NODs in Carmel Valley…Immune? I think not…

[SD Realtor]

The desireability is 3 fold.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

While CV is not sdrealtors or cowboys choice, (nor is it my choice either) it is a desired destination for many folks, especially younger families.

(Actually I like a slice of the older developments in Del Mar Highlands but that is about it for me)

SD Realtor

[equalizer]

Cowboy,

I don’t know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor’s hangout, but it is “affordable” paradise.

[equalizer]

Cowboy,

I don’t know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor’s hangout, but it is “affordable” paradise.

[equalizer]

Cowboy,

I don’t know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor’s hangout, but it is “affordable” paradise.

[equalizer]

Cowboy,

I don’t know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor’s hangout, but it is “affordable” paradise.

[equalizer]

Cowboy,

I don’t know if have have traveled much, but north coastal region is very nice. CV is not as nice as sdrealtor’s hangout, but it is “affordable” paradise.

[jpinpb]

I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.

However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I’m sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.

The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.

Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn’t free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn’t risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)

All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.

So, though I admit I’m not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I’ll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.

[jpinpb]

I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.

However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I’m sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.

The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.

Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn’t free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn’t risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)

All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.

So, though I admit I’m not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I’ll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.

[jpinpb]

I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.

However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I’m sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.

The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.

Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn’t free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn’t risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)

All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.

So, though I admit I’m not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I’ll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.

[jpinpb]

I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.

However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I’m sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.

The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.

Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn’t free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn’t risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)

All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.

So, though I admit I’m not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I’ll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.

[jpinpb]

I am not looking to buy in CV. I have not been following the market very closely up there.

However, FWIW, I used to live in CV from 1991 to 2001. I can tell you that during the RE slump back then, I saw prices fall 20% in a blink. I’m sure CV was just as desireable then w/its schools and location, etc. etc.

The incline in price back then was not nearly as great as this last cycle and it was not nearly as developed as it is now, yet they saw 20% declines.

Back then there were no special loans being utilized. There wasn’t free money being given away. You had to put money down. You had to prove you can make payments. Most loans were 30-yr fixed, though they did have ARMs, but back then rates were high and one didn’t risk taking an ARM for fear of rates rising. (Mine was 9 3/4 before refinancing years later)

All the stringent, normal loan requirements and they still had a 20% decline.

So, though I admit I’m not very up on CV nowadays, but seems to me probably people were availing themselves of our special free money financing to buy these newly developed McMansions in CV. And since CV does not live in a vacuum any more than LJ or PB, and they were subjected to bubblicious prices, well, I’ll stick my neck out and say there will be some declines on the SFHs there as well. They participated in the bubble. They will suffer the consequences as well. Just will take time.

[equalizer]

Who I watch on CNBC:

Ron Insana, Barry Ritholtz and Fleckenstein, the bear trifecta, not the permabull Kudlow.

So, what am I missing? There may be financial pain for 50-80% of families, but the top 10-20% have tremendous assets and can still buy what they want. BMW, Mercedes, Lexus sales are down 3-8% year over year, but look back at early 90’s with 9% unemployment in San Diego and how much did coastal properties drop? 20-30%. We have less than 6% unemployment now, so unless we have big recession, CV prices should not fall 50%. While ARMs are much bigger part, most people have likely refinanced by now. If you have valid points I’ve missed please elaborate.

April 2008 car sales:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/april-car-sales-us-consumers-flock-to-cars-gouging-detroit-three.html

[equalizer]

Who I watch on CNBC:

Ron Insana, Barry Ritholtz and Fleckenstein, the bear trifecta, not the permabull Kudlow.

So, what am I missing? There may be financial pain for 50-80% of families, but the top 10-20% have tremendous assets and can still buy what they want. BMW, Mercedes, Lexus sales are down 3-8% year over year, but look back at early 90’s with 9% unemployment in San Diego and how much did coastal properties drop? 20-30%. We have less than 6% unemployment now, so unless we have big recession, CV prices should not fall 50%. While ARMs are much bigger part, most people have likely refinanced by now. If you have valid points I’ve missed please elaborate.

April 2008 car sales:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/april-car-sales-us-consumers-flock-to-cars-gouging-detroit-three.html

[equalizer]

Who I watch on CNBC:

Ron Insana, Barry Ritholtz and Fleckenstein, the bear trifecta, not the permabull Kudlow.

So, what am I missing? There may be financial pain for 50-80% of families, but the top 10-20% have tremendous assets and can still buy what they want. BMW, Mercedes, Lexus sales are down 3-8% year over year, but look back at early 90’s with 9% unemployment in San Diego and how much did coastal properties drop? 20-30%. We have less than 6% unemployment now, so unless we have big recession, CV prices should not fall 50%. While ARMs are much bigger part, most people have likely refinanced by now. If you have valid points I’ve missed please elaborate.

April 2008 car sales:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/april-car-sales-us-consumers-flock-to-cars-gouging-detroit-three.html

[equalizer]

Who I watch on CNBC:

Ron Insana, Barry Ritholtz and Fleckenstein, the bear trifecta, not the permabull Kudlow.

So, what am I missing? There may be financial pain for 50-80% of families, but the top 10-20% have tremendous assets and can still buy what they want. BMW, Mercedes, Lexus sales are down 3-8% year over year, but look back at early 90’s with 9% unemployment in San Diego and how much did coastal properties drop? 20-30%. We have less than 6% unemployment now, so unless we have big recession, CV prices should not fall 50%. While ARMs are much bigger part, most people have likely refinanced by now. If you have valid points I’ve missed please elaborate.

April 2008 car sales:
http://www.autoobserver.com/2008/05/april-car-sales-us-consumers-flock-to-cars-gouging-detroit-three.html

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