NODs in Carmel Valley…Immune? I think not…

[Coronita]

I have been watching my little area in Torrey Hills closely, and am puzzled by the small declines seen thus far.

I have formed an alternate theory that may explain the stickiness. In Silicon Valley there is a city, Cupertino, that is heavily Chinese. The city has no real redeeming value besides high test scores in the schools, at least relative to any of the other cities in the area. For some reason, Cupertino became a magnet for higher income Chinese professionals (the lower income go to Milpitas, across the valley). The result is that housing prices in Cupertino are, for the quality of what you get (mediocre 1970's era tract houses), quite high.

I am wondering if the same thing has happened to Carmel Valley and Torrey Hills, especially as I watched a parade of Chinese marching through open houses in this neighborhood, and recent house sales going to Chinese families.

I do not know whether this is significant, or even correct, but if it is, what does it mean for real estate values in the area long term?

 

Trust me,

Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino's 🙂 Bay area has a huge asian population. San Diego is nothing compared to it.

BTW: contrary to popular belief, asian's aren't really "richer" than everyone else. Perhaps, statistically, more are better at money management and better savers/penny pinchers. There is more of an emphasis on a "need" to buy a house versus rent.

 

 

 

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—– Sour grapes for everyone!

[Eugene]

It’s been discussed before. CV and 4S are on a different timeline from everyone else. CV and 4S buyers have low inherent levels of distress. You won’t have high numbers of defaults in there until a) 2004-2005 neg-ams start resetting, or b) prices fall low enough to put large numbers of 2004+ buyers underwater – you need a 20% decline at least. Scenario a) will be realized in late 2009, scenario b) may be realized sooner if supports for CV/4S give up (Mira Mesa, RP, RB) and potential 4S buyers are diverted into RP bargains.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

There’s a price tag on everything. Would you pay $200,000 more to live in a new house? How about $400,000? Would you pay $100,000 to cut your commute by 10 min one way? Would you rather have a new 3000 sf house with 800 sf backyard in 4S ($700,000 purchase price, $300/month mello-roos), or a 30-year-old 1800 sf house with 4000 sf backyard in RP ($450,000 purchase price, no mello-roos)? Are schools in CV so much better than in RP that you can justify buying in CV for double the price?

You can ask the same questions wrt. RP versus Mira Mesa.

Under normal conditions this would set a certain price difference between all communities. If you have a subprime bubble at the low end and it pushes Mira Mesa into 500’s and RP into 600’s, 4S has no choice but to appreciate. If it bursts and Mira Mesa falls back into 300’s, other areas will be dragged in, sooner or later.

[Eugene]

It’s been discussed before. CV and 4S are on a different timeline from everyone else. CV and 4S buyers have low inherent levels of distress. You won’t have high numbers of defaults in there until a) 2004-2005 neg-ams start resetting, or b) prices fall low enough to put large numbers of 2004+ buyers underwater – you need a 20% decline at least. Scenario a) will be realized in late 2009, scenario b) may be realized sooner if supports for CV/4S give up (Mira Mesa, RP, RB) and potential 4S buyers are diverted into RP bargains.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

There’s a price tag on everything. Would you pay $200,000 more to live in a new house? How about $400,000? Would you pay $100,000 to cut your commute by 10 min one way? Would you rather have a new 3000 sf house with 800 sf backyard in 4S ($700,000 purchase price, $300/month mello-roos), or a 30-year-old 1800 sf house with 4000 sf backyard in RP ($450,000 purchase price, no mello-roos)? Are schools in CV so much better than in RP that you can justify buying in CV for double the price?

You can ask the same questions wrt. RP versus Mira Mesa.

Under normal conditions this would set a certain price difference between all communities. If you have a subprime bubble at the low end and it pushes Mira Mesa into 500’s and RP into 600’s, 4S has no choice but to appreciate. If it bursts and Mira Mesa falls back into 300’s, other areas will be dragged in, sooner or later.

[Eugene]

It’s been discussed before. CV and 4S are on a different timeline from everyone else. CV and 4S buyers have low inherent levels of distress. You won’t have high numbers of defaults in there until a) 2004-2005 neg-ams start resetting, or b) prices fall low enough to put large numbers of 2004+ buyers underwater – you need a 20% decline at least. Scenario a) will be realized in late 2009, scenario b) may be realized sooner if supports for CV/4S give up (Mira Mesa, RP, RB) and potential 4S buyers are diverted into RP bargains.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

There’s a price tag on everything. Would you pay $200,000 more to live in a new house? How about $400,000? Would you pay $100,000 to cut your commute by 10 min one way? Would you rather have a new 3000 sf house with 800 sf backyard in 4S ($700,000 purchase price, $300/month mello-roos), or a 30-year-old 1800 sf house with 4000 sf backyard in RP ($450,000 purchase price, no mello-roos)? Are schools in CV so much better than in RP that you can justify buying in CV for double the price?

