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  • May 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM #214887
    Bugs
    Participant

    Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

    We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:06 PM #214735
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.

    While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I’m not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.

    I dont relie on anyone’s research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox……

    May 31, 2008 at 2:06 PM #214811
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.

    While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I’m not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.

    I dont relie on anyone’s research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox……

    May 31, 2008 at 2:06 PM #214836
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.

    While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I’m not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.

    I dont relie on anyone’s research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox……

    May 31, 2008 at 2:06 PM #214862
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.

    While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I’m not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.

    I dont relie on anyone’s research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox……

    May 31, 2008 at 2:06 PM #214892
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Think back a little in time and there were essentially NO defaults anywhere. Prices were rising and anyone could refi out of trouble. Times is a different now. We all know that.

    While there are defaults in each of those communities you mentioned in CV, there seemed to be 1 or at most 2 in each. Hardly the sign of widespread panic. I’m not claiming it isnt coming but rather that it isnt here yet.

    I dont relie on anyone’s research of the market only my own as I havent found any other Realtors with the analytical skills and experience I have (CPA, master degree in Financial Analysis, significant statistical and market research experience etc.) There are so many flaws in the data its not even worth getting into. The only way to really understand what is going on is to follow a micro market very closely and understand how to adjust for the unique differencews between each home/data point. Off my soapbox……

    May 31, 2008 at 2:17 PM #214740
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Looks like Bugs was pointing out the same thing as I but a bit more succintly while I was typing away.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:17 PM #214816
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Looks like Bugs was pointing out the same thing as I but a bit more succintly while I was typing away.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:17 PM #214841
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Looks like Bugs was pointing out the same thing as I but a bit more succintly while I was typing away.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:17 PM #214867
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Looks like Bugs was pointing out the same thing as I but a bit more succintly while I was typing away.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:17 PM #214897
    sdrealtor
    Participant

    Looks like Bugs was pointing out the same thing as I but a bit more succintly while I was typing away.

    May 31, 2008 at 5:53 PM #214770
    New_Renter
    Participant

    Bugs, it’s good to hear your input on this (I respect your opinion as much as RT himself!). I never claimed that these growing CV foreclosures were causing any price action…yet. It is helpful to hear your observation that the 25% to 30% level of total sales is the trigger point for foreclosures driving the pricing. All I’m really saying is that this increasing number of NOD’s in the prime areas of CV does not bode well for this “Sacred Cow.” At the high-end, seller behaviour indicates many are still in “la la land”. I’m in the fortunate position of being able to buy anywhere and at anytime I choose in CV, but all the data is telling me the next 12-24 months won’t be pretty, so renting still feels good for the time being. I really appreciate (as we all do) the inputs on this blog from everyone, including sdrealtor, SD Realtor, asianautica, raptorduck, yourself, and all the others.

    May 31, 2008 at 5:53 PM #214847
    New_Renter
    Participant

    Bugs, it’s good to hear your input on this (I respect your opinion as much as RT himself!). I never claimed that these growing CV foreclosures were causing any price action…yet. It is helpful to hear your observation that the 25% to 30% level of total sales is the trigger point for foreclosures driving the pricing. All I’m really saying is that this increasing number of NOD’s in the prime areas of CV does not bode well for this “Sacred Cow.” At the high-end, seller behaviour indicates many are still in “la la land”. I’m in the fortunate position of being able to buy anywhere and at anytime I choose in CV, but all the data is telling me the next 12-24 months won’t be pretty, so renting still feels good for the time being. I really appreciate (as we all do) the inputs on this blog from everyone, including sdrealtor, SD Realtor, asianautica, raptorduck, yourself, and all the others.

    May 31, 2008 at 5:53 PM #214871
    New_Renter
    Participant

    Bugs, it’s good to hear your input on this (I respect your opinion as much as RT himself!). I never claimed that these growing CV foreclosures were causing any price action…yet. It is helpful to hear your observation that the 25% to 30% level of total sales is the trigger point for foreclosures driving the pricing. All I’m really saying is that this increasing number of NOD’s in the prime areas of CV does not bode well for this “Sacred Cow.” At the high-end, seller behaviour indicates many are still in “la la land”. I’m in the fortunate position of being able to buy anywhere and at anytime I choose in CV, but all the data is telling me the next 12-24 months won’t be pretty, so renting still feels good for the time being. I really appreciate (as we all do) the inputs on this blog from everyone, including sdrealtor, SD Realtor, asianautica, raptorduck, yourself, and all the others.

    May 31, 2008 at 5:53 PM #214899
    New_Renter
    Participant

    Bugs, it’s good to hear your input on this (I respect your opinion as much as RT himself!). I never claimed that these growing CV foreclosures were causing any price action…yet. It is helpful to hear your observation that the 25% to 30% level of total sales is the trigger point for foreclosures driving the pricing. All I’m really saying is that this increasing number of NOD’s in the prime areas of CV does not bode well for this “Sacred Cow.” At the high-end, seller behaviour indicates many are still in “la la land”. I’m in the fortunate position of being able to buy anywhere and at anytime I choose in CV, but all the data is telling me the next 12-24 months won’t be pretty, so renting still feels good for the time being. I really appreciate (as we all do) the inputs on this blog from everyone, including sdrealtor, SD Realtor, asianautica, raptorduck, yourself, and all the others.

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