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  • May 31, 2008 at 10:46 AM #214838
    equalizer
    Participant

    I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?

    May 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM #214690
    JWM in SD
    Participant

    “Unless we have big recession…”

    Uh, try getting your econ knowledge from somewhere else besides CNBC.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM #214769
    JWM in SD
    Participant

    “Unless we have big recession…”

    Uh, try getting your econ knowledge from somewhere else besides CNBC.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM #214791
    JWM in SD
    Participant

    “Unless we have big recession…”

    Uh, try getting your econ knowledge from somewhere else besides CNBC.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM #214819
    JWM in SD
    Participant

    “Unless we have big recession…”

    Uh, try getting your econ knowledge from somewhere else besides CNBC.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:05 AM #214849
    JWM in SD
    Participant

    “Unless we have big recession…”

    Uh, try getting your econ knowledge from somewhere else besides CNBC.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM #214700
    New_Renter
    Participant

    asianautica, I’m not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD’s in CV were “negligible”. Come’on, let’s get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little…if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don’t know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM #214779
    New_Renter
    Participant

    asianautica, I’m not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD’s in CV were “negligible”. Come’on, let’s get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little…if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don’t know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM #214802
    New_Renter
    Participant

    asianautica, I’m not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD’s in CV were “negligible”. Come’on, let’s get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little…if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don’t know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM #214828
    New_Renter
    Participant

    asianautica, I’m not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD’s in CV were “negligible”. Come’on, let’s get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little…if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don’t know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.

    May 31, 2008 at 11:42 AM #214859
    New_Renter
    Participant

    asianautica, I’m not the one being defensive here, I was taking exception to the earlier post that the NOD’s in CV were “negligible”. Come’on, let’s get real, during the boom there were essentially NO defaults in CV. Think back in time a little…if you suggested to someone, even in 2006, that there would be 30 SFR defaults in the prime areas of CV, they would commit you to an insane asylum. Your point is well taken though on the trend, it would be good to see a CV specific NOD multi-year trend graph. I don’t know how to go back in time and get this. Can anyone help? Maybe Jim-the-Realtor, he seems to be one of the best at digging into the data.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM #214730
    Bugs
    Participant

    Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

    We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM #214806
    Bugs
    Participant

    Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

    We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM #214831
    Bugs
    Participant

    Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

    We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

    May 31, 2008 at 2:00 PM #214858
    Bugs
    Participant

    Based on my experience during the last bust as well as what I’m seeing in this bust, I am of the opinion that the foreclosures don’t start driving the pricing until they pass 25% or 30% of the total sales. Once that happens the lenders start competing with each other instead of with the discretionary sellers. That’s when they get more agressive in their discounting.

    We’re obviously not at that point yet, but I’m pretty confident we’ll get there within the next year or so.

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