You can ask the same questions wrt. RP versus Mira Mesa.

Under normal conditions this would set a certain price difference between all communities. If you have a subprime bubble at the low end and it pushes Mira Mesa into 500’s and RP into 600’s, 4S has no choice but to appreciate. If it bursts and Mira Mesa falls back into 300’s, other areas will be dragged in, sooner or later.

[Eugene]

It’s been discussed before. CV and 4S are on a different timeline from everyone else. CV and 4S buyers have low inherent levels of distress. You won’t have high numbers of defaults in there until a) 2004-2005 neg-ams start resetting, or b) prices fall low enough to put large numbers of 2004+ buyers underwater – you need a 20% decline at least. Scenario a) will be realized in late 2009, scenario b) may be realized sooner if supports for CV/4S give up (Mira Mesa, RP, RB) and potential 4S buyers are diverted into RP bargains.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

There’s a price tag on everything. Would you pay $200,000 more to live in a new house? How about $400,000? Would you pay $100,000 to cut your commute by 10 min one way? Would you rather have a new 3000 sf house with 800 sf backyard in 4S ($700,000 purchase price, $300/month mello-roos), or a 30-year-old 1800 sf house with 4000 sf backyard in RP ($450,000 purchase price, no mello-roos)? Are schools in CV so much better than in RP that you can justify buying in CV for double the price?

You can ask the same questions wrt. RP versus Mira Mesa.

Under normal conditions this would set a certain price difference between all communities. If you have a subprime bubble at the low end and it pushes Mira Mesa into 500’s and RP into 600’s, 4S has no choice but to appreciate. If it bursts and Mira Mesa falls back into 300’s, other areas will be dragged in, sooner or later.

[Eugene]

It’s been discussed before. CV and 4S are on a different timeline from everyone else. CV and 4S buyers have low inherent levels of distress. You won’t have high numbers of defaults in there until a) 2004-2005 neg-ams start resetting, or b) prices fall low enough to put large numbers of 2004+ buyers underwater – you need a 20% decline at least. Scenario a) will be realized in late 2009, scenario b) may be realized sooner if supports for CV/4S give up (Mira Mesa, RP, RB) and potential 4S buyers are diverted into RP bargains.

School District, New Homes, Proximity to engineering and biotech jobs in the triangle. If you want a the first of those two items (or at least a home built in the past 7 years) you are limited to CV or else your next stop Torrey Highlands, then all the development off Camino Del Sur up to 4S.

There’s a price tag on everything. Would you pay $200,000 more to live in a new house? How about $400,000? Would you pay $100,000 to cut your commute by 10 min one way? Would you rather have a new 3000 sf house with 800 sf backyard in 4S ($700,000 purchase price, $300/month mello-roos), or a 30-year-old 1800 sf house with 4000 sf backyard in RP ($450,000 purchase price, no mello-roos)? Are schools in CV so much better than in RP that you can justify buying in CV for double the price?

You can ask the same questions wrt. RP versus Mira Mesa.

Under normal conditions this would set a certain price difference between all communities. If you have a subprime bubble at the low end and it pushes Mira Mesa into 500’s and RP into 600’s, 4S has no choice but to appreciate. If it bursts and Mira Mesa falls back into 300’s, other areas will be dragged in, sooner or later.

[equalizer]

FLU,

Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino’s means what? That Cupertino’s are much better?

Yes, Asian’s don’t have higher incomes, but they generally are careful with their purchases. So the non-Asian takes out a equity loan to get pool and 50K Beemer, while the Asian buys the Camry and Accord. Many Asians dont feel the need to show off in that matter, only in educational, professional and classical music pursuits. It is good to have diversity, otherwise half the stores in the USA would close overnight.

[equalizer]

FLU,

Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino’s means what? That Cupertino’s are much better?

Yes, Asian’s don’t have higher incomes, but they generally are careful with their purchases. So the non-Asian takes out a equity loan to get pool and 50K Beemer, while the Asian buys the Camry and Accord. Many Asians dont feel the need to show off in that matter, only in educational, professional and classical music pursuits. It is good to have diversity, otherwise half the stores in the USA would close overnight.

