North County Coastal Market-Why so sticky?

[sdrealtor]

The multiple offers I see are being submitted by a pack of buyers who move from property to property. They bid when one comes up but most buyers only see one or two houses per month that interest at most. All the while the pack grows faster than it gets depleted.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I always expected the massive gov’t intervention and never gave much thought to what would happen without because in my mind that was a fairy tale. I agree it is happening everywhere but dont agree on the level of distress being as high here as elsewhere. I see nicer cars in lower end areas and pretty much everyone I know around here is very fiscally conservative. Alot of the upgraded homes were purchased long ago at prices a fraction of where we are now. Pulling $50 to 100K out of homes like that still leave LTV’s under 50%. Whenever I look at loan balances on any given street around here I see far more limited levels of potential distress than you would want to beleive. Hard as it may be to beleive, the vast majority of your neighbors are just as responsible as you are.[/quote]

Yes, many people are just fine, but many are not. I only know what I’m told, and if we were to divide our friends by owner/renter status, our renter (usually bubble-sitting) friends are far better off, as a group, than our “owner” friends. It’s just anecdotal, but it’s what we see here in SD and also in LA (where we grew up).

BTW, this (surprisingly large) group of renter-friends are all extremely well-qualified, so I have no doubt that they (well-qualified buyers) exist. I just think the distress in the “homeowner” households is greater than you do. Just a different perspective though.

I also knew the PTB would try to bail out the housing market (borrowers and lenders), but I’ve always thought their actions would have gravely negative consequences in the long run. IMHO, they are only making the problem greater, and they are pushing the problems onto those who did not behave irresponsibly. They are going to take **everyone** down instead of just letting the guilty parties (borrowers and lenders) suffer the consequences of their actions.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I always expected the massive gov’t intervention and never gave much thought to what would happen without because in my mind that was a fairy tale. I agree it is happening everywhere but dont agree on the level of distress being as high here as elsewhere. I see nicer cars in lower end areas and pretty much everyone I know around here is very fiscally conservative. Alot of the upgraded homes were purchased long ago at prices a fraction of where we are now. Pulling $50 to 100K out of homes like that still leave LTV’s under 50%. Whenever I look at loan balances on any given street around here I see far more limited levels of potential distress than you would want to beleive. Hard as it may be to beleive, the vast majority of your neighbors are just as responsible as you are.[/quote]

Yes, many people are just fine, but many are not. I only know what I’m told, and if we were to divide our friends by owner/renter status, our renter (usually bubble-sitting) friends are far better off, as a group, than our “owner” friends. It’s just anecdotal, but it’s what we see here in SD and also in LA (where we grew up).

BTW, this (surprisingly large) group of renter-friends are all extremely well-qualified, so I have no doubt that they (well-qualified buyers) exist. I just think the distress in the “homeowner” households is greater than you do. Just a different perspective though.

I also knew the PTB would try to bail out the housing market (borrowers and lenders), but I’ve always thought their actions would have gravely negative consequences in the long run. IMHO, they are only making the problem greater, and they are pushing the problems onto those who did not behave irresponsibly. They are going to take **everyone** down instead of just letting the guilty parties (borrowers and lenders) suffer the consequences of their actions.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I always expected the massive gov’t intervention and never gave much thought to what would happen without because in my mind that was a fairy tale. I agree it is happening everywhere but dont agree on the level of distress being as high here as elsewhere. I see nicer cars in lower end areas and pretty much everyone I know around here is very fiscally conservative. Alot of the upgraded homes were purchased long ago at prices a fraction of where we are now. Pulling $50 to 100K out of homes like that still leave LTV’s under 50%. Whenever I look at loan balances on any given street around here I see far more limited levels of potential distress than you would want to beleive. Hard as it may be to beleive, the vast majority of your neighbors are just as responsible as you are.[/quote]

Yes, many people are just fine, but many are not. I only know what I’m told, and if we were to divide our friends by owner/renter status, our renter (usually bubble-sitting) friends are far better off, as a group, than our “owner” friends. It’s just anecdotal, but it’s what we see here in SD and also in LA (where we grew up).

