduuuude]

So, sdr, I’m hoping you can clarify something for me.

Lets start by breaking your market up into price segments. These are prices as of the peak – say 2005 or 2006, whenever you say the peak is.

Lets say at the peak, price ranges were:
500K – 750K,
750 – 1M,
1.25 – 1.5,
1.5M – 2M, and
2M – 3M.

(Anything higher doesn’t register with me and is such a small number of unique sales, it’s hard to quantify.)

To what levels would you say those ranges have shifted today? And in 2 years, where do you think they’ll be ?

Ranges don’t have to stay the same size. i.e. 1M can move to 900K, while 1.5M can move to 1.2M.

Anyone can play, by the way. Lets keep it to only sdr’s zip codes for now.

Thanks. I’ll have follow-on Q’s for you after this.

[sdduuuude]

So, sdr, I’m hoping you can clarify something for me.

Lets start by breaking your market up into price segments. These are prices as of the peak – say 2005 or 2006, whenever you say the peak is.

Lets say at the peak, price ranges were:
500K – 750K,
750 – 1M,
1.25 – 1.5,
1.5M – 2M, and
2M – 3M.

(Anything higher doesn’t register with me and is such a small number of unique sales, it’s hard to quantify.)

To what levels would you say those ranges have shifted today? And in 2 years, where do you think they’ll be ?

Ranges don’t have to stay the same size. i.e. 1M can move to 900K, while 1.5M can move to 1.2M.

Anyone can play, by the way. Lets keep it to only sdr’s zip codes for now.

Thanks. I’ll have follow-on Q’s for you after this.

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