NODs in Carmel Valley…Immune? I think not…

[New_Renter]

sdrealtor: ForeclosureRadar.com is the best source I have found for NOD/NOT’s (recommend it over Foreclosure.com for it’s better u/i). Jim the Realtor easily found them as well, so I’m not sure why you are having trouble. It is clearly highly accurate, as you can see the full public record (i.e. names, loan amts…everything)

Sorry asianautica, but this is beyond what has ever been seen in CV, and the difference recently is that the NOD’s are in “PRIME” developments. Currently there are active NOD’s in: Meadows Del Mar, Private Collection, Promontory, Vista Santa Barabara, Santa Barbara, Monte Claire, Triple Crown, Steeplechase, Collins Ranch, Santa Rosa, among others. All scheduled for future auction on the courthouse steps. Now, not all of these will actually be foreclosed on, but a high percentage will. I could throw the addresses of these properties up here right now, but if your really curious, get a trial to ForeclosureRadar and see for yourself. It is easy to do.

I am really tired of the “but, but, but” (i.e. but, but 54 are attached, but, but there were strong Pendings last month, but, but CV is great….). Be clear, I’m not cheerleading what is happening, I’m simply telling it like it is. I’m tired of the sugar-coating, I’m tired of the Realtor industry gloming onto a single positive stat and then cheerleading and grandstanding it to death without informing people of the big picture. I’m tired of the RE industry pulling the wool over everyone’s eyes.

For the record: I do agree with sdrealtor and SD Realtor that buying right now is a purely personal decision and that there are ALWAYS going to be people deciding to pull the trigger for a myriad of reasons, no matter the market conditions and how poor the outlook. It’s emotional. You can’t argue that, but while a personal decision to buy now may be the right decision for an individual, it doesn’t mean it was a smart decision financially, or free from significant risk.

[SD Realtor]

Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don’t think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.

Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim’s work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.

Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don’t think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.

Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim’s work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.

Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don’t think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.

Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim’s work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.

Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don’t think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.

Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim’s work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.

Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.

SD Realtor

[SD Realtor]

Well I would agree there is alot of cheerleading in the industry, that is sure the truth. I don’t think any of the regular realtors who post here fall into that category though. Yeah we get the trolls who divebomb in from time to time.

Before bed last night I went into the Realist search and did the foreclosure search within Realist. Indeed 84 properties did come up in Carmel Valley. I did not parse through them individually to to figure out attached verses detached but I know Jim’s work is accurate and I do read his posts. While not all of these distressed properties are on the market it is more then likely that most of them will be eventually. I find that there is a high rate of recidivism for people who fall behind in mortgage payments.

Again, my read is that CV is doing what CV should do. Similarly the properties that get priced even a tad aggressively seem to get scooped up pretty quick. There is no argument that even those that get scooped up have depreciated so that is an encouraging trend to see. So in short it will happen, or shall we say, it IS happening and it will continue to do so. More raindrops will come in the form of more distressed properties and in a few years we will be able to look back and hopefully find some big 20-30% numbers off of CV.

SD Realtor

[an]

New_Renter, there’s no “but” from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site’s motto. If this is the first data point, great, we’ll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.

[an]

New_Renter, there’s no “but” from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site’s motto. If this is the first data point, great, we’ll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.

[an]

New_Renter, there’s no “but” from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site’s motto. If this is the first data point, great, we’ll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.

[an]

New_Renter, there’s no “but” from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site’s motto. If this is the first data point, great, we’ll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.

[an]

New_Renter, there’s no “but” from me, just asking for more data to determine a trend. 1 data point does not create a trend, we all should know that. We all already know the condo market in CV is very different than the SFR in CV, nothing new. Stop getting so defensive. We all are hear to analyze the data, hence the site’s motto. If this is the first data point, great, we’ll keep an eye on it to see if it affects the CV market sooner or later. Will CV fall the way MM did 2-3 years from now? No one knows, but we can make educated guess base on the data trickling in every day.

[equalizer]

I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?

[equalizer]

I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?

[equalizer]

I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?

[equalizer]

I have doubts single family homes in CV will fall more than 10-15%. Compare them to condos in downtown that are still in a huge bubble. I know it is a cliche, but for rich foriegners paying a $1M for beautiful home in paradise is a bargain when they are used to living in a 2 bedroom flat. Just how many can make it over here is the big question. CV is very desirable area and we had an old thread that stated that 10% of San Diego households are millionaires, excluding homes. At least 2% of the jobs in the area are very high paying, many families are dual professional incomes, many people have cashed out and waiting to buy in CV. Unless we have big recession and people dump cell phones and other gadgets, why would anything change?

[Author]

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