BTW, this (surprisingly large) group of renter-friends are all extremely well-qualified, so I have no doubt that they (well-qualified buyers) exist. I just think the distress in the “homeowner” households is greater than you do. Just a different perspective though.

I also knew the PTB would try to bail out the housing market (borrowers and lenders), but I’ve always thought their actions would have gravely negative consequences in the long run. IMHO, they are only making the problem greater, and they are pushing the problems onto those who did not behave irresponsibly. They are going to take **everyone** down instead of just letting the guilty parties (borrowers and lenders) suffer the consequences of their actions.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I always expected the massive gov’t intervention and never gave much thought to what would happen without because in my mind that was a fairy tale. I agree it is happening everywhere but dont agree on the level of distress being as high here as elsewhere. I see nicer cars in lower end areas and pretty much everyone I know around here is very fiscally conservative. Alot of the upgraded homes were purchased long ago at prices a fraction of where we are now. Pulling $50 to 100K out of homes like that still leave LTV’s under 50%. Whenever I look at loan balances on any given street around here I see far more limited levels of potential distress than you would want to beleive. Hard as it may be to beleive, the vast majority of your neighbors are just as responsible as you are.[/quote]

Yes, many people are just fine, but many are not. I only know what I’m told, and if we were to divide our friends by owner/renter status, our renter (usually bubble-sitting) friends are far better off, as a group, than our “owner” friends. It’s just anecdotal, but it’s what we see here in SD and also in LA (where we grew up).

BTW, this (surprisingly large) group of renter-friends are all extremely well-qualified, so I have no doubt that they (well-qualified buyers) exist. I just think the distress in the “homeowner” households is greater than you do. Just a different perspective though.

I also knew the PTB would try to bail out the housing market (borrowers and lenders), but I’ve always thought their actions would have gravely negative consequences in the long run. IMHO, they are only making the problem greater, and they are pushing the problems onto those who did not behave irresponsibly. They are going to take **everyone** down instead of just letting the guilty parties (borrowers and lenders) suffer the consequences of their actions.

[CA renter]

[quote=sdrealtor]I always expected the massive gov’t intervention and never gave much thought to what would happen without because in my mind that was a fairy tale. I agree it is happening everywhere but dont agree on the level of distress being as high here as elsewhere. I see nicer cars in lower end areas and pretty much everyone I know around here is very fiscally conservative. Alot of the upgraded homes were purchased long ago at prices a fraction of where we are now. Pulling $50 to 100K out of homes like that still leave LTV’s under 50%. Whenever I look at loan balances on any given street around here I see far more limited levels of potential distress than you would want to beleive. Hard as it may be to beleive, the vast majority of your neighbors are just as responsible as you are.[/quote]

Yes, many people are just fine, but many are not. I only know what I’m told, and if we were to divide our friends by owner/renter status, our renter (usually bubble-sitting) friends are far better off, as a group, than our “owner” friends. It’s just anecdotal, but it’s what we see here in SD and also in LA (where we grew up).

BTW, this (surprisingly large) group of renter-friends are all extremely well-qualified, so I have no doubt that they (well-qualified buyers) exist. I just think the distress in the “homeowner” households is greater than you do. Just a different perspective though.

I also knew the PTB would try to bail out the housing market (borrowers and lenders), but I’ve always thought their actions would have gravely negative consequences in the long run. IMHO, they are only making the problem greater, and they are pushing the problems onto those who did not behave irresponsibly. They are going to take **everyone** down instead of just letting the guilty parties (borrowers and lenders) suffer the consequences of their actions.

[temeculaguy]

Actually they aren’t taking anyone down, they are going to make a killing off this thing. If I had any faith in them, I’d say it was a masterful plan, but I think it’s just luck. The gov’t has bought quite a bit of this market (r/e, insurance, mbs) and those investments dont need to return to bubble levels for this to pay off, they just need to uptick a bit and stabilize somewhere between bubble and bottom, which they are well on their way to doing.