[equalizer]

FLU,

Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino’s means what? That Cupertino’s are much better?

Yes, Asian’s don’t have higher incomes, but they generally are careful with their purchases. So the non-Asian takes out a equity loan to get pool and 50K Beemer, while the Asian buys the Camry and Accord. Many Asians dont feel the need to show off in that matter, only in educational, professional and classical music pursuits. It is good to have diversity, otherwise half the stores in the USA would close overnight.

[equalizer]

FLU,

Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino’s means what? That Cupertino’s are much better?

Yes, Asian’s don’t have higher incomes, but they generally are careful with their purchases. So the non-Asian takes out a equity loan to get pool and 50K Beemer, while the Asian buys the Camry and Accord. Many Asians dont feel the need to show off in that matter, only in educational, professional and classical music pursuits. It is good to have diversity, otherwise half the stores in the USA would close overnight.

[equalizer]

FLU,

Carmel Valley schools are not Cupertino’s means what? That Cupertino’s are much better?

Yes, Asian’s don’t have higher incomes, but they generally are careful with their purchases. So the non-Asian takes out a equity loan to get pool and 50K Beemer, while the Asian buys the Camry and Accord. Many Asians dont feel the need to show off in that matter, only in educational, professional and classical music pursuits. It is good to have diversity, otherwise half the stores in the USA would close overnight.

[Fearful]

I think FLUB was saying that the Chinese concentration in Cupertino is far higher than Carmel Valley’s are now. I believe that.

Maybe Carmel Valley is where Cupertino was ten or fifteen years ago. My small sample – the local Torrey Hills neighborhood – shows white families moving out and Chinese moving in.

I wonder whether shudders in the Chinese economy might increase or decrease capital movement to these neighborhoods. I think some argue that any movement in the yuan / $ exchange rate would only be in the direction of yuan stronger.

I care less about living in a neighborhood with a bunch of Asians – some of my best friends are Asian, har har – than I do the neighborhood property values being supported by a relatively arbitrary preference. Then again, I do not think white people’s preferences for neighborhoods are a whole lot less arbitrary!

[Fearful]

I think FLUB was saying that the Chinese concentration in Cupertino is far higher than Carmel Valley’s are now. I believe that.

Maybe Carmel Valley is where Cupertino was ten or fifteen years ago. My small sample – the local Torrey Hills neighborhood – shows white families moving out and Chinese moving in.

I wonder whether shudders in the Chinese economy might increase or decrease capital movement to these neighborhoods. I think some argue that any movement in the yuan / $ exchange rate would only be in the direction of yuan stronger.

I care less about living in a neighborhood with a bunch of Asians – some of my best friends are Asian, har har – than I do the neighborhood property values being supported by a relatively arbitrary preference. Then again, I do not think white people’s preferences for neighborhoods are a whole lot less arbitrary!

[Fearful]

I think FLUB was saying that the Chinese concentration in Cupertino is far higher than Carmel Valley’s are now. I believe that.

Maybe Carmel Valley is where Cupertino was ten or fifteen years ago. My small sample – the local Torrey Hills neighborhood – shows white families moving out and Chinese moving in.

I wonder whether shudders in the Chinese economy might increase or decrease capital movement to these neighborhoods. I think some argue that any movement in the yuan / $ exchange rate would only be in the direction of yuan stronger.

I care less about living in a neighborhood with a bunch of Asians – some of my best friends are Asian, har har – than I do the neighborhood property values being supported by a relatively arbitrary preference. Then again, I do not think white people’s preferences for neighborhoods are a whole lot less arbitrary!

[Fearful]

I think FLUB was saying that the Chinese concentration in Cupertino is far higher than Carmel Valley’s are now. I believe that.

Maybe Carmel Valley is where Cupertino was ten or fifteen years ago. My small sample – the local Torrey Hills neighborhood – shows white families moving out and Chinese moving in.

I wonder whether shudders in the Chinese economy might increase or decrease capital movement to these neighborhoods. I think some argue that any movement in the yuan / $ exchange rate would only be in the direction of yuan stronger.

I care less about living in a neighborhood with a bunch of Asians – some of my best friends are Asian, har har – than I do the neighborhood property values being supported by a relatively arbitrary preference. Then again, I do not think white people’s preferences for neighborhoods are a whole lot less arbitrary!

[Author]

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