This is a casino game where the dealer always wins and one of the only games where you can bet on the dealer. They prefer it when everyone wins a little cause they tax the winnings.

If they can make a decent electric car over at government motors, they will have enough money to buy everyone health insurance. Maybe they did plan it? Naw.

[temeculaguy]

Actually they aren’t taking anyone down, they are going to make a killing off this thing. If I had any faith in them, I’d say it was a masterful plan, but I think it’s just luck. The gov’t has bought quite a bit of this market (r/e, insurance, mbs) and those investments dont need to return to bubble levels for this to pay off, they just need to uptick a bit and stabilize somewhere between bubble and bottom, which they are well on their way to doing.

This is a casino game where the dealer always wins and one of the only games where you can bet on the dealer. They prefer it when everyone wins a little cause they tax the winnings.

If they can make a decent electric car over at government motors, they will have enough money to buy everyone health insurance. Maybe they did plan it? Naw.

[temeculaguy]

Actually they aren’t taking anyone down, they are going to make a killing off this thing. If I had any faith in them, I’d say it was a masterful plan, but I think it’s just luck. The gov’t has bought quite a bit of this market (r/e, insurance, mbs) and those investments dont need to return to bubble levels for this to pay off, they just need to uptick a bit and stabilize somewhere between bubble and bottom, which they are well on their way to doing.

This is a casino game where the dealer always wins and one of the only games where you can bet on the dealer. They prefer it when everyone wins a little cause they tax the winnings.

If they can make a decent electric car over at government motors, they will have enough money to buy everyone health insurance. Maybe they did plan it? Naw.

[temeculaguy]

Actually they aren’t taking anyone down, they are going to make a killing off this thing. If I had any faith in them, I’d say it was a masterful plan, but I think it’s just luck. The gov’t has bought quite a bit of this market (r/e, insurance, mbs) and those investments dont need to return to bubble levels for this to pay off, they just need to uptick a bit and stabilize somewhere between bubble and bottom, which they are well on their way to doing.

This is a casino game where the dealer always wins and one of the only games where you can bet on the dealer. They prefer it when everyone wins a little cause they tax the winnings.

If they can make a decent electric car over at government motors, they will have enough money to buy everyone health insurance. Maybe they did plan it? Naw.

[temeculaguy]

Actually they aren’t taking anyone down, they are going to make a killing off this thing. If I had any faith in them, I’d say it was a masterful plan, but I think it’s just luck. The gov’t has bought quite a bit of this market (r/e, insurance, mbs) and those investments dont need to return to bubble levels for this to pay off, they just need to uptick a bit and stabilize somewhere between bubble and bottom, which they are well on their way to doing.

This is a casino game where the dealer always wins and one of the only games where you can bet on the dealer. They prefer it when everyone wins a little cause they tax the winnings.

If they can make a decent electric car over at government motors, they will have enough money to buy everyone health insurance. Maybe they did plan it? Naw.

[sdrealtor]

I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.

[sdrealtor]

I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.

[sdrealtor]

I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.

[sdrealtor]

I understand many are not. However plenty of struggling but otherwise responsible homeowners will make it through alive. In low income areas that got pummeled, housing was the lottery ticket to stop lving paycheck to paycheck. As soon as the ping pong balls were drawn and the ticket wasnt a winner they dropped it and ran. In the higher income areas people are more attached to their lifestyles, their communities, have other ways to make money, have savings, family support and thus more staying power to ride out the storm. There are plenty of folks out there just like us. Alot more than the irresponsible folks we loathe.

As bad as things look, it only takes a couple years of a booming economy piled on top of a devalued (ie inflated) currency and voila the unsurmountable vanishes. I’m not calling for that boom any time soon, but what would one do in 2020 after 50 to 75% nominal inflation since the peak in 2005/2006. Imagine 3 or 4 years of annual tax revenues double what they are today. They could sweep alot of this mess under the rug and that is what I beleive they will do. It’s just hard to imagine today.

[Author]

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